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Seasonally Varying Preferences: Theoretical Foundations for an Empirical Regularity

Seasonally Varying Preferences: Theoretical Foundations for an Empirical Regularity We investigate an asset pricing model with preferences cycling between high risk aversion and low EIS in fall/winter and the reverse in spring/summer. Calibrating to consumption data and allowing plausible preference parameter values, we produce returns that match observed equity and Treasury returns across the seasons: risky returns are higher and risk-free returns are lower or stable in fall/winter, and they reverse in spring/summer. Further, risky returns vary more than risk-free returns. A novel finding is that both EIS and risk aversion must vary seasonally to match observed returns. Further, the degree of necessary seasonal change in EIS is small. (JEL E44, G11, G12) http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Review of Asset Pricing Studies Oxford University Press

Seasonally Varying Preferences: Theoretical Foundations for an Empirical Regularity

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Publisher
Oxford University Press
Copyright
© The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com
ISSN
2045-9920
eISSN
2045-9939
DOI
10.1093/rapstu/rau002
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We investigate an asset pricing model with preferences cycling between high risk aversion and low EIS in fall/winter and the reverse in spring/summer. Calibrating to consumption data and allowing plausible preference parameter values, we produce returns that match observed equity and Treasury returns across the seasons: risky returns are higher and risk-free returns are lower or stable in fall/winter, and they reverse in spring/summer. Further, risky returns vary more than risk-free returns. A novel finding is that both EIS and risk aversion must vary seasonally to match observed returns. Further, the degree of necessary seasonal change in EIS is small. (JEL E44, G11, G12)

Journal

The Review of Asset Pricing StudiesOxford University Press

Published: Jun 12, 2014

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