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Abstract
resources Article Influence of the COVID-19 Crisis on Steel Production in Poland Compared to the Financial Crisis of 2009 and to Boom Periods in the Market 1 , 2 , Bozena Gajdzik * and Radoslaw Wolniak * Faculty of Materials Engineering, Silesian University of Technology, 40-019 Katowice, Poland Faculty of Organisation and Management, Silesian University of Technology, 41-800 Zabrze, Poland * Correspondence: bozena.gajdzik@polsl.pl (B.G.); rwolniak@polsl.pl (R.W.) Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of the volume of steel production in Poland during the COVID-19 crisis in the first half of 2020 in comparison to the volume of steel production during the financial crisis initiated in the US during the period 2007–2008, whose effects, in the form of a large decrease in steel production, were seen in 2009 in Poland. A comparison is also made to periods of prosperity in 2004, 2007, and 2017 (when there was a good economic situation in the steel market in Poland). The selection of the time period—the first half of 2020—was based on the emergence of a new situation in the economy, which was lockdown. The aim of the analysis is to determine the impact of the COVID-19 situation on the steel market (volume of steel production) in Poland. The analysis performed could help entrepreneurs manage their companies during the COVID-19 crisis. This paper belongs to the category of research work. The statistical analysis was realized regarding steel production in Poland. Three periods were analyzed: The first half of 2020—the period termed the COVID-19 crisis; the year 2019—the year of a large decrease in steel production in Poland caused by the world financial crisis; and periods of prosperity in the steel market—the years 2004, 2007, and 2017 (periods before crises). The analysis shows that, in order to assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the functioning of enterprises or industries, it is necessary to analyze Citation: Gajdzik, B.; Wolniak, R. the situation and compare it with other situations in the past. Moreover, crisis management in the Influence of the COVID-19 Crisis on COVID-19 situation must be highly rationalized and real, and the various industrial sectors and Steel Production in Poland Compared companies forming them should adapt this process to their own situation. Results: On the basis of to the Financial Crisis of 2009 and to the statistical data, it was found that, in the short term (months), the production of steel during the Boom Periods in the Market. COVID-19 crisis was a little higher than in the financial crisis of 2009 (excluding steel production in Resources 2021, 10, 4. https://doi. June 2020), and lower than during the boom in the steel market (the comparison to the periods when org/10.3390/resources10010004 there was a boom in the Polish steel market was made to show the dynamics of decline). Received: 27 November 2020 Keywords: COVID-19 crisis; steel production; Poland Accepted: 27 December 2020 Published: 8 January 2021 Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neu- 1. Introduction tral with regard to jurisdictional clai- ms in published maps and institutio- With the spread of SARS-CoV-2 (a new virus in humans that causes respiratory illness nal affiliations. that can be spread from person to person), economic, social, commercial, communication, and tourist restrictions, among other restrictions, have been applied in many countries worldwide. On 30 January 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was recognized by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a serious global health threat. COVID-19 was identified Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. Li- in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The first COVID-19 patients from outside China censee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. were registered on 13 January 2020 in Thailand. On 24 January 2020, the first patients with This article is an open access article COVID-19 symptoms were diagnosed in France (the first European country). On 11 Febru- distributed under the terms and con- ary 2020, the World Health Organization announced an official name, COVID-19, for SARS- ditions of the Creative Commons At- CoV-2. On 4 March 2020, the first patient with symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 was registered in tribution (CC BY) license (https:// Poland. On 11 March 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic. This meant creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ that the disease had spread worldwide, and it is the first time that a coronavirus has led 4.0/). Resources 2021, 10, 4. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources10010004 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/resources Resources 2021, 10, 4 2 of 17 to a pandemic [1]. The experiences of countries such as China, Italy, the United States, and Spain have demonstrated that COVID-19 has burdened health systems, regardless of available investments and resources [2–6]. Authorities and governments have adopted several forms of physical distancing as a public health measure to contain the dissemination of the new coronavirus. One of these measures has been lockdown. The lockdown has resulted in the supply chain being broken, demand for industrial goods falling, and the decline of industrial production. Analysts have referred to the market changes during the COVID-19 period as “the shock of demand” and “the shock of supply” [7,8]. The supply shock was influenced by the closure of some factories and the breaking of the supply chain. The demand shock was influenced by the closure of shops and warehouses. In many economies of the world, GDP declined. In the EU (27) (EU 27 means all European Union countries including United Kingdom), the change in GDP (1st quarter, 2020) was 2.6% (GUS—Main Statistics Bureau in Poland/Statistics Poland, 2020). The biggest decreases in GDP were in Italy ( 5.4%), France, ( 5%), and Spain ( 4.1%). In Poland, the change in GDP was 1.7% [9]. Other economic indicators were also unfavorable. Examples include the basic indi- cators for Poland in June 2020: Sold production of industry and retail sales were lower than a year before (sold production: Seasonally unadjusted was +13.9% m/m (month over month) and +0.5% y/y (year over year), but seasonally adjusted was +9.7% m/m and 4.9% y/y); retail sales (+8.4% m/m, 1.3% y/y); average paid employment in the enterprise sector declined in relation to the first half of the previous year (in full-time equivalents it was +0.2% m/m and 3.3% y/y); the registered unemployment rate grew in annual terms (as of the end of the period it was 6.1%); manufacturer prices in industry were lower (down 0.8% y/y); and foreign trade (in PLN—abbreviation for Polish currency zloty) during the period January–May 2020 declined in comparison to 2019 (exports: 7.4% y/y; imports: 9.6% y/y). Moreover, both business climate indicators and consumer confidence indicators also declined (manufacturing: 10.5%, construction: 16.7%, retail trade: 12.2%, transportation and storage: 14.3%; consumer confidence indicators: current 13.4%, leading 13.7%) [9]. Enterprises in the majority of areas still assess the business climate unfavorably (except for information and communication entities). Entrepreneurs expect that the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the coming months will still be noticeable and serious. The majority of companies still declare the necessity for the imple- mentation of certain actions to reduce the negative effects of the pandemic. The buildup of economic disadvantage