Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

A Potential Tsunami impact assessment of submarine landslide at Baiyun Depression in Northern South China Sea

A Potential Tsunami impact assessment of submarine landslide at Baiyun Depression in Northern... Background: With mature hydrocarbon industry, Northern South China Sea (NSCS) is a hot spot for future economic development. However, the local government and researchers lack of estimations about damages brought by a submarine landslide-generated tsunami. According to oceanographic surveys, eleven landslides in different scale have been discovered in Baiyun Depression of NSCS. Hence, the need to study potential tsunamis generated by submarine landslides in NSCS is urgent and necessary. This research, focused on potential threat linked to local tsunami sources, is in its early stage in China but it is of capital importance for the local people, local government and offshore economics. Finding: Taking landslide S4 for example, the formation, spreading and run-up are predicted. As calculated, the greatest height of tsunami generated by Landslide S4 is 17.5 m, occurring near Dongsha Islands, and the greatest run-up formed on the coastal line is 5.3 m, occurring near Shanwei City; the general height of waves attacking the coastal line is no more than 1.5m, but abnormally high waves might occur in 32 regions. Conclusions: Prediction of tsunami generated by Landslide S4 suggests that local landslides in NSCS may trigger tsunami hazards. Therefore, more efforts shall be made to investigate potential damages caused by a submarine landslide, particularly the submarine landslides at Baiyun Depression in NSCS. Keywords: Northern South China Sea; Baiyun Depression; Submarine landslide; Tsunami hazard assessment Introduction Suva Tsunami in 1953. Fuchs et al. (2010) used numerical Submarine landslides are major natural marine disasters simulations and physical tests to compare and analyze at- endangering deepwater oil and gas exploration and devel- tacks by a tsunami to an island. Sascha et al. (2010) opment platforms, pipelines, submarine cables and other assessed dangers posed by tsunamis generated by under- submarine facilities (NGI 2005). Meanwhile, submarine water landslides near Padang Island of Indonesia. landslides can generate local tsunamis with high run-ups, According to ITDB/WLD (2007) data, tsunamis caused posing a hazard to human lives and coastal facilities in huge by landslides accounted for at least 8% of the historical range (Levin and Nosov 2009). Tinti et al. (1999) used nu- tsunami events. Therefore, with the development of off- merical analogy to analyze the tsunami generated by the shore industry, it is necessary to investigate submarine landslide of Vulcano Island in 1988. Tinti and Bortolucci landslides for potential tsunamis hazard assessment. (2000) used 1D and 2D shallow-water wave models to Few reports and studies about local submarine landslide- analyzeenergytransmissionfroma submarinelandslideto generated tsunamis have been done in China, though a water body. Rahiman et al. (2007) established submarine local submarine landslide-generated tsunamis may pos- landslide-generated surge source model and earthquake- sibly occur. In November 1991, a submarine landslide generated tsunami model for numerical simulation of occurred during the preliminary pile sinking process of the 200,000 ton-scale crude oil terminal project of China * Correspondence: bolinhuang@aliyun.com Sinopec at Aoshan, Xingzhong, having caused collapse of Wuhan Center of China Geological Survey, Guanggu Road 69#, Wuhan City, many pile foundations and generated a 2-3 m tsunami China (Hu and Ye 2006). Chen et al. (2007) analyzed tsunami Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © 2014 Sun and Huang; licensee Springer. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 2 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 hazards in China based on physical occurrence conditions in this area may cause profound impact and damages. of tsunamis, he believed that major tsunamis in south-east Based on data from many marine geological surveys coastal areas of China is possibly in the south, for ex- (Marine Geological Survey Bureau of the Ministry of Geol- ample, violent earthquakes west to the Philippines, volca- ogy and Mineral Resources, China 1993; Sun et al. 2008), noes at Sunda Straits of Indonesia and large submarine this paper studies the characteristics of submarine landslides landslides in tsunamis in South China Sea. Geological in NSCS, did numerical calculations of possible tsunamis to survey from 1990s showed that there were many large be generated by the landslides, and analyzed the tsunami landslides in NSCS (Marine Geological Survey Bureau hazards that may be caused by submarine landslide. of the Ministry of Geology and Mineral Resources, China 1993). Fen et al. (1994) discovered a wide range Geological setting of submarine landslide at the outer continental shelf Many submarine landslides in NSCS are located at transi- and upper continental slope of NSCS, at the depth of tional belts between continental shelves and deepwater con- about 180-650 m. Yang et al. (2011) described, in details, tinental slopes, with the water depth of about 200-2000 m, the types and features of geological disasters in the most of which are at the water depth of 500-1500 m. The deepwater area to south-east Hainan in South China shallow-water area is the north continental shelf of South Sea. Sun et al. (2008) described the geometrical shapes China Sea at Zhujiangkou Basin (Figure 1). Due to struc- and deforming characteristics of Baiyun Landslide, a tural difference during formation of the continental shelf, large submarine landslide discovered in NSCS, by using up-and-down movements and sediment sources, water the multi-beam water depth strategy and 3D seismic depth at the outer bend of the continental shelf ranges be- data. Sun (2011) had deep research on the forming tween 145-379 m. Beyond the slope bend, there is a sharp mechanism of geological disasters in the deepwater con- continent slope with a gradient of more than ten times that tinental slopeareaofNSCS; one of important inclusion of the continental shelf. In tectonic side, the deepwater area is that the submarine landslide in NSCS is relative to can be also classified into Zhujiangkou Basin, and most hydrocarbon. Liu (2010) analyzed, by taking the north- at Baiyun Depression Region. The depression in this area ernareaofasanexample,the impact of high pore pres- covers over 20,000 km ; it is the greatest depression with sure and water precipitation resulted from natural gas the thickest sediment in Zhujiangkou Basin. hydrate decomposition on submarine landslides. Through the analysis of data from deepwater area dril- It can be seen from the foregoing studies that there are ling, tracing and interpretation of many seismic reflection landslides in the NSCS which areunstablesubmarineareas profiles at Zhujiangkou Basin where Baiyun Depression is of South China Sea and origins of potential local tsunamis. located (Liu 2010), and comparison of adjacent strata it Meanwhile, Baiyun Depression is located at Zhujiangkou was observedthat eight sets of seismic sequences have Basin, an area with relatively mature development of hydro- been developed in the deepwater area of Zhujiangkou carbon in China (Jiang 2009); a submarine landslide occurs Basin, i.e. theQuaternarySystem, WanshanFormation, Figure 1 Geological background skecth map of NSCS, the black dashed frame is the location of Zhujiangkou Basin, the white box is our study area and the location of Figure 2 (Data from SRTM). Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 3 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 Yuehai Formation, Hanjiang Formation, Zhujiang Forma- stratum pressure of Baiyun Depression is normal at the tion, Enping Formation and Wenchang Formation strata shallow-water area, and weak in the deepwater area; how- from up to down (Sun et al. 2008). In Wenchang Forma- ever, wide range of diapir structure in the Depression sug- tion and Enping Formation, lacustrine deposit and large gests that the area might have experienced three times of lake basin deposit are developed, respectively, mainly overpressure accumulations and release in the late period comprising source rocks. In Zhuhai Formation, large ner- (Shi et al. 2006), creating pressure condition for develop- itic shelf deposit is developed. In Zhujiang Formation and ment of submarine landslides. Hanjiang Formation, continental slope deepwater deposit ZhujiangRiver provides Zhujiangkou Basin with plenty is developed (Sun 2011). of sediment sources, with depositing rate up to 160 cm/ka, Baiyun Depression experienced three evolving forma- creating geological condition for gravity-triggered land- tion stages, which are rift stage, thermal subsidence slides (Sun 2011). Moreover, this region is intensive sub- stage and neotectonic stage in the Cenozoic (Gong and marine geological exploration area, both drilling and the Li 1997; Zhu et al. 2007), and formed “three uplifts and decomposition of hydrocarbon may induce landslides two depressions”, featuring great terrain fluctuations and (Locat and Lee 2002; Fang and Zhang 2010). sharp gradients. Baiyun Depression was preliminarily formed at the rift stage. At the thermal subsidence stage, Submarine landslide descriptions major block of Baiyun Depression sank fast and greatly; Due to geological structure, landform and complex sub- the ancient Zhujiang Delta moved to deposit in the depres- marine dynamic conditions, Baiyun Depression in NSCS sion, providing plenty of sediment sources (MiL and Shen has well developed landslide mass, sliding sand slope, 2008). At the neotectonic stage, structural sedimentation large erosion gullies, submarine scarps and other un- velocity and scale, as well as depositing rate and scale are stable landforms; it is an area with rather unstable sub- in succeeded development; and many late faults were de- marine engineering geological conditions in NSCS. veloped at Baiyun Depression and its surrounding area due According to oceanic geotechnical surveys (Marine Geo- to NWW subduction of Philippine plate, having created logical Survey Bureau of the Ministry of Geology and structural conditions for development of submarine land- Mineral Resources, China 1993; Sun et al. 2008), Baiyun slides (Sun et al. 2005). Through study on pressure evolu- Depression has eleven submarine landslides with differ- tion of Baiyun Depression strata, it is found that the ent scales, whose codes are S1 ~ S11 (Figure 2). Except for Figure 2 Distribution diagram of submarine landslides (After Fen et al., 1994 and Sun, 2011). S1-S11 are landslide codes; carmine lines refer to location or area of landslides; yellow lines refer to profile lines. Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 4 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 Table 1 Description of submarine landslide belts (After Fen et al., 1994 and Sun, 2011) Code Depth Length Width Thickness Area Volume Gradient 2 9 3 (m) (km) (km) (m) (km ) (×10 m ) (°) S1 190-250 55 3 25-50 110 4 2-4 S2 210-230 75 2 10-20 150 2.2 2-3 S3 420 55 5 10-20 110 1.6 2-3 S4 500-1800 50 16 50-200 400 50 3-4 S5 150-200 60 15 20-50 105 3.7 1 S6-S9 150-370 5-10 3-4 20-50 1-9 S10 150-250 52 1-10 10-20 28 0.43 1 S11 2500 150 17.5 50 10000 500 1-3 landslide S4 and S11, other landslides are in SW zonal dis- sliding. Landslide S8 and S9 have back scarps, with rock- tribution along the outer bend line of the continental shelf, soil collapse. Landslide S10 has imminent sliding cliff, col- the ancient coastal line and the front scarp of the ancient lapsed valley, hilly landslide mass and arc-shaped sliding delta. Specific locations, the water depth range and scales of surface, featuring multiphase sliding. The largest depth these landslides are shown in Table 1. All these landslides of Landslide S4 is 200 m, and the largest volume is 9 3 are discovered by combining 2D and 3D seismic data and 50 × 10 m (Table 1). Landslide S4 was developed from multi-beam waterdepth measurement (Marine Geological the outer bend of continental shelf, with development Survey Bureau of the Ministry of Geology and Mineral Re- depth and slope obviously larger than Landslides S1-S3 sources, China 1993; Sun et al. 2008). and S5-S10 (Figure 2). Meanwhile, S4 has obvious move- Features of submarine landslides can be clearly identi- ment of hilly blocks and multiple landslide benches; it is fied by using side sonar, depth measurement, sub-bottom obviously active. Landslide S11 is a giant landslide, and is profiling and single-channel seismograph. For example, now formally named as Baiyun Landslide. Baiyun Land- 9 3 features of back scarp (scarp, sharp slope or cliff), landslide slide is in huge volume of 500 × 10 m and currently the valley or collapsed valley (depression or gully), landslide largest landslide discovered in South China Sea. The mass (hilly block), landslide bench and sliding surfaces can multiphase activity of Baiyun Landslide and associa- be known by using the foregoing geophysical prospecting tions between its deformation and gas or fluid move- methods. Figure 3 shows the landslide profiles of S1-S5 and ment have been detected by using seismic wave, but S10, and schematizes some landslide features. Landslide the inducing mechanism of Baiyun Landslide is still S1 zone has prominent landslide scarp, collapsed valley under research (Li et al. 2014a, 2014b). and benches, with development of reverse benches, indi- This paper focuses on prediction of tsunami disasters gen- cating that the landslide is at the preliminary stage and erated by submarine landslides, and thus will not give too will continue the development. Landslides S2 and S3 have much description of the submarine landslide characteristics. visiblelandslidebackscarps, depressions, landslide benches For detail features and stability of the submarine landslides and bedding flexure, indicating that Landslide S2 and S3 in Baiyun Depression, please refer to relevant special docu- are active landslides, and will continue slide along the ments (Fen et al. 1994; Sun et al. 2008; Sun 2011; Liu 2010). slopes. Landslide S5 has block collapses at the east and west ends, back scarp and layered landslide in the middle. Modeling of potentially induced tsunamis Landslide S6 and S7 are layered landslides, with hilly de- Since initial investigation of submarine landslides by posits at the bottom of the slopes, featuring multiphase United States Geological Survey in early 1990s, studies Figure 3 Sectional view of some landslides. Profile lines correspond to yellow lines in Figure 3. Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 5 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 Table 2 Input/Output parameters of Landslide S4 in TOPICS Input parameters about S4 Output parameters about original tsunamis Barycenter initial depth 1,350 m initial acceleration 0.18 m/s Mean incline angle 3.5° Tsunami wavelength 128,716.5 m Initial length 50,000 m Max.Froude number 1.74 Initial maximum thickness 62.5 m trough amplitude −13.6 m Initial maximum width 16,000 m peak amplitude 3.67 m Bulk density 1,900 kg/m Tsunami source periods 18.6 min about submarine landslides and tsunami have been con- the sliding block moves on a slope with a gradient of θ. tinuously deepened (Prior 1984; Ward 2001; Okal 2003; Based on moment equilibrium plus gravity, hydraulic drag Ward and Day 2003; Masson et al. 2006; Uriten et al. and buoyancy, they mathematically described the move- 2009; Vanneste et al. 2011; Sue et al. 2011). In this paper, ment and initial surge field of the rigid body, formed a achievements of Grilli and Watts (2005), Enet et al. (2003) submarine landslide-generated surge source model and and Enet & Grilli (2007) relating to submarine landslide- wrote it into the TOPICS module of Geowave. In this generated tsunamis are used as reference. The rigid body paper the submarine landslide-generated surge model in sliding model established by Grilli and Watts (2005) is a TOPICS is employed to predict the initial surge source symmetrical semi-elliptical sliding block, extending for a generated by movement of Landslide S4, and Boussinesq length of B along its long axis; the greatest thickness is T; equation FUNWAVE module of Geowave is utilized to Figure 4 Instant sea amplitude diagram, indicating instant sea wave amplitudes at different time points to reflect conditions of a tsunami on the sea surface at corresponding time point. Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 6 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 calculate spreading and run-up of surge waves (Applied Zhujiangkou and some islands near the continent. The Fluids Engineering Inc and University of Delaware, U.S.A bathymetric and topographic data is SRTM data from 2008). NASA. The submarine translation slide model of TOPICS It is very expensive and unnecessary to evaluate the is used to calculate initial tsunami source. For this transla- tsunami hazards for all submarine landslides in current tion slide model, the model is a tsunami source model situation; moreover, considering the research purposes established by Grilli and Watts et al. with advanced bound- of the paper, this research only selects a large and ary element method based on full non-linear potential flow strongly active landslide for the prediction of tsunami equations. This model is later extended and experimentally hazards. Landslide S11 is the largest landslide in this validated by Enet et al. (2003) and Enet & Grilli (2007). The area but has obvious multi-phase slide characteristics, domain formed a 1,62 × 1,685 computational network with low possibility of inducing the entire slide only in a comprising many discrete 400 m × 400 m grid cells, with phase. However, due to unclear inducing mechanism, it each time step of 0.58 s and totally 26,001 computing is difficult to divide its sliding phases and potential slid- steps, about 16,000 s or 4.5 h. ing areas. Landslide S4 is selected for this prediction for Table 2 shows the parameters of S4 input in TOPICS the following reasons: 1) Landslide S4 has the second lar- and relevant characteristic indicators of the output initial gest volume, and the biggest slope angle; 2) Landslide S4 is tsunami source. located within Baiyun Depression, featuring strong activity; Through calculation, conditions of tsunami generated 3) Landslide S4 lies in the region of NSCS which is a key by Landslide S4 were predicted. After sliding of Land- target area for development of hydrocarbon in future, and slide S4, an initial surge field was formed with crest in depth exceeding 500 m is a condition for occurrence of the south and trough in the north (see output parame- natural gas and water mixture. Therefore, submarine ters in Table 2 & Figure 4). Afterwards, the tsunami Landslide S4 is taken as an example, and through calcula- started spreading. It can be seen from the instant sea di- tion of tsunami generated by movement of Landslide S4, agrams that the tsunami spread in all directions, but the possible tsunami disasters in NSCS are assessed. strongest part was the tsunami waves vertical to the slid- Based on the geological location of Landslide S4, a land- ing direction of the landslide (Figure 4, t = 25.9 min and sea computational domain (as shown in Figure 2) extending 56.6 min). Rows of water walls were formed and ad- about 672 km long and 673 km wide was established, in vanced towards the east/west direction firstly. During which key coastal cities such as Macau, Hong Kong, Shan- advancement towards the continent, waves arrived at tou and Shanwei cities in Guangdong Province were in- Dongsha Island at about the 55th min; partial waves ran cluded, so were islands such as Dongsha Islands, islands at up to 15 m. When passing by Dongsha Island, the Figure 5 Maximum amplitudes of water particles in the computational domain within 4.5 h. Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 7 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 Figure 6 Coastal run-up diagram. Areas circled indicate abnormal run-ups compared with the surrounding areas. Yellow circles indicate run-ups of 1.5-2.5 m; red circles indicate run-ups of 2.5-3.5 m; carmine circles indicate run-ups of 3.5-5.5 m; other coastal run-ups are less than 1.5 m. tsunami flowed around and formed cross tsunami waves Shangtou City. Two run-ups of 5.3 m occurred in Shanwei advancing towards the continent. This was common in City and Yezhoushan of Haifeng County under Shanwei other offshore areas (Figure 4, t = 106.3 min). When ar- City. Additionally, there were ten run-ups of 2.5-3.5 m riving at the coastal line, the first tsunami waves ran up, and eighteen run-ups of 1.5-2.5 m distributed crosswise with reflection, refractions and diffractions, forming along the coastal line (Figure 6). At other coastal lines in complex waveforms (Figure 4, t = 194.0 min). the computational domain, the tsunami ran up for about The instant sea surface diagrams reflected conditions 1m. of the tsunami on the sea surface at different time points; The abnormal run-ups were significantly dependent to the maximum amplitude diagram (Figure 5) reflected the submarine canyons. It can be seen from Figure 7 that, maximum amplitudes of the calculation points in the seabed topography may impact nearshore surge height computational domain within 4.5 h. Though 4.5 h was and costal run-ups. In nearshore area, the surge height long, as the wave velocity was positively correlated to the in seabed ridge is higher than that in other places. While water depth, the tsunami waves could not reach all along near the coast, the run-ups at both sides of submarine can- the coastal line in 4.5 h. In Figure 6, tsunami wavefronts yons are obviously higher those in other areas (Figure 7). waves reached the coastal line in areas except for the east All these indicate that submarine canyons near the coast area of Shantou. The maximum amplitude diagram clearly can focus wave energy (Wijetunge 2009; Didenkulova and shows the general route of tsunami waves, particularly the Pelinovsky 2010). spreading path of the tsunami waves after wave breaking What did these run-ups mean to the coastal lines? Let’s offshore. The tsunami generated at the water depth of take Shanwei City as an example. In Shanwei City, there 1,350 m encountered reduction of water depth when are seaside scenic spots, many factories, warehouses and spreading towards the continent, forming hydraulic docks, but no breakwaters; some waterside roads are no jumps. Therefore, maximum amplitudes of 17.5 m in the computational domain occurred on Dongsha Islands, which is the first exposure of land in the propagating process. As the tsunami propagated for nearly 300 km long to reach the coast, great energy of the tsunami was consumed. At the water depth of about 100 m, the max- imum tsunami wave was about 6 m; at the