Abstract

Rapid urban expansion has strongly impacted rural development in China’s suburbs. The increasing probability of socio-ecosystem hazards, such as the shrinking and fragmentation of ecological space, the outflow of labor force, the disintegration of traditional society, and the decline in collective economy has become a systemic risk restricting the sustainable development of rural areas in the suburbs. At present, the influence of urban expansion on rural systemic risk in the suburbs is not clear, which is not conducive to putting forward differentiated and targeted strategies for rural revitalization. Therefore, in this study, we propose the ecological, industrial, social, and livelihood elements of rural systemic risk in the suburbs and construct a multi-dimensional risk resistance analysis framework involving functionality, stability, and sustainability. Taking 93 villages in the western suburbs of Tianjin as an example, and using spatial econometric methods such as remote sensing interpretation, GIS analysis, multiple linear regression, and random forest model testing, we analyze the relationship between external transportation construction, urban employment attraction, construction of land growth, rural risk factors, and the dimension of risk resistance. Finally, the influence of urban expansion on the spatial–temporal differentiation of rural systemic risk and the risk management strategy are discussed. The results show that the difference in the urban expansion intensities is the main factor of the spatial differentiation of rural systemic risk in the suburbs. With the acceleration of the land replacement rate between urban and rural areas, the proportion of urban construction of land is increasing, leading to various degrees of change in the rural land use pattern and the ecological security pattern. Meanwhile, because of the urban employment attraction, part of the rural labor force continues to decrease, leading to the spatial differentiation of rural industrial risks and social risks aggravated. Precise risk management strategies are put forward according to the systemic risks in different types of villages. In villages with a high proportion of urban construction land and inefficient land consolidation, ecological restoration projects should be carried out. For villages severely divided by transit roads, internal spatial connections should be strengthened by constructing public transport. For villages with good accessibility, the allocation of rural non-agricultural industries and service facilities should be strengthened to mitigate the impact of urban expansion on the rural social structure. From the perspective of risk management, the research results will provide a basis for making decisions regarding rural public policymaking and spatial resource allocation in the suburbs of developing countries.