for economies and industries has been called the COVID-19 crisis. McKinsey has prepared a special report on the impact of the coronavirus on the global economy and on businesses [8]. The McKinsey report is updated on an ongoing basis. Analysts predicted two scenarios of developments: Either the virus is seasonal and the number of patients will soon fall (positive scenario), or the virus is not seasonal and there will be an increase of patients (negative scenario) [8]. In the negative scenario, there will be a deepening economic crisis and an economic recovery will only take place next year at the earliest. A large drop in demand and investment could lead to a deep recession [7,8]. During the COVID-19 crisis, the governments of many countries implemented anti- crisis programs. In Poland, the program was called an “anti-crisis shield” and was based on five pillars: Defending against job losses, support for the health service, security of the financial system, support for entrepreneurs, and public investment [9]. COVID-19 has hit many industries, in both obvious and not so obvious ways [10,11]. The steel sector, for one, is reeling from falling demand because cars are not being produced and steel consumption has therefore declined compared to 2019. The coronavirus has hit the entire world steel industry. In 2019, 437 million tons of steel were sold on the international market. This was the lowest volume since 2013 [12–16]. Global crude steel production decreased by 1.4% in the first three months of 2020 compared to the same period in the previous year. In June 2020, global crude steel production was 148.3 million tons, a 7% decrease compared to June 2019 [13]. In the period from January to September 2020, crude steel production—in the top 20 countries—was 1351 million tons ( 3%). Here are Resources 2021, 10, 4 3 of 17 examples of production declines in some countries and regions: Japan: 19%; India: 16%; EU: 18%; USA: 19%; Argentina: 30%, RPA: 41% [16]. The Eurofer forecasts that demand for steel in the EU will fall by a few percentage points in the coming years with a global surplus of more than 400 million tonnes in the steel sector [17]. In UE in the period from January to September 2020, crude steel production was 99 million tonnes ( 18% y/y) [16]. The biggest declines in raw steel production were in France—27% and Spain 26% [16]. In Poland, in the period from January to July 2020, crude steel production was 4.7 mil- lion tonnes. Total steel production (for 12 months of 2020) was 7.8 million tonnes. In January and February 2020, crude steel production was above 700 thousand tonnes each month. In the following months (March to June), steel production decreased. The increase was again recorded in July 2020, when production again amounted to more than 700 thousand tonnes. The volume of steel production in Poland for 2020 has not been formally confirmed by the world and European institutions, therefore sometimes different information, e.g., in June 2020, crude steel production was 615 thousand tonnes [18], but the Polish Steel Association informed about 638 thousand tonnes of raw steel in June 2020 (information from steel mills). Authors in this analysis used statistics that were corrected based on comparisons of information from different sources. In the first months of 2020, indicators for the steel industry in Poland were lower than in the previous year [15]. Particular countries had a decline in steel production in June, excluding three countries: Turkey, Ukraine, and China, where steel production increased in June 2020 [19]. In the period from January to September 2020, the list of countries (top 20) where steel production increased were: China +5%, Vietnam + 21%, Turkey + 3%, Iran + 11%, and Egypt + 7% [16]. In 2020, the Worldsteel Association forecasted that steel demand would contract by 6.4%, dropping to 1 654 million tonnes due to the COVID-19 crisis (the forecast was pub- lished in June 2020 by the Worldsteel Association) [19,20]. Steel demand in the developed economies was expected to decline by 17.1% in 2020. In developing countries, steel demand (excluding China—Chinese steel demand was expected to increase by 1.0% in 2020) was expected to fall by 11.6% in 2020 [19]. EU steel demand suffered a contraction of 5.6% in 2019 due to the sustained manufacturing recession [17]. The situation in the steel sector was influenced by the situation in the steel-consuming sectors. Automotive manufacturing, one of the largest consumers of steel, has been cur- tailed in an effort to slow the spread of COVID-19, while falling energy prices have led to much lower demand from sectors like oil and gas. Large automotive manufacturers such as Volvo, Toyota, VW, Nissan, and Seat have reduced production since the COVID pandemic. In April in Poland, the decrease in car production was 80% compared to April 2019 [20]. The dynamics of the decrease in production (number of cars produced) between January and October 2020 in the automotive sector were—34% (y/y). The situation in other industries (steel consumers) was also not good, e.g., production of large home appli- ances decreased by 1.2% compared to the period from January to October 2019, and the production of machinery and equipment decreased by 13% over the same period [21]. Companies implemented anti-crisis programs. To survive and minimize losses, com- panies analyze and model data to gain useful information, create anti-crisis teams, and cut expenses. The business strategies have been strongly changed from an optimistic (the best-case scenario) to a pessimistic (the worst-case) scenario. No crisis lasts forever. History shows that every economic crisis has an end. In the modern world history, the 2008 financial crisis was the worst economic disaster since the Great Depression of 1929. The causes of the crisis in 2008 were the deregulation of financial derivatives. The financial crisis of 2008–2009 influenced industries in many countries. In 2009, in Poland, steel production was less than in 2008 (down 24% and down 33% compared to 2007). Apart from the crises in the steel market, there were also periods of prosperity (steel boom). In the Polish steel industry, the largest production volumes were in 2004, 2007, and 2017 [14]. Resources 2021, 10, 4 4 of 17 On the basis of the information presented, it seems to be important to perform data analysis in order to generate knowledge about the steel production volume in the COVID- 19 crisis period and to perform comparative analyses to the period of the financial crisis and periods of prosperity. It is also a good idea to present the dynamics of production: month on month, quarter on quarter, first half-year on first half-year. The paper presents the results of such an analysis. The purpose of this paper is to compare the volume of steel production in Poland in different periods and to expand the knowledge about the situation in the Polish steel industry in the COVID-19 crisis. 