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Are Stay-at-Home and Face Mask Orders Effective in Slowing Down COVID-19 Transmission? – A Statistical Study of U.S. Case Counts in 2020

Are Stay-at-Home and Face Mask Orders Effective in Slowing Down COVID-19 Transmission? – A... AbstractWhether the stay-at-home order and face mask mandate are effective in slowing down the COVID-19 virus transmission is up for debate. To investigate this matter, we employ a unique angle. A two-wave logistic equation is proposed and then fitted to the cumulative case counts of all 50 states in the U.S. from the onset to early December of 2020 when vaccinating begins at large scale. The data period is confined to isolate the effects of executive orders from that of vaccination. The length of the first wave’s accelerating phase is regressed on variables describing the stay-at-home order and face mask mandate, along with control variables. A state’s lockdown duration is discovered to be negatively related to the time it takes for the virus to transit from accelerating to decelerating rates. This finding provides statistical support to the executive orders and can be useful in guiding risk management of future pandemics. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance de Gruyter

Are Stay-at-Home and Face Mask Orders Effective in Slowing Down COVID-19 Transmission? – A Statistical Study of U.S. Case Counts in 2020

Wang, Ping; Le, Huy
Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance , Volume 17 (1): 32 – Jan 1, 2023
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Publisher
de Gruyter
Copyright
© 2022 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
ISSN
2153-3792
eISSN
2153-3792
DOI
10.1515/apjri-2022-0007
Publisher site
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Abstract

AbstractWhether the stay-at-home order and face mask mandate are effective in slowing down the COVID-19 virus transmission is up for debate. To investigate this matter, we employ a unique angle. A two-wave logistic equation is proposed and then fitted to the cumulative case counts of all 50 states in the U.S. from the onset to early December of 2020 when vaccinating begins at large scale. The data period is confined to isolate the effects of executive orders from that of vaccination. The length of the first wave’s accelerating phase is regressed on variables describing the stay-at-home order and face mask mandate, along with control variables. A state’s lockdown duration is discovered to be negatively related to the time it takes for the virus to transit from accelerating to decelerating rates. This finding provides statistical support to the executive orders and can be useful in guiding risk management of future pandemics.

Journal

Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance – de Gruyter

Published: Jan 1, 2023

Keywords: COVID-19; stay-at-home; mask; logistic; pandemic management

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