water depth of about 50 m, the maximum tsunami wave was about 3 m. Near the coastal line, the reduction of water depth leads to the shoaling effect of waves, getting higher and moving slower. When arriving at the continent, the tsunami waves formed run-ups. The maximum run-up of 17.5 m caused by Landslide S4-generated tsunami occurred not in Figure 6 but on Dongsha Island in Figure 5. The max- imum inundation lengths in the calculating area were about 1600 m located in Shanwei, 150 m in Hong Kong and 200 m in Shantou. In Figure 6, run-ups at the Figure 7 Enlarged map of part of Figure 6, located between coastal line were shown amplified. There were four run- Hong Kong and Shanwei. Blue lines were sounding lines. up areas of 3.5-5.5 m, lying in the east and west sides of Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 8 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 Figure 8 The tsunami travel time contour line map, the unit of contour lines are minute. Figure 9 Warning division diagram: blue for area subject to blue warning area, yellow for area subject to yellow warning area, orange for area subject to orange warning area, red for area subject to red warning area. Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 9 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 Figure 10 Hydrograph of typical points in the potential tsunami. The locations of G1 ~ G3 can be seen in Figure 9., and G3 is on the coastal line of Dapeng Bay. more than 5 m high. If some tsunami like tsunami in- follows: blue warning area for 0-1 m, yellow warning area duced to Landslide S4 occurs in NSCS, particularly in for 1-2 m, orange warning area for 2-3 m and red warning the 32 run-up splace mentioned above, the coastal pro- area for above 3 m. Distribution of the warning areas is duction and living quarters will suffer greatly or even a showninFigure8.As the computational domain is lim- catastrophe. ited, a Landslide S4-generated tsunami has impact on Also, the tsunami travel time (TTT) is one of most im- more than the computational domain, and thus the portant information related to early-warning and evacu- warning area is wider than that covered in prediction. ation plans. The phases of celerity are relative to the Meanwhile, in a warning and emergency response plan, bathymetry (Le Méhauté 1976), so TTT map (Figure 8) is it shall be considered that there might be more than one distributed like arch shape. As the coastal line is long, wave crest attacks due to flow disturbance by islands. time for tsunami waves to arrive differs greatly. For ex- From the three typical hydrographs shown in Figure 10, it ample, after occurrence of the landslide, it took 75 min for can be known that there were two violent attacks at off- tsunami waves to arrive at Dongsha Island, about 145 min shore of Hong Kong (the second attack higher than the to arrive at off-island of Hong Kong, about 160 min to ar- first attack). The coastal line of Dapeng Bay suffered mul- rive at Shangwei City, 200 min to arrive at Shantou City tiple waves’ attacks that lasted for more than 1.5 hours and 240 min to arrive at Macau. If wave buoys are set at with wave height of about 0.8 m. Multiple attacks and depth of 200 m, early-warning will be emitted when tsu- long duration of a tsunami shall be emphasized in emer- nami passing the buoy, thus valuable time of 1 hour will gency response and warning. be left for the evacuation. This tsunamis hazard assessment can be compared with According to the Contingency Plan against Disasters 1953 Suva tsunami of Fiji, some underwater landslide- of Storm Surges, Sea Waves, Tsunamis and Sea Ice (State generated tsunamis in the Padang region, Indonesia, and Oceanic Administration of China 2009), the Landslide the Grand Bank tsunami of North American coastline. S4-generated tsunamis in the computational domain can Based on Rahiman et al.’s (2007) analysis, a simulation be rated for warning (Figure 9). According to this Contin- using a 60 million cubic metre submarine landslide lo- gency Plan, the tsunami influence region can be rated as cated at the head of the Suva Canyon, 4 km to the Table 3 The relatived data of submarine landslides and its tsunamis Name Water depth Landslide volume Initial wave peak Initial wave trough Max. run-up 9 3 S4 landslide 1350 m 50 × 10 m 3.67 m −13.6 m 5.5 m 9 3 Suva landslide 125 m 0.05 × 10 m 11 m −40.8 m 10 m 9 3 Grand Bank 10,000 m 200 × 10 m (Max.) 3-8 m 13 m 9 3 Pandang landslides 1300 m 0.7 × 10 m 2.0 — 3.6 m 9 3 1300 m 0.5 × 10 m 2.1 — 3.6 m 9 3 1300 m 0.1 × 10 m 0.2 —— Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 10 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 WSW of Suva City reproduces the observed run-up. Islands). General wave height of tsunami attacks at Based on Sascha et al.’s (2010) study, some landslides the coastal line is less than 1.5 m, with 32 abnormal 70 km off Padang (Western Sumatra, Indonesia) may high run-ups. The maximum run-up at the continental generate tsunamis, and the yielding maximum run-up is coastal line is 5.3 m and the maximum inundation is about 3 m, while Padang with over 750,000 inhabitants 1600 m, occurring at Shanwei City. exhibits high tsunami vulnerability due to its very low 4) Tsunami warning areas are divided according to the elevation. On November 18th, 1929, in North American tsunami contingency plan of China. As tsunami coastline, a submarine landslide occurred near the propagation correlates with water depth, time for Grand Banks by a large earthquake with Mw = 7.2 mo- the tsunami to reach different points differs greatly, ment magnitude causing 28 fatalities (Fine et al. 2005). providing a time difference for warning; for warning Some main relatived analysis data of The S4 landslide, and contingency, multiple wave attacks and long Suva landslide, Pandang landslides and its tsunamis are wave duration shall be considered. listed in Table 3. The comparison shows that the results of Prediction of Landslide S4-generated tsunamis tsunami generated by S4 landslide are in the middle of the suggests that local tsunami hazard might occur in examples. Some landslide with smaller volume has bigger China. However, as rare studies have been done on tsunami than S4. Tsunami generated by much bigger land- local submarine landslide-generated tsunamis in slide is not such bigger than the tsunami generated by S4 China, the government and researchers lack of landslide. The critical parameters for tsunami generation estimations about damages brought by a submarine are the landslide volume and water depth. landslide-generated tsunami. Therefore, more efforts shall be made to investigate potential damages Findings caused by a submarine landslide, particularly the Northern South China Sea, hot spot for oil and gas re- submarine landslides at Baiyun Depression in NSCS. search and production, is a critical area for China. Some Additionally, submarine landslide-generated significant submarine landslides are briefly described. tsunamis shall be made widely known, so as to avoid Tsunamis modelling are tested for some landslides damages technically and socially. sources in order to point out areas at risk. The forma- Competing interests tion, spreading and run-up of tsunamis generated by The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Landslide S4 within 4.5 h in a sea area of 672 × 673 km are predicted by using the GEO-WAVE Boussinesq Authors’ contributions SY and HB choosed the research direction of tsunami generated by model. As calculated, the greatest height of tsunami gen- submarine landslide, collected informations of submarine landslides around erated by Landslide S4 is 17.5 m, and the greatest