2. Literature Review about Crisis Management British Standards Institution in PAS 200:2011: Crisis Management: Guidance and Good Practice (PAS: Publicly Available Specification, PAS 200:2011, is a standard designed to help organizations take practical steps to improve their ability to deal with crises) defines crisis as an inherently abnormal, complex, and unstable situation that represents a treat to meet strategic objectives, existence, or reputation of the organization [22]. The crisis affects the functioning of companies that carry out crisis management. Crisis management is the process by which an organization deals with a disruptive and unexpected event that threatens to harm the organization or its stakeholders [23]. Crisis management is important because many situations occur in the world that can affect organization functioning [24]. From an organizational point of view, organizational crisis is a high-impact, low-probability event that threatens the functioning of the organization. The crisis is characterized by ambiguity of cause, effects, resolution, and means, and also a belief that the decision to solve the problem must be made swiftly [25]. It’s especially very important in the times of COVID-19 pandemic. Especially big corporation and industries to survive crisis should be managed effectively [26]. A crisis can occur on a personal or societal level. It may be connected with a stressful or traumatic change in life or a dangerous or unstable social situation in economic, political, social, or military affairs. It can also be a large-scale environmental event which involves an impending abrupt change. Additionally, it can be named as a “testing time” or emergency event [27]. We can differentiate many types of crisis like poverty-related, unemployment, eco- nomic crisis, financial crisis, environmental crisis, and international crisis. There are different types of crisis. Most often, a classification is influenced by the cause of the crisis or its effects [28]. We described it briefly in Table 1. Those types of crisis are related between themselves. In the first decade of this century, organizations struggled with the effects of the financial crisis that started in the US in 2007. The causes of the crisis were the deregulation of financial derivatives in the US. The peak of the crisis in the world was in the years 2008–2009. The financial and banking crisis of 2008–2009 influenced industries in many countries and their industries. The next crisis began in 2019 (ten years after the previous one) and was caused by the COVID-19 virus pandemic. COVID-19 crisis is a natural disaster (according to Lerbinger ’s classification) in the category of an environmen- tal crisis. This crisis affected all the word and because of that, it’s an international crisis. Because of its a harmful effect on business, it can lead to unemployment and financial crisis. If it will last longer, it may lead to an economic crisis, and in some countries also poverty-related crisis. There are two broad perspectives on crisis management. The first perspective ac- cording to Dayton is operational, and the second is political–symbolic [37,38]. The first one—operational focuses on managing the crisis itself, the second one—political–symbolic, in- cludes a particular map of how managers and rest of the organizational team analyze crises [30]. Resources 2021, 10, 4 5 of 17 Table 1. Main types of crisis—fundamental categories of crises. Type of Crisis Characteristic This type of crisis includes malnutrition—the lack of sufficient nutrients which are necessary to maintain Poverty-related health. Is typically associated with poverty in economically undeveloped countries. The condition of willing workers lacking a job. It leads to difficulties with meeting financial obligations Unemployment such as food purchasing to feed family, pay one’s bills, failure to pay mortgages, etc. The term economic crisis is related to the sharp transition into recession. The crisis period encourages Economic crisis class conflict and/or societal changes. Includes events such as market crushes, strikes, and shortages of labor opportunities. Problems of banking systems like: Banking crisis, speculative bubbles and crashes, or international Financial crisis financial crisis. Environmental disaster—this type of crisis is a disaster due to human activity. Natural disaster—is the consequence of existing natural hazard (for example, volcanic eruption, Environmental crisis landslide, or earthquake) which changes its phase from potential to active. The resulting loss depends on the capacity of the population to resist or support the disaster and their resilience. International crisis Crisis when the situation has far-reaching consequences affecting a whole or big part of the world. The crisis is in situation of lack of important information or some organizational records which are public Informational or confidential. This type of crisis is connected with equipment problems, loss of supplier, or also big disruption of a key Physical operating plant. The crisis occurs, for example, when we affect the loss of a key executive member of an organization, Human resources workplace violence, or vandalism. Reputational The term is related to rumors or gossips which can negatively affect the reputation of the organization. Source: On basis: [28–36]. To deal with crisis management, we should use an integrated, holistic approach. We should take into consideration that not all crises are preventable [33]. However, we should try to manage them to restrain the number of negative effects they can bring. To increase crisis resistance of the company, we should implement a procedure consisting of the following steeps [39]: Risk assessment, risk management, crisis preparedness assessment, emergency and crisis response, reputation management, training, testing, monitoring and evaluation. To manage the crisis, we should take into consideration the main factors affecting it. The most important factors are [40]: Psychological, which are connected with the important element for the individual in charge of a crisis management process, the good knowledge about the whole environment surrounding the organization, the knowledge about the nature of local laws and legislations, good communication and a media plan to connect with the public in a time of crisis, and involving the public in the crisis. Three elements are common to all crises: A threat to the organization, the element of surprise, and a short decision time [41]. The classical model of crisis management developed by Gonzales-Herrera and Pratt [42] consists of the four following stages: Issues management, planning-prevention, the crisis, and the post-crisis, or based on Bundy Resources 2021, 10, 4 6 of 17 classification, only three stages: Pre-crisis prevention, crisis management, and post-crisis outcomes [23]. Sometimes the crisis surprises organizations and they cannot realize the first stage (pre-crisis prevention). The planning for a crisis is very troublesome because it is a low-probability event. This type of event is hard to plan for earlier, and the organization is unprepared for it. In times when all is going well, organizations hardly ever want to plan for something bad [43,44]. Because the crisis has a high-damage impact, it has a devastating effect on the organization. The organization can be badly wounded or even killed by the crisis. The crisis has the ambiguity of cause, which means that the origins and effects of the crisis may not be known initially [33]. Additionally, the resolving of a crisis is not easy and often debatable. Several viable options can be available for crisis management to mitigate it, and it’s not easy to choose the proper one. Additionally, a certain aspect of a crisis may require a swift decision to manage. It’s a problem to act decisively during the crisis [44]. The crisis can lead to an immense amount of negative consequences for the business. It’s not easy to analyze risks and to make an appropriate decision regarding them, but it’s necessary to generate the required level of security. Accidents and crisis occur because those who manage very complex systems are not sufficiently able to anticipate the problems generated by those systems [45]. Events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunami, winter storms, power outages, and now viruses have underscored organizations’ vulnerability