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Equity Market Valuation: Assessing the Adequacy of Value Measures to Predict Index Returns

Equity Market Valuation: Assessing the Adequacy of Value Measures to Predict Index Returns Following the work of Lee, Myers and Swaminathan (1999), we develop robust tests of their intrinsic value measure, along with other traditional measures of value, for the Australian Stock Market. Specifically, we apply the tests to a broadly matched version of the Australian Asia Pacific Extra Liquid Series (APELS), which was recently introduced to Australia. A primary motivation for the paper was to assess the suggestion implied in the US study of a violation of capital market efficiency, where the use of publicly available information, namely a fundamental valuation measure using consensus analysts forecasts, could be used to predict returns. Our results do not support the conclusions reached by Lee, Myers and Swaminathan (1999). Possible reasons for this are the differing Market structures, the use of a different Index or the use of alternative statistical tests. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Australian Journal of Management SAGE

Equity Market Valuation: Assessing the Adequacy of Value Measures to Predict Index Returns

Australian Journal of Management , Volume 26 (2): 34 – Dec 1, 2001

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References (22)

Publisher
SAGE
Copyright
Copyright © by SAGE Publications
ISSN
0312-8962
eISSN
1327-2020
DOI
10.1177/031289620102600205
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Following the work of Lee, Myers and Swaminathan (1999), we develop robust tests of their intrinsic value measure, along with other traditional measures of value, for the Australian Stock Market. Specifically, we apply the tests to a broadly matched version of the Australian Asia Pacific Extra Liquid Series (APELS), which was recently introduced to Australia. A primary motivation for the paper was to assess the suggestion implied in the US study of a violation of capital market efficiency, where the use of publicly available information, namely a fundamental valuation measure using consensus analysts forecasts, could be used to predict returns. Our results do not support the conclusions reached by Lee, Myers and Swaminathan (1999). Possible reasons for this are the differing Market structures, the use of a different Index or the use of alternative statistical tests.

Journal

Australian Journal of ManagementSAGE

Published: Dec 1, 2001

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