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The 1970s witnessed radical changes in the structure of the world petroleum market. It was a decade marked by a major shift in the balance of power in favor of the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Coun tries (OPEC), rising oil prices, and growing fears of supply interruptions. There were two major price shocks in the 1 970s: the 1973/74 quadrupling of oil prices and the 1979 doubling of oil prices. Each price increase was followed by structural changes that proved to be far more significant than the price increase itself. Although we have observed the impact of the 1973/74 price increases, we have yet to fully grasp the implications of the 1979 changes, which promise to be more significant and far-reaching than any previous change in the world oil market. The 1973/74 price increase was followed by numerous doomsday predic tions. It was said that the world economy would plunge into a long reces sion, that developing nations would go bankrupt, and that the petrodollar surplus would destroy the world financial and monetary system. In fact, none of these predictions proved to be correct. Despite a recession in 1975, the industrial economies grew at an
Annual Review of Environment and Resources – Annual Reviews
Published: Nov 1, 1981
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