to natural disasters. Additionally, there can be many types of disastrous incidents affecting organizations which are man-made, like: Cyber-attacks, terroristic activities, failing infrastructure, financial crises, energy shortages, and crime [46,47]. Before a crisis occurs, it can send many early warning signals, which announce the possibility that a crisis will take place [48]. However, it’s not easy to recognize those subtitle signals. We can distinguish the following limitation of the common crisis warnings [41]: To subtle or too weak signals, the sources of crisis signals are not viewed as credible, the signals are imbedded in routine messages, or the signal can’t reach the appropriate persons. Many of these sources we could observe in the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic as well. The signals were firstly weak and not all oriented around the situation. The signals were underestimated, and the whole situation went out of control. In Table 2, we de- scribed reasons why an organization does not engage in proper crisis management with conceptions to the COVID-19 pandemic. Table 2. Reasons why organizations do not engage in proper crisis management. Reason Definition COVID-19 Pandemic Many people first tried to deny the The organization tries to deny that it may be COVID-19 pandemic as a whole. Next, Denial vulnerable to threats of imminent crisis and they underestimated the possibility of widespread of decide there is no need to take measures. it. The organization recognizes that a crisis can When the authorities and organizations’ realized that affect it, but think that the impact will be too the COVID-19 pandemic was real, they tried to deny Disavowal low to be taken into consideration. the possible effects—mortality, and the potential The organization diminishes the magnitude business effects of a pandemic. They thought that it and importance of the crisis. could have a small and short-lasting effect. In the big international crisis, all organizations were The organization tries to presume that is too affected. Especially, the closing of many international Grandiosity powerful and big to be affected by the crisis. borders had a very negative effect on supply chain management in a business environment. The organization thinks that the crisis does not The international range of the COVID-19 pandemic Idealization happen to good organizations, and because of affected almost all organizations in the world. that ignores all existing signals of a crisis. Resources 2021, 10, 4 7 of 17 Table 2. Cont. Reason Definition COVID-19 Pandemic For many years, scientists have warned about the possibility of pandemic occurrence. We have known a The organization minimizes the probability of previous disaster, for example, the Spanish flu Intellectualization occurrence of the crisis. pandemic in 1918. However, many thought that today, in a highly developed world, such a situation is impossible. The organization believes that even if a crisis The global dimension of the pandemic affected all Compartmentalization occurs and affects the company, it will affect branches of companies and had a very big impact on only small part of it. business. Source: Author ’s own work based on: [34,49,50]. In the steel industry, crisis management methods were used many times when bigger and smaller crises occurred. In a crisis situation in this industry, a modification of a total change of action strategy is needed. The changes can be in organizational structure, investment, production, and improvement of efficiency by controlling cost and stringing the discipline of work [24]. Additionally, in the COVID-19 pandemic situation, the changes are needed. In this publication, we showed the influence of the steel industry situation. This effect will probably lead to many changes in the industry organization, especially if the pandemic situation will last longer [51]. The COVID-19 crisis will impact many areas of work. In Table 3, we described the main impacts of the disease from a management point of view. Table 3. COVID-19—changes for workers. COVID 19 Pandemic Impact Characteristic Many types of industries, especially travel, hospitality, entertainment, and sports, were shut Unemployment and layoffs down by the current pandemic. Many people in the whole world are unemployed, which affects their state of life and leads to anxiety, depression, and physical ailments. It is the risk that people continuing to work in COVID-19 are going to work ill and can Presenteeism infect other people. Scholars expect that economic inequality can increase in the time of COVID 19 pandemic. Economic inequality Such problems were known in times of past crises, for example, the financial crisis in 2008. Problems connected with a low amount of social contact can negatively influence on social Social distancing and loneliness and mental physical health. Loneliness is an emotion which is psychologically painful and results from subjective feelings that their social needs are not well met. The uncertainty affected by pandemic can lead to an increase in those problems between Stress and burnout various industries. Other problems with workforce disengagement were associated with alcohol misuse due to Addiction distancing from workplace-based supervisors and peers. The COVID-19 pandemic can bring similar effects. Source: On basis: [52–63]. 3. Data and Methods Data analysis is the process of data processing to obtain useful information and conclusions on its basis. Depending on the type of data and the problems posed, differ- ent statistical methods can be used [64–66]. Data analysis—the volume of steel production in Poland—consisted of checking, organizing, transforming, and reporting data to obtain useful information and develop conclusions. The analysis was carried out according to these steps: Defining the analysis requirements, data collection, Resources 2021, 10, 4 8 of 17 data processing, proper data analysis, and reporting of results. In research, the authors used comparative analysis. Comparative research methods are used extensively in consumption and management. Such analyses are carried out: Management comparative research, marketing comparative research, and cross-cultural and cross-discipline comparative research. The condition for its application is the compa- rability of the subject [67]. Through different forms of comparison, the reader can better understand the subject of the research. A comparative analysis is a good introduction to further research because it organizes the subject of research. The authors applied a period of comparison. The studies were carried out using a comparative analysis of the production volume of steel produced in Poland for three periods: (1) COVID-19 (the first half-year of 2020), (2) the financial crisis (the first half-year of 2009), and (3) the boom in the steel market (the first half-years of 2004, 2007, and 2017). The analysis periods were half-yearly in each period. The first argument for choosing the half-yearly period 2020: The specific (difficult) situation related to COVID-19 begins in Poland in March and increases until June because there was the lockdown in the Polish economy in that period. The second argument: The period from January to June 2020 was Resources 2021, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 19 called “the first wave of COVID-19”, the next one appears at the end of the year as the second phase of the increase in the number of COVID patients. Moreover, the economic restrictions introduced in Poland (and other countries) between March and June of 2020 sur- surprised producers, so it is worth checking for changes in steel production in Poland. prised