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"Welcome to uncertainty" was the phrase Jack Schanz ( 1 ) used to introduce both laymen and professionals to the maze of petroleum energy data that must be comprehended to achieve understanding of this critical commodity. Schanz was referring to the variables as he and his colleagues with Resources for the Future saw them in those years soon after the energy-awakening oil embargo of 1973 . In some respects, we have made progress in removing uncertainty from energy data, but, in general, we simply must accept that there are many points of view and many ways for the "blindman to describe the elephant." There can be no definitive listing of all uncertainties, but for this paper we try to underscore those traits of petroleum occurrence and supply that we believe bear most heavily on the understanding of production and resource availability. Because oil and gas exist in nature under such variable conditions and because the products themselves are variable in their properties , we must first recognize classification divisions of the resource substances, so that the reader might always have a clear perception of just what we are talking about and how it relates to other components of
Annual Review of Environment and Resources – Annual Reviews
Published: Nov 1, 1990
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