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Stochastic kriging with biased sample estimates

Stochastic kriging with biased sample estimates Stochastic kriging has been studied as an effective metamodeling technique for approximating response surfaces in the context of stochastic simulation. In a simulation experiment, an analyst typically needs to estimate relevant metamodel parameters and further do prediction; therefore, the impact of parameter estimation on the performance of the metamodel-based predictor has drawn some attention in the literature. However, how the standard stochastic kriging predictor is affected by the presence of bias in finite-sample estimates has not yet been fully investigated. In this article, we study the predictive performance and investigate optimal budget allocation rules subject to a fixed computational budget constraint. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to two-level or nested simulation, which has been recently documented in the risk management literature, with biased estimators. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation (TOMACS) Association for Computing Machinery

Stochastic kriging with biased sample estimates

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Publisher
Association for Computing Machinery
Copyright
Copyright © 2014 ACM
ISSN
1049-3301
eISSN
1558-1195
DOI
10.1145/2567893
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Stochastic kriging has been studied as an effective metamodeling technique for approximating response surfaces in the context of stochastic simulation. In a simulation experiment, an analyst typically needs to estimate relevant metamodel parameters and further do prediction; therefore, the impact of parameter estimation on the performance of the metamodel-based predictor has drawn some attention in the literature. However, how the standard stochastic kriging predictor is affected by the presence of bias in finite-sample estimates has not yet been fully investigated. In this article, we study the predictive performance and investigate optimal budget allocation rules subject to a fixed computational budget constraint. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to two-level or nested simulation, which has been recently documented in the risk management literature, with biased estimators.

Journal

ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation (TOMACS) – Association for Computing Machinery

Published: Feb 1, 2014

Keywords: Simulation output analysis

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