producers, so it is worth checking for changes in steel production in Poland. Besides, Besides, the decrease in crude steel production in Poland between January and June 2020, the decrease in crude steel production in Poland between January and June 2020, called the called the Covid-19 crisis, must be compared with the financial crisis that was on the Covid-19 crisis, must be compared with the financial crisis that was on the Polish steel Polish steel market in 2009 (the second period of analysis), to develop knowledge about market in 2009 (the second period of analysis), to develop knowledge about crises in the crises in the market, although the conditions of this crisis are different. For the third pe- market, although the conditions of this crisis are different. For the third period, the argu- riod, the argument is as follows: The comparison to the boom periods in the market shows ment is as follows: The comparison to the boom periods in the market shows the dynamics the dynamics of change in crude steel production in Poland. of change in crude steel production in Poland. Quantitative data—the volume of crude steel production in Poland—have been com- Quantitative data—the volume of crude steel production in Poland—have been com- piled every month. For 2020, due to the lack of data, a time limit has been adopted. In piled every month. For 2020, due to the lack of data, a time limit has been adopted. In 2020, 2020, data about steel production were from January to June. The analysis was based on data about steel production were from January to June. The analysis was based on data data obtained from the Polish Steel Association in Katowice. The analysis was performed obtained from the Polish Steel Association in Katowice. The analysis was performed in Au- in August 2020. Data collected in spreadsheets has been processed using Excel tools. The gust 2020. Data collected in spreadsheets has been processed using Excel tools. The results results of the analysis are presented in tables and presented in figures. The statistics about of the analysis are presented in tables and presented in figures. The statistics about crude crude steel production in Poland for the period from August to December 2020 are rec- steel production in Poland for the period from August to December 2020 are recorded in orded in Table 4. These figures should be treated, especially for the last months of 2020, Table 4. These figures should be treated, especially for the last months of 2020, as forecasts as forecasts because the formal confirmation of steel production figures for the last quarter because the formal confirmation of steel production figures for the last quarter of 2020 will of 2020 will be in the first months of 2021. be in the first months of 2021. Table 4. Statistics on crude steel production in Poland [thousand tonnes]. Table 4. Statistics on crude steel production in Poland [thousand tonnes]. January February March April May June July August September Septem- October Novem- November De- Decemebr Years Years January February March April May June July August October ber ber cemebr 880 827 887 926 933 914 947 909 877 927 796 769 2004 880 827 887 926 933 914 947 909 877 927 796 769 907 860 948 906 957 967 872 847 859 859 829 819 2007 907 860 948 906 957 967 872 847 859 859 829 819 492 483 473 479 569 677 697 686 669 747 607 551 2009 492 483 473 479 569 677 697 686 669 747 607 551 852 796 855 891 881 853 912 846 865 871 821 888 2017 852 796 855 891 881 853 912 846 865 871 821 888 720 720 658 671 637 638 700 505 599 692 660 F 630F 2020 720 720 658 671 637 638 700 505 599 692 660 F 630F Description: F—forecast. Description: F—forecast. —Data —Data u usedsfor ed fo analysis r analy only sis on from lyJanuary from Jan tou June ary to Ju (colour). ne (colour). Two forms of analysis were used: Two forms of analysis were used: • Static data analysis, Static data analysis, • dynamic data analysis. dynamic data analysis. Formula for dynamics [68]: ( − ) = × 100% (1) where: DP—dynamics of steel production; Pt—crude steel production in the current period; Pt−1—steel production in the previous period. The whole structure of analysis was presented in Figure 1. 9 Resources 2021, 10, 4 9 of 17 Formula for dynamics [68]: (P P ) t t 1 D = 100% (1) t 1 where: D —dynamics of steel production; P —crude steel production in the current period; Resources 2021, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 19 P —steel production in the previous period. t 1 The whole structure of analysis was presented in Figure 1. Figure 1. The structure of analysis presented in the paper. Description: y-o-y means: year over Figure 1. The structure of analysis presented in the paper. Description: y-o-y means: year over year, year, h-o-h means half year over half year, q-o-q means quarter over quarter, m-o-m means month h-o-h means half year over half year, q-o-q means quarter over quarter, m-o-m means month over over month month. 4. Research of Analysis: The Volume of Steel Production in Poland Periods 4. Research of Analysis: The Volume of Steel Production in Poland Periods The market situation in the country and the world affects the volume of crude steel The market situation in the country and the world affects the volume of crude steel production in Poland. In the years 2000–2020, there were both increases and decreases production in Poland. In the years 2000–2020, there were both increases and decreases in in the volume of steel production in Poland (Figure 2). During this period, the largest the volume of steel production in Poland (Figure 2). During this period, the largest de- decrease was in 2009, and the largest increase in 2007. The situation on the steel market crease was in 2009, and the largest increase in 2007. The situation on the steel market in in Poland was also good in 2004 and 2017. In 2009, steel production was 7.129 million Poland was also good in 2004 and 2017. In 2009, steel production was 7.129 million tonnes. tonnes. In the same decade, in 2004, the steel production was 10.593 million tonnes, and in In the same decade, in 2004, the steel production was 10.593 million tonnes, and in 2007, 2007, the steel production was 10.632 million tonnes, the highest production volumes in the steel production was 10.632 million tonnes, the highest production volumes in Poland Poland after the restructuring of the smelters and their privatization. The next high volume after the restructuring of the smelters and their privatization. The next high volume of of crude steel production in Poland was only 10 years later. In 2017, steel production in crude steel production in Poland was only 10 years later. In 2017, steel production in Po- Poland was 10.33 million tonnes [69]. In 2020 (F—forecast), steel production dropped by land was 10.33 million tonnes [69]. In 2020 (F—forecast), steel production dropped by more than 1 million tonnes as compared to 2019. more than 1 million tonnes as compared to 2019. In the period from January to June 2020, 4 million tonnes of crude steel were produced in Poland, a decrease of 16% as compared to the first half of 2019. The average utilization of the production capacity was by a few percentage points lower than in the previous year and amounted to 74%. The lowest steel production was recorded in March 2020 compared to March 2019; the decrease was 28%. In March 2019, 912 thousand tonnes of crude steel were produced in Poland, and in March 2020, 658 thousand tonnes. March was the first month of introducing radical restrictions in Poland due to the appearance of patient zero. Data regarding the steel production in Poland (volume) in the period from January to June Figure 2. Crude steel production in