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Predicting Pandemics in a Globally Connected World, Volume 1

Part of the Modeling and Simulation in Science, Engineering and Technology Book Series

Editors: Bellomo, Nicola; Chaplain, Mark A. J.

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-96562-4

ISBN: 978-3-030-96561-7

Publisher: Springer International Publishing - Springer Journals

Feb 18, 2022

1 - 10 of 10 Chapters

Available

Modelling, Simulations, and Social Impact of Evolutionary Virus Pandemics

Bellomo, Nicola; Burini, Diletta; Chaplain, Mark A. J.; Outada, Nisrine

Pages: 1 –10

[This chapter provides an introduction to the contents of this edited book which is devoted to the modelling and simulation of mutating virus pandemics in a globally connected world. The presentation is proposed in three parts. Firstly we report about motivations and objectives of the edited book...
Available

Understanding COVID-19 Epidemics: A Multi-Scale Modeling Approach

Aguiar, Maíra; Anam, Vizda; Cusimano, Nicole; Knopoff, Damián; Stollenwerk, Nico

Pages: 11 –42

[COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization in March 2020 and, since then, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease spreading and control under different scenarios. In this chapter, two...
Available

Kinetic Modelling of Epidemic Dynamics: Social Contacts, Control with Uncertain Data, and Multiscale Spatial Dynamics

Albi, Giacomo; Bertaglia, Giulia; Boscheri, Walter; Dimarco, Giacomo; Pareschi, Lorenzo; Toscani, Giuseppe; Zanella, Mattia

Pages: 43 –108

[In this survey we report some recent results in the mathematical modelling of epidemic phenomena through the use of kinetic equations. We initially consider models of interaction between agents in which social characteristics play a key role in the spread of an epidemic, such as the age of...
Available

The COVID-19 Pandemic Evolution in Hawai‘i and New Jersey: A Lesson on Infection Transmissibility and the Role of Human Behavior

Allred, Sarah; Chyba, Monique; Hyman, James M.; Mileyko, Yuriy; Piccoli, Benedetto

Pages: 109 –140

[In this chapter we analyze the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, with specific focus on the states of Hawai‘i and New Jersey. The two states represent extreme cases, with the archipelagos reachable mainly by flights thus a contained environment, while the garden state located between two...
Available

A Novel Point Process Model for COVID-19: Multivariate Recursive Hawkes Process

Chen, Bohan; Shrestha, Pujan; Bertozzi, Andrea L.; Mohler, George; Schoenberg, Frederic

Pages: 141 –182

[This chapter presents a novel point process model for COVID-19 transmission—the multivariate recursive Hawkes process, which is an extension of the recursive Hawkes model to the multivariate case. Equivalently the model can be viewed as an extension of the multivariate Hawkes model to allow for...
Available

Multiscale Aspects of Virus Dynamics

Flandoli, Franco; Fauci, Eleonora La; Riva, Martina

Pages: 183 –212

[Virus dynamics is certainly a multiscale problem, involving changes at the single individual level, interaction between individuals and cumulative changes at societal scale. The chapter deals with the multiscale nature of virus dynamics focusing on the link between macroscopic compartmental...
Available

Productivity in Times of Covid-19: An Agent-Based Model Approach

Fontanari, José F.

Pages: 213 –231

[Whereas the economic consequences of the physical distancing measures to control the transmission of Covid-19 are familiar, their effects on people’s mental well-being and the subsequent influence on work productivity are largely unknown. In this chapter, we introduce an agent-based model of a...
Available

Transmission Dynamics and Quarantine Control of COVID-19 in Cluster Community

Gao, Qingwu; Zhuang, Jun; Wu, Ting; Shen, Houcai

Pages: 233 –264

[Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a zoonotic illness which has spread rapidly and widely in past two years and was identified as a global pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The pandemic to date has been characterized by ongoing cluster community transmission. Quarantine...
Available

A 2D Kinetic Model for Crowd Dynamics with Disease Contagion

Kim, Daewa; Quaini, Annalisa

Pages: 265 –284

[We focus on the modeling and simulation of an infectious disease spreading in a medium size population occupying a confined environment, such as an airport terminal, for short periods of time. Because of the size of the crowd and venue, we opt for a kinetic type model. The chapter is divided...
Available

Multiscale Derivation of a Time-Dependent SEIRD Reaction–Diffusion System for COVID-19

Zagour, Mohamed

Pages: 285 –306

[A time-dependent Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Died reaction–diffusion system for the virus pandemic is proposed in this chapter. The macroscopic model is derived from the underlining description delivered by a kinetic theory model. The approach is based on a multiscale decomposition...

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