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Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back †

Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back † Abstract Using 50,000 tests published in the AER, JPE, and QJE, we identify a residual in the distribution of tests that cannot be explained solely by journals favoring rejection of the null hypothesis. We observe a two-humped camel shape with missing p-values between 0.25 and 0.10 that can be retrieved just after the 0.05 threshold and represent 10–20 percent of marginally rejected tests. Our interpretation is that researchers inflate the value of just-rejected tests by choosing “significant” specifications. We propose a method to measure this residual and describe how it varies by article and author characteristics. (JEL A11, C13 ) http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png American Economic Journal: Applied Economics American Economic Association

Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back †

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Publisher
American Economic Association
Copyright
Copyright © 2016 by the American Economic Association
Subject
Articles
ISSN
1945-7790
eISSN
1945-7790
DOI
10.1257/app.20150044
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Abstract Using 50,000 tests published in the AER, JPE, and QJE, we identify a residual in the distribution of tests that cannot be explained solely by journals favoring rejection of the null hypothesis. We observe a two-humped camel shape with missing p-values between 0.25 and 0.10 that can be retrieved just after the 0.05 threshold and represent 10–20 percent of marginally rejected tests. Our interpretation is that researchers inflate the value of just-rejected tests by choosing “significant” specifications. We propose a method to measure this residual and describe how it varies by article and author characteristics. (JEL A11, C13 )

Journal

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics – American Economic Association

Published: Jan 1, 2016

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