Poland from 2000 to 2020. Source: Own study based on data from Polish Steel Association [69]. Resources 2021, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 19 Figure 1. The structure of analysis presented in the paper. Description: y-o-y means: year over year, h-o-h means half year over half year, q-o-q means quarter over quarter, m-o-m means month over month 4. Research of Analysis: The Volume of Steel Production in Poland Periods The market situation in the country and the world affects the volume of crude steel production in Poland. In the years 2000–2020, there were both increases and decreases in the volume of steel production in Poland (Figure 2). During this period, the largest de- crease was in 2009, and the largest increase in 2007. The situation on the steel market in Poland was also good in 2004 and 2017. In 2009, steel production was 7.129 million tonnes. In the same decade, in 2004, the steel production was 10.593 million tonnes, and in 2007, Resources 2021, 10, 4 10 of 17 the steel production was 10.632 million tonnes, the highest production volumes in Poland after the restructuring of the smelters and their privatization. The next high volume of crude steel production in Poland was only 10 years later. In 2017, steel production in Po- 2020 with its dynamics (Formula (1)) compared to the same period in 2019 are presented land was 10.33 million tonnes [69]. In 2020 (F—forecast), steel production dropped by in Figures 2 and 3. more than 1 million tonnes as compared to 2019. Resources 2021, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 19 In the period from January to June 2020, 4 million tonnes of crude steel were pro- duced in Poland, a decrease of 16% as compared to the first half of 2019. The average utilization of the production capacity was by a few percentage points lower than in the previous year and amounted to 74%. The lowest steel production was recorded in March 2020 compared to March 2019; the decrease was 28%. In March 2019, 912 thousand tonnes of crude steel were produced in Poland, and in March 2020, 658 thousand tonnes. March was the first month of introducing radical restrictions in Poland due to the appearance of patient zero. Data regarding the steel production in Poland (volume) in the period from Figure 2. Crude steel production in Poland from 2000 to 2020. Source: Own study based on data Figure 2. Crude steel production in Poland from 2000 to 2020. Source: Own study based on data January to June 2020 with its dynamics (Formula (1)) compared to the same period in 2019 from Polish Steel Association [69]. from Polish Steel Association [69]. are presented in Figures 2 and 3. Figure 3. Crude steel production and its dynamics in the first half of 2020 and the first half of 2019. Figure 3. Crude steel production and its dynamics in the first half of 2020 and the first half of 2019. Source: Own study based on data from Polish Steel Association [69]. Source: Own study based on data from Polish Steel Association [69]. Figure 4 shows the monthly volume of steel production in the first half of 2020 as Figure 4 shows the monthly volume of steel production in the first half of 2020 as compared to the same period of 2009 (the financial crisis from the US in the world) and its compared to the same period of 2009 (the financial crisis from the US in the world) and dynamics. Based on the analysis, it was established that the monthly volume of steel pro- its dynamics. Based on the analysis, it was established that the monthly volume of steel duction in Poland in the period from January to June 2020 was higher than in the same production in Poland in the period from January to June 2020 was higher than in the same period of 2009. Only in June 2020, the dynamics of steel production were falling (−5.76%). period of 2009. Only in June 2020, the dynamics of steel production were falling ( 5.76%). The average steel production in the period was 674 thousand tonnes (per month). In 2009, The average steel production in the period was 674 thousand tonnes (per month). In 2009, the average steel production was 529 thousand tonnes, so in the COVID-19 crisis, steel the average steel production was 529 thousand tonnes, so in the COVID-19 crisis, steel mills mills produced more than in the financial crisis. Data regarding the production volume of produced more than in the financial crisis. Data regarding the production volume of crude crude steel in Poland in the first half of 2020 as compared to the first half of 2009 are pre- steel in Poland in the first half of 2020 as compared to the first half of 2009 are presented sented in Table 5. in Table 5. Resources 2021, 10, 4 11 of 17 Resources 2021, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 19 Figure 4. Crude steel production and its dynamics in the first half of 2020 and in the first half of Figure 4. Crude steel production and its dynamics in the first half of 2020 and in the first half of 2009. 2009. Source: Own study based on data from Polish Steel Association [69]. Source: Own study based on data from Polish Steel Association [69]. Table 5. Manufacturing of crude steel in Poland in the first half of 2020 compared to the first half of 2009. January February March April May June Table 5. Manufacturing of crude steel in Poland in the first half of 2020 compared to the first half of 2009. 2020 Thousand 720 720 658 671 637 638 tonnes 46.34% 49.07% 39.11% 40.08% 11.95% −5.76% 2009 492 483 473 479 569 677 January February March April May June m-o-m The first quarter The second quarter 2020 720 720 658 671 637 638 Thousand tonnes 2020 Thousand 2098 1946 39.11% 11.95% 46.34% 49.07% 40.08% 5.76% m-o-m tonnes 44.89% 12.81% 2009 492 483 473 479 569 677 2009 1448 1725 q-o-q The first quarter The second quarter The first half-year 2020 Thousand 4044 2020 2098 1946 Thousand tonnes tonnes 27.45% 44.89% 12.81% 2009 3173 q-o-q h-o-h 2009 1448 1725 Note: m-o-m—month-on-month; q-o-q—quarter-on-quarter, h-o-h—first half-year-on-first half-year. Source: Own study The first half-year based on data from Polish Steel Association [69]. 2020 4044 Thousand tonnes On the other hand, the comparison of steel production volume in Poland in the 27.45% h-o-h COVID-19 period to steel production in the period of increasing steel demand is unfavor- 2009 3173 able. The dynamics of change are declining. Data regarding this are presented in Table 6, Note: m-o-m—month-on-month; q-o-q—quarter-on-quarter, h-o-h—first half-year-on-first half-year. Source: Own study based on data and trends are presented in Figure 5. The trend for the crude steel production in the from Polish Steel Association [69]. COVID 19 crisis is strongly declining in comparison to the periods with the boom in the steel market. On the other hand, the comparison of steel production volume in Poland in the COVID- 19 period to steel production in the period of increasing steel demand is unfavorable. The dynamics of change are declining. Data regarding this are presented in Table 6, and trends are presented in Figure 5. The trend for the crude steel production in the COVID 19 crisis is strongly declining in comparison to the periods with the boom in the Resources 2021, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 19 steel market. Figure 5. Steel production and its trends in the first half of 2020 and in the first half of 2004, 2007, Figure 5. Steel production and its trends in the first half of 2020 and in the first half of 2004, 2007, and 2017. Source: Own study based on data from Polish Steel Association [69]. and 2017. Source: Own study based on data from Polish Steel Association [69]. Based on the data collected in Table 6, it was found that the largest steel production was in the first half of 2007 (5.545 million tonnes). In June 2007, the crude steel production was 967 thousand tonnes, the most of all the data collected monthly, so the highest de- crease in monthly steel production was in June 2020 as compared to June 2007 (−34.02%). 