run- Baiyun depression, NSCS, carried out the numerical simulation study on up formed on the coastal line is 5.3 m. This shows that tsunami generated by landslide, and drafted the manuscript. Both authors read and approved the final manuscript. numerous places of high vulnerability along seashore are potentially prone to significant tsunami disasters. Acknowledgements This study has been funded by the National Marine Public Scientific Research Conclusions (ID: 201005005) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (project ID: 41372321). We would like to extend our thanks to Dr. Hu Guanghai and Based on distribution of submarine landslides near Baiyun Senior Engineer Song Yupeng from the First Institute of Oceanography, SOA Depression of NSCS and prediction of tsunamis generated for their provision of large quantities of useful data and information. Finally, by submarine Landslide S4, the following conclusions are the authors want to thank two anonymous reviewers, Prof. Wang Fawu, Dr. Yang Hufeng and Prof. Patrick Wassmer for their helpful suggestion. drawn with suggestions proposed: This MS evaluates the potentiality for submarine landslides to induce tsunamis in Northern South China Sea. Northern South China Sea, hot spot for oil and gas 1) The NSCS has mature development of hydrocarbon; research and production, is a critical area for China. Some significant submarine landslides are briefly described and the authors investigate the potential for Baiyun Depression in this area has developed eleven landslide-induced tsunamis. The local governments along the shoreline and landslides of different scales. Movement of landslides offshore economics are not aware of the threat to this area related to large in this area may cause profound impact and submarine landslides and associate tsunamis. Tsunamis modelling are tested for some landslides sources in order to point out areas at risk. This approach shows damages. that numerous places of high vulnerability along seashore are potentially prone 2) Suppose submarine Landslide S4 occurs. The to significant tsunami disasters. This research, focused on potential threat linked TOPICS submarine landslide-generated surge to local tsunami sources, is in its early stage in China but it is of capital importance for the local people, local government and offshore economics. model is used to establish a 672 × 673 km submarine This MS also reminds many researchers and research institutions that one landslide-generated tsunami model, so as to predict should not ignore local sources for tsunami generation in China. formation, spreading and run-ups within 4.5 h of a Author details tsunami. The First Institute of Oceanography, SOA. Xianxialing Road 6#, Laoshan 3) Landslide S4 may generate a tsunami with the District, Qingdao City, China. Wuhan Center of China Geological Survey, maximum height of 17.5 m (occurring on Dongsha Guanggu Road 69#, Wuhan City, China. Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 11 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 Received: 14 August 2014 Accepted: 20 October 2014 Prior DB (1984) Subaqueous landslides. Proceedings of the IV International Symposium on Landslides, Toronto 1:179–196 Rahiman IHT, Pettinga JR, Watts P (2007) The source mechanism and numerical modeling of the 1953 Suva tsunami, Fiji. Mar Geol 237:55–70 Sascha B, Andrey YB, Christoph G, Stefan L (2010) Hazard assessment of References underwater landslide-generated tsunamis: a case study in the Padang region, Applied Fluids Engineering Inc, University of Delaware, U.S.A (2008) Geowave 1.1 Indonesia. Nat Hazards 53:205–218 Tutorial Shi W, Chen H, Chen C (2006) Modeling of pressure evolution and Chen Y, Chen Q, Zhang W (2007) Tsunami disaster in China. Journal of Natural hydrocarbon migration in the Baiyun Depression, Pearl River mouth Disasters 16(2):1–6 basin, China. Earth Science-Journal of China University of Geosciences Didenkulova I, Pelinovsky E (2010) Runup of tsunami waves in U-shaped bays. 31(2):229–336 Pure Appl Geophys 168:1239–1249 State Oceanic Administration of China (2009) Contingency Plan against Disasters Enet F, Grilli ST and Watts P (2003) Laboratory Experiments for Tsunamis of Storm Surges, Sea Waves, Tsunamis and Sea Ice, NO.685 Generated by Underwater Landslides: Comparison with Numerical Modeling. th Sue LP, Nokes RI, Davidson MJ (2011) Tsunami generation by submarine Proceeding of the 13 International Offshore and Polar Engineering landslides: comparison of physical and numerical models. Environ Fluid Mech Conference: 372–379 11:133–165 Enet F, Grilli ST (2007) Experimental study of tsunami generation by three-dimensional Sun Y (2011) The Mechanism and Prediction of Deepwater Geohazard in the rigid underwater landslides. J Waterw Port Coastal Ocean Eng 133:442–454 Northern of South China Sea, The thesis for Ph.D. Institute of Oceanology, Fang C, Zhang W (2010) Mechanism and analysis of landslide on the seabed due Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao to the decomposition of gas hydrate. Chinese Journal of Studia Marina Sinica Sun Y, Wu S, Wang Z, Li Q, Wang X, Dong D, Liu F (2008) The geometry and 50:149–156 deformation characteristics of Baiyun submarine landslide. Mar Geol Quat Fen W, Shi Y, Chen L (1994) Research for seafloor landslide stability on the outer Geol 6:69–77 continental shelf and the upper continental slope in the northern south Sun Z, Pang X, Zhong Z (2005) Dynamics of tertiary tectonic evolution of the China Sea. Mar Geol Quat Geol 14(2):81–94 Baiyun Sag in the Pearl River mouth basin. Chinese Journal of Earth Science Fine IV, Rabinovich AB, Bornhold BD, Thomson RE, Kulikov EA (2005) The Grand Frontiers 12(4):489–498 Banks landslide-generated tsunami of November 18, 1929: prelaminary Tinti S, Bortolucci E (2000) Energy of water waves induced by submarine analysis and numerical modeling. Mar Geol 215:45–57 landslides. Pure Appl Geophys 157:281–318 Fuchs H, Heller V, Hager WH (2010) Impulse wave run-over: experimental benchmark Tinti S, Bortolucci E, Armigliato A (1999) Numerical simulation of the study for numerical modeling. Exp Fluids 49:985–1004 landslide-induced tsunami of 1988 on Vulcano Island, Italy. Bull Gong Z, Li S (1997) Preliminary Analysis of Basins and Petroleum Accumulation in Volcanol 61:121–137 the Northern Continental Margin Basin of South China Sea. Chinese Science Uriten B, Twichell D, Lynett P, Geist E, Chaytor J, Lee H, Buczkowski B, Flores C Press, Beijing (2009) Regional Assessment of Tsunami Potential in the Gulf of Mexico – Grilli ST, Watts P (2005) Tsunami generation by submarine mass failure. Part I: Report to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. Geological modeling, experimental validation, and sensitivity analysis. J Water Port Survey, U.S Coastal Ocean Eng 131:283–297 Vanneste M, Forsberg CF, Glimsdal S, Harbitz CB, Issler D, Kvalstad TJ, Løvholt F, Hu T, Ye Y (2006) Prediction models of landslide tsunami and its application. Nadim F (2011) Submarine Landslides and their Consequences: What do we Chinese Journal of Marine Sciences 24(3):21–30 know, what can we do? Proceedings of the second World Landslide Forum, ITDB/WLD (2007) Integrated Tsunami Database for the World Ocean, Version 6.51 Rome of February 20, 2007. CD-ROM, Tsunami Laboratory, ICMMG SD RAS, Ward SN (2001) Landslide tsunami. J Geophys Res 106(6):11201–11215 Novosibirsk Ward SN, Day S (2003) Ritter Island Volcano-lateral collapse and the tsunami of Jiang X (2009) Forming conditions and genetic analysis of natural gas hydrate. 1888. Geophys J Int 154:891-9-2 Coal Geology of China 21(12):07–11 Wijetunge JJ (2009) Field measurements and numerical simulations of the Le Méhauté B (1976) An Introduction to Hydrodynamics and Water Waves. 