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/lp/american-economic-association/fiscal-policy-multipliers-on-subnational-government-spending-R3U5IaB8u0
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Copyright
- Copyright © 2012 by the American Economic Association
- Subject
- Articles
- ISSN
- 1945-7731
- eISSN
- 1945-774x
- DOI
- 10.1257/pol.4.2.46
- Publisher site
- See Article on Publisher Site
Abstract
Abstract Balanced budget requirements lead to substantial pro-cyclicality in state government spending, with the stringency of a state's rules driving the pace at which it must adjust to shocks. We show that fiscal institutions can generate natural experiments in deficit-financed spending that are informative regarding fiscal stabilization policy. Alternative sources of variation in subnational fiscal policy often implicitly involve “windfall” financing, which precludes any effect of future debt or taxation on current consumption and investment. Consistent with a role for these “Ricardian” effects, our estimates are smaller than those in related studies, implying an on-impact multiplier below 1. (JEL C51 , E32 , E62 , H72 )
Journal
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy – American Economic Association
Published: May 1, 2012