5. Discussion In our paper, we wanted to analyze the steel production in Poland in times of COVID-19 crisis and compare it to the financial crisis from 2008–2009. The COVID-19 cri- sis is an informational type of crisis and environmental type of crisis. In any organization, this crisis has affected many workers and organizations [26–34]. Based on our analysis, we found that the COVID-19 crisis has affected the steel in- dustry in Poland. We observe the decrease in steel production from the point the crisis started in Poland (March 2020). Additionally, other publications about the industry are according to our results. The world report about manufacturing production noted a big decrease in production in the first part of 2020 [19,20,70]. There is also a similar situation in the Asian Agriculture industry. In southeast Asian countries, the volume of production decreased in all countries from this region [71]. Additionally, other authors [72,73] think the current COVID-19 crisis has a big negative impact on the economy and production volume in many industries. We think that the Polish example could be interesting for other countries not only producing steel, but also other industrial goods. The crises that we compared in our paper were international crises, and we think the analysis of partic- ular industrial goods in a particular country can give a good database for meta-analysis. Our paper is a case study, but it can give useful information for other countries producing steel, and can in the future be part of the bigger meta-analysis. When we analyze the situation in Polish steel production in other non-crisis-affected years, we can observe that there are no differences between particular months bigger than 5%. The volume of production is rather stable. But in a situation of crisis, it tends to de- crease (Figure 6). Resources 2021, 10, 4 12 of 17 Table 6. Manufacturing of steel in Poland in the first half of 2020 compared to the first half of 2004, 2007, and 2017. Months January February March April May June Thousand tonnes 2020 720 720 658 671 637 638 2004 880 827 887 926 933 914 2007 907 860 948 906 957 967 2017 852 796 855 891 881 853 2020/2004 18.18% 12.94% 25.82% 27.54% 31.73% 30.20% m-o-m 2020/2007 20.62% 16.28% 30.59% 25.94% 33.44% 34.02% m-o-m 2020/2017 15.49% 9.55% 23.04% 24.69% 27.70% 25.21% m-o-m Quarters The first quarter The second quarter Thousand tonnes 2020 2098 1946 2004 2594 2773 2007 2715 2830 2017 2503 2625 2020/2004 19.12% 29.82% q-o-q 2020/2007 22.73% 31.24% q-o-q 2020/2017 16.18% 25.87% q-o-q First half of the year Thousand tonnes Dynamics h-o-h 2020 2004 2007 2017 2020/2004 2020/2007 2020/2017 4044 5367 5545 5128 24.65% 27.07% 21.34% Source: Own study based on data from Polish Steel Association [69]. Based on the data collected in Table 6, it was found that the largest steel production was in the first half of 2007 (5.545 million tonnes). In June 2007, the crude steel production was 967 thousand tonnes, the most of all the data collected monthly, so the highest decrease in monthly steel production was in June 2020 as compared to June 2007 ( 34.02%). 5. Discussion In our paper, we wanted to analyze the steel production in Poland in times of COVID- 19 crisis and compare it to the financial crisis from 2008–2009. The COVID-19 crisis is an informational type of crisis and environmental type of crisis. In any organization, this crisis has affected many workers and organizations [26–34]. Based on our analysis, we found that the COVID-19 crisis has affected the steel industry in Poland. We observe the decrease in steel production from the point the crisis started in Poland (March 2020). Additionally, other publications about the industry are according to our results. The world report about manufacturing production noted a big decrease in production in the first part of 2020 [19,20,70]. There is also a similar situation in Resources 2021, 10, 4 13 of 17 the Asian Agriculture industry. In southeast Asian countries, the volume of production decreased in all countries from this region [71]. Additionally, other authors [72,73] think the current COVID-19 crisis has a big negative impact on the economy and production volume in many industries. We think that the Polish example could be interesting for other countries not only producing steel, but also other industrial goods. The crises that we compared in our paper were international crises, and we think the analysis of particular industrial goods in a particular country can give a good database for meta- analysis. Our paper is a case study, but it can give useful information for other countries producing steel, and can in the future be part of the bigger meta-analysis. When we analyze the situation in Polish steel production in other non-crisis-affected years, we can observe that there are no differences between particular months bigger than Resources 2021, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5%. The volume of production is rather stable. But in a situation of crisis, it tends 15 of to 19 decrease (Figure 6). Figure 6. Steel production in years: 2020, 2004, 2007, 2017, and 2009. Source: Own study based on Figure 6. Steel production in years: 2020, 2004, 2007, 2017, and 2009. Source: Own study based on data from Table 4 [69]. data from Table 4 [69]. The decrease in the COVID-19 crisis comparing to the boom period is more than 20%. The decrease in the COVID-19 crisis comparing to the boom period is more than 20%. The volume of production from February to June 2020 decreased by about 12% due to a The volume of production from February to June 2020 decreased by about 12% due to a crisis. This crisis affected the steel industry in Poland almost as hard as the financial crisis crisis. This crisis affected the steel industry in Poland almost as hard as the financial crisis in in 2008–2009. In 2008–2009, we also observed a big decrease in steel production, even 2008–2009. In 2008–2009, we also observed a big decrease in steel production, even harder harder than now (decrease to 473 thousand tonnes per month compared to 658 thousand than now (decrease to 473 thousand tonnes per month compared to 658 thousand tonnes tonnes per month in COVID-19 crisis). However, this year the decrease is the second big- per month in COVID-19 crisis). However, this year the decrease is the second biggest in the gest in the years 2000–2020. This situation is very bad from the industry point of view, years 2000–2020. This situation is very bad from the industry point of view, especially now especially now that we know that the crisis is lasting, and if will last for a year or more, it that we know that the crisis is lasting, and if will last for a year or more, it could affect the could affect the steel industry very hard. Our results are according to OECD data for the steel industry very hard. Our results are according to OECD data for the global steel market. global steel market. In the global market, we could also observe the decrease in steel pro- In the global market, we could also observe the decrease in steel production due to the COVID- duction due to the COVID-19 crisis [16]. We think it is not possible that the effects are 19 crisis [16]. We think it is not possible that the effects are incidental. Always when we can incidental. Always when we can observe the big crisis in the world market (crisis can have observe the big crisis in the world market (crisis can