2004 tsunami impact on the east coast of Sri Lanka. Pure Appl Springer, New York Geophys 16:593–622 Levin B, Nosov M (2009) Physics of Tsunamis. Springer, Netherlands 1–29 Yang W, Zhang Y, Li B (2011) Types and characteristics of deepwater Li W, Wu S, Wang X, Zhao F, Wang D, Mi L, Li Q (2014a) Baiyun slide and its geologic hazard in Qiongdongnan of the South China Sea. Offshore Oil relation to fluid migration in the northern slope of Southern China Sea. 31(1):1–7 Submarine Mass Movements and Their Consequences 37:105–115 Zhu W, Zhang G, Yang S (2007) Gas Geology in the Northern Continental Liu F (2012) A Safety evaluation for Submarine Slope Instability of the Northern Margin Basin of South China Sea. Chinese Petroleum Industry Press, South China Sea Due to Gas Hydrate Dissociation, The thesis for Ph.D. Beijing Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao Locat J, Lee HJ (2002) Submarine landslide: advances and challenges. Canada doi:10.1186/s40677-014-0007-0 Geotechnology Journal 39(1):193–212 Cite this article as: Yongfu and Bolin: A Potential Tsunami impact Marine Geological Survey Bureau of the Ministry of Geology and Mineral assessment of submarine landslide at Baiyun Depression in Northern Resources, China (1993) Marine Engineering Geology Report of Zhunjiangkou South China Sea. Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014 1:7. Basin. South China Sea Masson DG, Harbitz CB, Wynn RB, Pedersen G, LØvholt F (2006) Submarine landslides: processes, triggers and hazard prediction. Phil Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 364:2009–2039 Submit your manuscript to a MiL ZG, Shen H (2008) Eocene-lower oligocene sedimentation characteristics of journal and benefi t from: Baiyun sag in the deep water area of Pearl River mouth basin. Acta PetroleiSinica 29(1):29–33 7 Convenient online submission Li W, Shiguo W, Wang X, Zhao F, Wang D, LijunMi QL (2014b) Baiyun Slide 7 Rigorous peer review and its relation to fluid migration in the Northen slope of Southern China Sea. Adances in Natural and Technological Hazard Research 7 Immediate publication on acceptance 37:105–113 7 Open access: articles freely available online Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) (2005) Offshore geohazards[R]. Summary 7 High visibility within the fi eld report for research institution-based strategic project 2002-2005, NGI report 7 Retaining the copyright to your article No.20021023-2 Okal EA (2003) T waves from the 1998 Papua New Guinea earthquake and its aftershocks: timing the tsunamigenic slump. Pure Appl Geophys Submit your next manuscript at 7 springeropen.com 160:1843–1863 http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Geoenvironmental Disasters Springer Journals

A Potential Tsunami impact assessment of submarine landslide at Baiyun Depression in Northern South China Sea

Geoenvironmental Disasters , Volume 1 (1) – Dec 18, 2014

Loading next page...
 
/lp/springer-journals/a-potential-tsunami-impact-assessment-of-submarine-landslide-at-baiyun-V8ozFq39NX

References (46)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2014 by Sun and Huang; licensee Springer.
Subject
Environment; Environment, general; Earth Sciences, general; Geography (general); Geoecology/Natural Processes; Natural Hazards; Environmental Science and Engineering
eISSN
2197-8670
DOI
10.1186/s40677-014-0007-0
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Background: With mature hydrocarbon industry, Northern South China Sea (NSCS) is a hot spot for future economic development. However, the local government and researchers lack of estimations about damages brought by a submarine landslide-generated tsunami. According to oceanographic surveys, eleven landslides in different scale have been discovered in Baiyun Depression of NSCS. Hence, the need to study potential tsunamis generated by submarine landslides in NSCS is urgent and necessary. This research, focused on potential threat linked to local tsunami sources, is in its early stage in China but it is of capital importance for the local people, local government and offshore economics. Finding: Taking landslide S4 for example, the formation, spreading and run-up are predicted. As calculated, the greatest height of tsunami generated by Landslide S4 is 17.5 m, occurring near Dongsha Islands, and the greatest run-up formed on the coastal line is 5.3 m, occurring near Shanwei City; the general height of waves attacking the coastal line is no more than 1.5m, but abnormally high waves might occur in 32 regions. Conclusions: Prediction of tsunami generated by Landslide S4 suggests that local landslides in NSCS may trigger tsunami hazards. Therefore, more efforts shall be made to investigate potential damages caused by a submarine landslide, particularly the submarine landslides at Baiyun Depression in NSCS. Keywords: Northern South China Sea; Baiyun Depression; Submarine landslide; Tsunami hazard assessment Introduction Suva Tsunami in 1953. Fuchs et al. (2010) used numerical Submarine landslides are major natural marine disasters simulations and physical tests to compare and analyze at- endangering deepwater oil and gas exploration and devel- tacks by a tsunami to an island. Sascha et al. (2010) opment platforms, pipelines, submarine cables and other assessed dangers posed by tsunamis generated by under- submarine facilities (NGI 2005). Meanwhile, submarine water landslides near Padang Island of Indonesia. landslides can generate local tsunamis with high run-ups, According to ITDB/WLD (2007) data, tsunamis caused posing a hazard to human lives and coastal facilities in huge by landslides accounted for at least 8% of the historical range (Levin and Nosov 2009). Tinti et al. (1999) used nu- tsunami events. Therefore, with the development of off- merical analogy to analyze the tsunami generated by the shore industry, it is necessary to investigate submarine landslide of Vulcano Island in 1988. Tinti and Bortolucci landslides for potential tsunamis hazard assessment. (2000) used 1D and 2D shallow-water wave models to Few reports and studies about local submarine landslide- analyzeenergytransmissionfroma submarinelandslideto generated tsunamis have been done in China, though a water body. Rahiman et al. (2007) established submarine local submarine landslide-generated tsunamis may pos- landslide-generated surge source model and earthquake- sibly occur. In November 1991, a submarine landslide generated tsunami model for numerical simulation of occurred during the preliminary pile sinking process of the 200,000 ton-scale crude oil terminal project of China * Correspondence: bolinhuang@aliyun.com Sinopec at Aoshan, Xingzhong, having caused collapse of Wuhan Center of China Geological Survey, Guanggu Road 69#, Wuhan City, many pile foundations and generated a 2-3 m tsunami China (Hu and Ye 2006). Chen et al. (2007) analyzed tsunami Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © 2014 Sun and Huang; licensee Springer. