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- Publisher
- Oxford University Press
- Copyright
- © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com
- ISSN
- 2045-9920
- eISSN
- 2045-9939
- DOI
- 10.1093/rapstu/raw004
- Publisher site
- See Article on Publisher Site
Abstract
AbstractAsset pricing models predict a strong connection between the real risk-freeinterest rate and the macroeconomy, but prior research finds little empiricalsupport for the connection when examining expected growth. This paper documentsa robust relation between the interest rate and macroeconomic uncertainty (i.e.,conditional variance). Consistent with precautionary savings, high uncertaintyis associated with a low interest rate using numerous data sources, timeperiods, and measures. A relation between habit and the interest rate disappearsafter including uncertainty, and the relation is stronger using long-rununcertainty. The results imply that analyses of the interest rate withoutuncertainty are seriously incomplete.Received September 17, 2014; accepted January 8, 2016 by Editor JeffreyPontiff.
Journal
The Review of Asset Pricing Studies – Oxford University Press
Published: Dec 1, 2016