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Geoffrey Board

Geoffrey Board 1983/1984 BUDGET I thought perhaps it might be the best way to proceed today if I began by referring briefly to my forecasts of last year. Generally speaking I was pleased with the outcome. My estimate of the current account deficit was, in the event, somewhat wide of the mark. Imports were more strongly affected than I had envisaged by the slump in demand. For the rest, the direction was right and for several of them I managed to fluke reasonably accurate figures. I must stress that forecasting is a hazardous business, as many of you are only too well aware. More often than not accuracy is a result of good fortune rather than percipience. I do think, however, that the thing that stood me in good stead was the realisation that last year's budget would fall to pieces within a short space of time and that the abandonment of expenditure restraint by the then goverrunent would lead inexorably to a massive blowout in the budget deficit. I said at this forum last year that the budget was a dangerous one that would lead to severe budgeting problems next year and beyond. Unfortunately, that has come to pass. Moving http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Australian Journal of Management SAGE

Geoffrey Board

Australian Journal of Management , Volume 8 (2_suppl): 6 – Dec 1, 1983
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Publisher
SAGE
Copyright
Copyright © by SAGE Publications
ISSN
0312-8962
eISSN
1327-2020
DOI
10.1177/031289628300802S01
Publisher site
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Abstract

1983/1984 BUDGET I thought perhaps it might be the best way to proceed today if I began by referring briefly to my forecasts of last year. Generally speaking I was pleased with the outcome. My estimate of the current account deficit was, in the event, somewhat wide of the mark. Imports were more strongly affected than I had envisaged by the slump in demand. For the rest, the direction was right and for several of them I managed to fluke reasonably accurate figures. I must stress that forecasting is a hazardous business, as many of you are only too well aware. More often than not accuracy is a result of good fortune rather than percipience. I do think, however, that the thing that stood me in good stead was the realisation that last year's budget would fall to pieces within a short space of time and that the abandonment of expenditure restraint by the then goverrunent would lead inexorably to a massive blowout in the budget deficit. I said at this forum last year that the budget was a dangerous one that would lead to severe budgeting problems next year and beyond. Unfortunately, that has come to pass. Moving

Journal

Australian Journal of Management – SAGE

Published: Dec 1, 1983

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