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 2 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 hazards in China based on physical occurrence conditions in this area may cause profound impact and damages. of tsunamis, he believed that major tsunamis in south-east Based on data from many marine geological surveys coastal areas of China is possibly in the south, for ex- (Marine Geological Survey Bureau of the Ministry of Geol- ample, violent earthquakes west to the Philippines, volca- ogy and Mineral Resources, China 1993; Sun et al. 2008), noes at Sunda Straits of Indonesia and large submarine this paper studies the characteristics of submarine landslides landslides in tsunamis in South China Sea. Geological in NSCS, did numerical calculations of possible tsunamis to survey from 1990s showed that there were many large be generated by the landslides, and analyzed the tsunami landslides in NSCS (Marine Geological Survey Bureau hazards that may be caused by submarine landslide. of the Ministry of Geology and Mineral Resources, China 1993). Fen et al. (1994) discovered a wide range Geological setting of submarine landslide at the outer continental shelf Many submarine landslides in NSCS are located at transi- and upper continental slope of NSCS, at the depth of tional belts between continental shelves and deepwater con- about 180-650 m. Yang et al. (2011) described, in details, tinental slopes, with the water depth of about 200-2000 m, the types and features of geological disasters in the most of which are at the water depth of 500-1500 m. The deepwater area to south-east Hainan in South China shallow-water area is the north continental shelf of South Sea. Sun et al. (2008) described the geometrical shapes China Sea at Zhujiangkou Basin (Figure 1). Due to struc- and deforming characteristics of Baiyun Landslide, a tural difference during formation of the continental shelf, large submarine landslide discovered in NSCS, by using up-and-down movements and sediment sources, water the multi-beam water depth strategy and 3D seismic depth at the outer bend of the continental shelf ranges be- data. Sun (2011) had deep research on the forming tween 145-379 m. Beyond the slope bend, there is a sharp mechanism of geological disasters in the deepwater con- continent slope with a gradient of more than ten times that tinental slopeareaofNSCS; one of important inclusion of the continental shelf. In tectonic side, the deepwater area is that the submarine landslide in NSCS is relative to can be also classified into Zhujiangkou Basin, and most hydrocarbon. Liu (2010) analyzed, by taking the north- at Baiyun Depression Region. The depression in this area ernareaofasanexample,the impact of high pore pres- covers over 20,000 km ; it is the greatest depression with sure and water precipitation resulted from natural gas the thickest sediment in Zhujiangkou Basin. hydrate decomposition on submarine landslides. Through the analysis of data from deepwater area dril- It can be seen from the foregoing studies that there are ling, tracing and interpretation of many seismic reflection landslides in the NSCS which areunstablesubmarineareas profiles at Zhujiangkou Basin where Baiyun Depression is of South China Sea and origins of potential local tsunamis. located (Liu 2010), and comparison of adjacent strata it Meanwhile, Baiyun Depression is located at Zhujiangkou was observedthat eight sets of seismic sequences have Basin, an area with relatively mature development of hydro- been developed in the deepwater area of Zhujiangkou carbon in China (Jiang 2009); a submarine landslide occurs Basin, i.e. theQuaternarySystem, WanshanFormation, Figure 1 Geological background skecth map of NSCS, the black dashed frame is the location of Zhujiangkou Basin, the white box is our study area and the location of Figure 2 (Data from SRTM). Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 3 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 Yuehai Formation, Hanjiang Formation, Zhujiang Forma- stratum pressure of Baiyun Depression is normal at the tion, Enping Formation and Wenchang Formation strata shallow-water area, and weak in the deepwater area; how- from up to down (Sun et al. 2008). In Wenchang Forma- ever, wide range of diapir structure in the Depression sug- tion and Enping Formation, lacustrine deposit and large gests that the area might have experienced three times of lake basin deposit are developed, respectively, mainly overpressure accumulations and release in the late period comprising source rocks. In Zhuhai Formation, large ner- (Shi et al. 2006), creating pressure condition for develop- itic shelf deposit is developed. In Zhujiang Formation and ment of submarine landslides. Hanjiang Formation, continental slope deepwater deposit ZhujiangRiver provides Zhujiangkou Basin with plenty is developed (Sun 2011). of sediment sources, with depositing rate up to 160 cm/ka, Baiyun Depression experienced three evolving forma- creating geological condition for gravity-triggered land- tion stages, which are rift stage, thermal subsidence slides (Sun 2011). Moreover, this region is intensive sub- stage and neotectonic stage in the Cenozoic (Gong and marine geological exploration area, both drilling and the Li 1997; Zhu et al. 2007), and formed “three uplifts and decomposition of hydrocarbon may induce landslides two depressions”, featuring great terrain fluctuations and (Locat and Lee 2002; Fang and Zhang 2010). sharp gradients. Baiyun Depression was preliminarily formed at the rift stage. At the thermal subsidence stage, Submarine landslide descriptions major block of Baiyun Depression sank fast and greatly; Due to geological structure, landform and complex sub- the ancient Zhujiang Delta moved to deposit in the depres- marine dynamic conditions, Baiyun Depression in NSCS sion, providing plenty of sediment sources (MiL and Shen has well developed landslide mass, sliding sand slope, 2008). At the neotectonic stage, structural sedimentation large erosion gullies, submarine scarps and other un- velocity and scale, as well as depositing rate and scale are stable landforms; it is an area with rather unstable sub- in succeeded development; and many late faults were de- marine engineering geological conditions in NSCS. veloped at Baiyun Depression and its surrounding area due According to oceanic geotechnical surveys (Marine Geo- to NWW subduction of Philippine plate, having created logical Survey Bureau of the Ministry of Geology and structural conditions for development of submarine land- Mineral Resources, China 1993; Sun et al. 2008), Baiyun slides (Sun et al. 2005). Through study on pressure evolu- Depression has eleven submarine landslides with differ- tion of Baiyun Depression strata, it is found that the ent scales, whose codes are S1 ~ S11 (Figure 2). Except for Figure 2 Distribution diagram of submarine landslides (After Fen et al., 1994 and Sun, 2011). S1-S11 are landslide codes; carmine lines refer to location or area of landslides; yellow lines refer to profile lines. Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 4 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 Table 1 Description of submarine landslide belts (After Fen et al., 1994 and Sun, 2011) Code Depth Length Width Thickness Area Volume Gradient 2 9 3 (m) (km) (km) (m) (km ) (×10 m ) (°) S1 190-250 55 3 25-50 110 4 2-4 S2 210-230 75 2 10-20 150 2.2 2-3 S3 420 55 5 10-20 110 1.6 2-3 S4 500-1800 50 16 50-200 400 50 3-4 S5 150-200 60 15 20-50 105 3.7 1 S6-S9 150-370 5-10 3-4 20-50 1-9 S10 150-250 52 1-10 10-20 28 0.43 1 S11 2500 150 17.5 50 10000 500 1-3 landslide S4 and S11, other landslides are in SW zonal dis- sliding. Landslide S8 and S9 have back scarps, with rock- tribution along the outer bend line of the continental shelf, soil collapse. Landslide S10 has imminent sliding cliff, col- the ancient coastal line and the front scarp of the ancient lapsed valley, hilly landslide mass and arc-shaped sliding delta. Specific locations, the water depth range and scales of surface, featuring multiphase sliding. The largest depth these landslides are shown in Table 1. All these landslides of Landslide S4 is 200 m, and the largest volume is 9 3 are discovered by combining 2D and 3D seismic data and 50 × 10 m (Table 1). Landslide S4 was developed