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- Publisher
- Oxford University Press
- Copyright
- © The Author 2005. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oupjournals.org.
- ISSN
- 1479-8409
- eISSN
- 1479-8417
- DOI
- 10.1093/jjfinec/nbi021
- Publisher site
- See Article on Publisher Site
Abstract
Financial decision makers often consider the information in currency option valuations when making assessments about future exchange rates. The purpose of this article is to systematically assess the quality of option-based volatility and density forecasts. We use a unique dataset consisting of more than 10 years of daily data on over-the-counter (OTC) currency option prices. We find that the OTC implied volatilities provide largely unbiased and fairly accurate forecasts of one-month- and three-month-ahead realized volatility. Furthermore, we find that the one-month option implied density forecasts are well calibrated for the center of the distribution, but we find evidence of misspecification in the tail density forecasts.
Journal
Journal of Financial Econometrics – Oxford University Press
Published: Aug 5, 2005