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Overreporting Voting: Why It Happens and Why It Matters*

Overreporting Voting: Why It Happens and Why It Matters* AbstractThe key to understanding why people overreport is that those who are under the most pressure to vote are the ones most likely to misrepresent their behavior when they fail to do so. Among all nonvoters, the most likely to overreport are the more educated, partisan, and religious, and those who have been contacted and asked to vote for a candidate. The greater the concentration of African-American and Latino nonvoters in a district, the greater the probability of overreporting in those districts, both among those in the relevant minority group and among white Anglos. White nonvoters are more likely to overreport in the Deep South than elsewhere. Overreporting matters: using reported votes in place of validated votes substantially distorts standard multivariate explanations of voting, increasing the apparent importance of independent variables that are related in the same direction to both overreporting and voting and sharply decreasing the apparent importance of independent variables related in opposing directions to those two variables. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Public Opinion Quarterly Oxford University Press

Overreporting Voting: Why It Happens and Why It Matters*

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References (37)

Publisher
Oxford University Press
Copyright
the American Association for Public Opinion Research
ISSN
0033-362X
eISSN
1537-5331
DOI
10.1086/320036
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractThe key to understanding why people overreport is that those who are under the most pressure to vote are the ones most likely to misrepresent their behavior when they fail to do so. Among all nonvoters, the most likely to overreport are the more educated, partisan, and religious, and those who have been contacted and asked to vote for a candidate. The greater the concentration of African-American and Latino nonvoters in a district, the greater the probability of overreporting in those districts, both among those in the relevant minority group and among white Anglos. White nonvoters are more likely to overreport in the Deep South than elsewhere. Overreporting matters: using reported votes in place of validated votes substantially distorts standard multivariate explanations of voting, increasing the apparent importance of independent variables that are related in the same direction to both overreporting and voting and sharply decreasing the apparent importance of independent variables related in opposing directions to those two variables.

Journal

Public Opinion QuarterlyOxford University Press

Published: Mar 1, 2001

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