have financial or other reasons), there is afin bianci g deal cr or eas o e t iher re n steelasons produ ),c t th ioere n. T is h a er b e iw g adecr s noe t ase a sim ini steel prod lar crisis inuc thtion. There e market in w tha es not a years 2simi 000–la 20 r cr 20 is no is t i cn o t nh ne e m ctea drket with in s t uh ch e yea a sitr u sa 2 ti 0 o 0 n 0–2 . Th 020 e a not naly connected wi zed industry (P th o such lish sta si eel tuati prodo un. The ction) canaly an usz eed difind fereu nstry t sce(Po narlish ios i steel prod n the markuc et,tion) c whenatn use here i different s a boom isce n tn hario e ste s in el m the market, arket—the best-case scenario of steel production with production above 9 million tonnes until 10 million when there is a boom in the steel market—the best-case scenario of steel production with to producti nnes per on yeabove 9 ar, when m th ill er ie on tonnes is the crisunti is—tl 10 he w m oirll sti- o cn tonnes per yea ase scenario—therp , when there is the cri roduction falls below- 9 million tonnes (and even below 8 million tonnes) [74,75]. The Polish Steel Association sis—the worst-case scenario—the production falls below 9 million tonnes (and even below predictions were on the level of 7.8 million tonnes of produced steel for 12 months of the 8 million tonnes) [74,75]. The Polish Steel Association predictions were on the level of 7.8 2020 year [21]. In an analysis of steel production, we can use also different comparative million tonnes of produced steel for 12 months of the 2020 year [21]. In an analysis of steel production, we can use also different comparative factors for example foreign trade (ex- ports and imports of steel products, apparent and real steel use) [76,77]. Because effects of the financial crisis and COVID-19 crisis are similar from the Polish steel industry point of view, we could think that the basis of the problem is the decrease of demand due to a crisis [78]. To deal with the problem, organizations should use proper crisis management methods to particular tasks [50,79], but it’s not sufficient. The organi- zations should also wait for an increase in demand to deal with the problem. In the finan- cial crisis in 2009, this increase of demand was rather bid and fast, but if it would be so in COVID crisis, for now, we can’t say properly. However, the whole situation can affect workers because they should implement a new way of work based more on teleworking and distancing [80]. The strongly dynamic environment in recent years forces managers to think in a new way, that we should analyze the risk of the development of the company in the management process [81]. The COVID-19 crisis has appeared in the information society. Digitation helps us to live better in the COVID-19 situation [82], but lockdown have many bad effects on our Resources 2021, 10, 4 14 of 17 factors for example foreign trade (exports and imports of steel products, apparent and real steel use) [76,77]. Because effects of the financial crisis and COVID-19 crisis are similar from the Polish steel industry point of view, we could think that the basis of the problem is the decrease of demand due to a crisis [78]. To deal with the problem, organizations should use proper crisis management methods to particular tasks [50,79], but it’s not sufficient. The orga- nizations should also wait for an increase in demand to deal with the problem. In the financial crisis in 2009, this increase of demand was rather bid and fast, but if it would be so in COVID crisis, for now, we can’t say properly. However, the whole situation can affect workers because they should implement a new way of work based more on teleworking and distancing [80]. The strongly dynamic environment in recent years forces managers to think in a new way, that we should analyze the risk of the development of the company in the management process [81]. The COVID-19 crisis has appeared in the information society. Digitation helps us to live better in the COVID-19 situation [82], but lockdown have many bad effects on our lives and economies [80]. The COVID-19 crisis takes place in times of the popularization of the Industry 4.0 concept. This can be the reason that there is a dissonance in our lives, and the additional question can be formed thus far to societies and economies [83]. The COVID- 19 situation is a global problem for all industries and it must be analyzed in the case of many topics: Economies, societies, enterprises. The more different analyses we can do, the better we can understand the impact of the COVID-19 crisis. For the whole world, this is a new situation, and we have to face it. 6. Conclusions Based on the analysis, conclusions were drawn: In the first half of 2020, the steel production in Poland was 4.044 million tonnes, the steel production in the first half of 2020 decreased, as compared to the same period of previous year, the highest decrease was in June 2020 compared to June 2007 ( 34.02%), the steel production in the COVID-19 crisis as compared to the boom periods is heavily declining (decrease more than 20% compared to the periods of steel boom), the production of steel in the COVID-19 crisis (month) is a little higher than in the financial crisis of 2009 (excluding steel production in June 2020), the production capacity of the steel industry in Poland in the COVID-19 crisis is unused, Polish steel mills can produce about one million tonnes per month, and the highest level of steel production was 967 thousand tonnes (June 2007), the average monthly production in the period from January to June 2020 was 674 thou- sand tonnes, and in the financial crisis of 2009 was 529 thousand tonnes (increase 27.45%), and only the financial crisis has had harder effects on steel production industry in Poland, but the COVID-19 crisis is not finished, and if it will last longer, it could be even worse. The analysis shows that to assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the functioning of enterprises or industries, it is necessary to analyze the situation and compare it with other situations that were in the past. Historical data is useful for crisis management. Crisis management in the COVID-19 situation must be highly rationalized and real, and the various industrial sectors and companies forming them should adapt this process to their situation. Author Contributions: Conceptualization, B.G. and R.W.; methodology, B.G. and R.W.; software, B.G. and R.W.; validation, B.G. and R.W.; formal analysis for steel industry, B.G.; investigation, B.G. and R.W.; resources, R.W. (mainly) and B.G.; data curation, B.G.; writing—original draft preparation, B.G. and R.W.; writing—review and editing, R.W.; and B.G., visualization, B.G. and R.W.; supervision, B.G. and R.W.; project administration, B.G. and R.W. funding acquisition, B.G. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. Resources 2021, 10, 4 15 of 17 Funding: This research was funded by BK-11/990/BK_20/0074. Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable. Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable. Data Availability Statement: Data is contained within the article. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript; or in the decision to publish the results. References 1. World Health Organization. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report–168; World Health Organization: Geneva, Switzerland, 2020; [cited 2020 6 July 2020]; Available online: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation- reports/20200706-covid-19-sitrep-168.pdf?sfvrsn=7fed5c0b_2 (accessed on 25 November 2020). 2. Lee, D.; Heo, K.; Seo, Y. 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Published: Jan 8, 2021