Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

Forgotten effects in trade relations: a view from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

Forgotten effects in trade relations: a view from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) The purpose of this paper is to evaluate Chinese indirect trade relations in the global trade network to observe if the objectives identified by Cai (2017) in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are being fulfilled, especially with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries.Design/methodology/approachUsing data from the UNCTAD (2016) for the period 2011–2015, a normalized exports network is built. It is analyzed with the Forgotten Effects Theory and the PageRank algorithm. A Monte Carlo experiment with 10,000 replicates is performed to account for its volatility.FindingsThe paper identifies one instance in which China's peripheral countries are importing raw materials and commodities -–oil products – to produce low technological value-added products, which, in turn, are exported to China. LAC countries do not have significant indirect trade relations with China when the former is the origin country, while the latter is the destination in a trade relationship. The trade network has a clear core-periphery structure, with China belonging to its core, although being only the fourth most central node in the network.Originality/valueThis paper contributes with both a new methodology for the analysis of indirect trade relations and the results found for China under the BRI and its trade relationship with LAC economies. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Asian Education and Development Studies Emerald Publishing

Forgotten effects in trade relations: a view from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

Download PDF
11 pages

Loading next page...
 
/lp/emerald-publishing/forgotten-effects-in-trade-relations-a-view-from-the-belt-and-road-8LuhsD2wsE
Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
© Emerald Publishing Limited
ISSN
2046-3162
DOI
10.1108/aeds-12-2019-0182
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate Chinese indirect trade relations in the global trade network to observe if the objectives identified by Cai (2017) in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are being fulfilled, especially with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries.Design/methodology/approachUsing data from the UNCTAD (2016) for the period 2011–2015, a normalized exports network is built. It is analyzed with the Forgotten Effects Theory and the PageRank algorithm. A Monte Carlo experiment with 10,000 replicates is performed to account for its volatility.FindingsThe paper identifies one instance in which China's peripheral countries are importing raw materials and commodities -–oil products – to produce low technological value-added products, which, in turn, are exported to China. LAC countries do not have significant indirect trade relations with China when the former is the origin country, while the latter is the destination in a trade relationship. The trade network has a clear core-periphery structure, with China belonging to its core, although being only the fourth most central node in the network.Originality/valueThis paper contributes with both a new methodology for the analysis of indirect trade relations and the results found for China under the BRI and its trade relationship with LAC economies.

Journal

Asian Education and Development Studies – Emerald Publishing

Published: Jun 18, 2021

Keywords: PageRank; Belt and road initiative (BRI); Forgotten effects; Indirect trade relations; Trade centrality; Monte Carlo experiment; Complex networks

References

  • Features and evolution of international crude oil trade relationships: a trading-based network analysis
    An, H.; Zhong, W.; Chen, Y.; Li, H.; Gao, X.
  • The international trade network: weighted network analysis and modelling
    Bhattacharya, K.; Mukherjee, G.; Saramäki, J.; Kaski, K.; Manna, S.S.
  • Understanding China's belt and road initiative
    Cai, P.
  • The world trade network
    De Benedictis, L.; Tajoli, L.
  • Does the use of imported intermediates increase productivity? Plant-level evidence
    Kasahara, H.; Rodrigue, J.
  • Resolving China's zombies: tackling debt and raising productivity
    Lam, W.R.; Schipke, M.A.; Tan, Y.; Tan, Z.
  • China: toward a consumption-driven growth path
    Lardy, N.R.
  • The persistence of structural inequality? A network analysis of international trade, 1965–2000
    Mahutga, M.C.
  • The PageRrank citation ranking: bringing order to the web
    Page, L.; Brin, S.; Motwani, R.; Winograd, T.
  • International trade and financial integration: a weighted network analysis
    Schiavo, S.; Reyes, J.; Fagiolo, G.
  • Chinese views and commentary on periphery diplomacy
    Swaine, M.D.
  • Spatial dynamics of the communities and the role of major countries in the international rare earths trade: a complex network analysis
    Wang, X.; Ge, J.; Wei, W.; Li, H.; Wu, C.; Zhu, G.
  • Wang wen: ‘one belt, one road’ requires comprehensive systematic research
    Xinghua
  • Xi jinping delivered an important speech at the symposium on diplomatic work in the surrounding area
    Xinhua