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Strategic Trading When Central Bank Intervention Is Predictable

Strategic Trading When Central Bank Intervention Is Predictable Abstract Market prices are noisy signals of economic fundamentals. In a two-period model, we show that if the central bank uses market prices as guidance for intervention, large, strategic investors who benefit from high prices would depress market prices to induce a market-supportive intervention. Stronger anticipated interventions lead to deeper price depressions preintervention and sharper price reversals post- intervention. The central bank intervention harms strategic investors even though it is the investors who tried to mislead the central bank. The model predicts a V-shaped price pattern around central bank interventions, consistent with recent evidence. (JEL G14, G18) This content is only available as a PDF. © The Author 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model) http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Review of Asset Pricing Studies Oxford University Press

Strategic Trading When Central Bank Intervention Is Predictable

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies , Volume Advance Article – Apr 27, 2021

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Publisher
Oxford University Press
Copyright
Copyright © 2021 Society for Financial Studies
ISSN
2045-9920
eISSN
2045-9939
DOI
10.1093/rapstu/raab011
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Abstract Market prices are noisy signals of economic fundamentals. In a two-period model, we show that if the central bank uses market prices as guidance for intervention, large, strategic investors who benefit from high prices would depress market prices to induce a market-supportive intervention. Stronger anticipated interventions lead to deeper price depressions preintervention and sharper price reversals post- intervention. The central bank intervention harms strategic investors even though it is the investors who tried to mislead the central bank. The model predicts a V-shaped price pattern around central bank interventions, consistent with recent evidence. (JEL G14, G18) This content is only available as a PDF. © The Author 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model)

Journal

The Review of Asset Pricing StudiesOxford University Press

Published: Apr 27, 2021

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