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The Incapacitation Effect of Incarceration: Evidence from Several Italian Collective Pardons †

The Incapacitation Effect of Incarceration: Evidence from Several Italian Collective Pardons † Abstract We estimate the “incapacitation effect” on crime using variation in Italian prison population driven by eight collective pardons passed between 1962 and 1990. The prison releases are sudden (within one day), very large (up to 35 percent of the entire prison population), and happen nationwide. Exploiting this quasi-natural experiment we break the simultaneity of crime and prisoners and, in addition, use the national character of the pardons to separately identify incapacitation from changes in deterrence. The elasticity of total crime with respect to incapacitation is between −17 and −30 percent. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that Italy's prison population is below its optimal level. (JEL K42 ) http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png American Economic Journal: Economic Policy American Economic Association

The Incapacitation Effect of Incarceration: Evidence from Several Italian Collective Pardons †

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Publisher
American Economic Association
Copyright
Copyright © 2014 by the American Economic Association
Subject
Articles
ISSN
1945-7731
eISSN
1945-774x
DOI
10.1257/pol.6.1.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Abstract We estimate the “incapacitation effect” on crime using variation in Italian prison population driven by eight collective pardons passed between 1962 and 1990. The prison releases are sudden (within one day), very large (up to 35 percent of the entire prison population), and happen nationwide. Exploiting this quasi-natural experiment we break the simultaneity of crime and prisoners and, in addition, use the national character of the pardons to separately identify incapacitation from changes in deterrence. The elasticity of total crime with respect to incapacitation is between −17 and −30 percent. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that Italy's prison population is below its optimal level. (JEL K42 )

Journal

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy – American Economic Association

Published: Feb 1, 2014

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