from multi-beam waterdepth measurement (Marine Geological the outer bend of continental shelf, with development Survey Bureau of the Ministry of Geology and Mineral Re- depth and slope obviously larger than Landslides S1-S3 sources, China 1993; Sun et al. 2008). and S5-S10 (Figure 2). Meanwhile, S4 has obvious move- Features of submarine landslides can be clearly identi- ment of hilly blocks and multiple landslide benches; it is fied by using side sonar, depth measurement, sub-bottom obviously active. Landslide S11 is a giant landslide, and is profiling and single-channel seismograph. For example, now formally named as Baiyun Landslide. Baiyun Land- 9 3 features of back scarp (scarp, sharp slope or cliff), landslide slide is in huge volume of 500 × 10 m and currently the valley or collapsed valley (depression or gully), landslide largest landslide discovered in South China Sea. The mass (hilly block), landslide bench and sliding surfaces can multiphase activity of Baiyun Landslide and associa- be known by using the foregoing geophysical prospecting tions between its deformation and gas or fluid move- methods. Figure 3 shows the landslide profiles of S1-S5 and ment have been detected by using seismic wave, but S10, and schematizes some landslide features. Landslide the inducing mechanism of Baiyun Landslide is still S1 zone has prominent landslide scarp, collapsed valley under research (Li et al. 2014a, 2014b). and benches, with development of reverse benches, indi- This paper focuses on prediction of tsunami disasters gen- cating that the landslide is at the preliminary stage and erated by submarine landslides, and thus will not give too will continue the development. Landslides S2 and S3 have much description of the submarine landslide characteristics. visiblelandslidebackscarps, depressions, landslide benches For detail features and stability of the submarine landslides and bedding flexure, indicating that Landslide S2 and S3 in Baiyun Depression, please refer to relevant special docu- are active landslides, and will continue slide along the ments (Fen et al. 1994; Sun et al. 2008; Sun 2011; Liu 2010). slopes. Landslide S5 has block collapses at the east and west ends, back scarp and layered landslide in the middle. Modeling of potentially induced tsunamis Landslide S6 and S7 are layered landslides, with hilly de- Since initial investigation of submarine landslides by posits at the bottom of the slopes, featuring multiphase United States Geological Survey in early 1990s, studies Figure 3 Sectional view of some landslides. Profile lines correspond to yellow lines in Figure 3. Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 5 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 Table 2 Input/Output parameters of Landslide S4 in TOPICS Input parameters about S4 Output parameters about original tsunamis Barycenter initial depth 1,350 m initial acceleration 0.18 m/s Mean incline angle 3.5° Tsunami wavelength 128,716.5 m Initial length 50,000 m Max.Froude number 1.74 Initial maximum thickness 62.5 m trough amplitude −13.6 m Initial maximum width 16,000 m peak amplitude 3.67 m Bulk density 1,900 kg/m Tsunami source periods 18.6 min about submarine landslides and tsunami have been con- the sliding block moves on a slope with a gradient of θ. tinuously deepened (Prior 1984; Ward 2001; Okal 2003; Based on moment equilibrium plus gravity, hydraulic drag Ward and Day 2003; Masson et al. 2006; Uriten et al. and buoyancy, they mathematically described the move- 2009; Vanneste et al. 2011; Sue et al. 2011). In this paper, ment and initial surge field of the rigid body, formed a achievements of Grilli and Watts (2005), Enet et al. (2003) submarine landslide-generated surge source model and and Enet & Grilli (2007) relating to submarine landslide- wrote it into the TOPICS module of Geowave. In this generated tsunamis are used as reference. The rigid body paper the submarine landslide-generated surge model in sliding model established by Grilli and Watts (2005) is a TOPICS is employed to predict the initial surge source symmetrical semi-elliptical sliding block, extending for a generated by movement of Landslide S4, and Boussinesq length of B along its long axis; the greatest thickness is T; equation FUNWAVE module of Geowave is utilized to Figure 4 Instant sea amplitude diagram, indicating instant sea wave amplitudes at different time points to reflect conditions of a tsunami on the sea surface at corresponding time point. Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 6 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 calculate spreading and run-up of surge waves (Applied Zhujiangkou and some islands near the continent. The Fluids Engineering Inc and University of Delaware, U.S.A bathymetric and topographic data is SRTM data from 2008). NASA. The submarine translation slide model of TOPICS It is very expensive and unnecessary to evaluate the is used to calculate initial tsunami source. For this transla- tsunami hazards for all submarine landslides in current tion slide model, the model is a tsunami source model situation; moreover, considering the research purposes established by Grilli and Watts et al. with advanced bound- of the paper, this research only selects a large and ary element method based on full non-linear potential flow strongly active landslide for the prediction of tsunami equations. This model is later extended and experimentally hazards. Landslide S11 is the largest landslide in this validated by Enet et al. (2003) and Enet & Grilli (2007). The area but has obvious multi-phase slide characteristics, domain formed a 1,62 × 1,685 computational network with low possibility of inducing the entire slide only in a comprising many discrete 400 m × 400 m grid cells, with phase. However, due to unclear inducing mechanism, it each time step of 0.58 s and totally 26,001 computing is difficult to divide its sliding phases and potential slid- steps, about 16,000 s or 4.5 h. ing areas. Landslide S4 is selected for this prediction for Table 2 shows the parameters of S4 input in TOPICS the following reasons: 1) Landslide S4 has the second lar- and relevant characteristic indicators of the output initial gest volume, and the biggest slope angle; 2) Landslide S4 is tsunami source. located within Baiyun Depression, featuring strong activity; Through calculation, conditions of tsunami generated 3) Landslide S4 lies in the region of NSCS which is a key by Landslide S4 were predicted. After sliding of Land- target area for development of hydrocarbon in future, and slide S4, an initial surge field was formed with crest in depth exceeding 500 m is a condition for occurrence of the south and trough in the north (see output parame- natural gas and water mixture. Therefore, submarine ters in Table 2 & Figure 4). Afterwards, the tsunami Landslide S4 is taken as an example, and through calcula- started spreading. It can be seen from the instant sea di- tion of tsunami generated by movement of Landslide S4, agrams that the tsunami spread in all directions, but the possible tsunami disasters in NSCS are assessed. strongest part was the tsunami waves vertical to the slid- Based on the geological location of Landslide S4, a land- ing direction of the landslide (Figure 4, t = 25.9 min and sea computational domain (as shown in Figure 2) extending 56.6 min). Rows of water walls were formed and ad- about 672 km long and 673 km wide was established, in vanced towards the east/west direction firstly. During which key coastal cities such as Macau, Hong Kong, Shan- advancement towards the continent, waves arrived at tou and Shanwei cities in Guangdong Province were in- Dongsha Island at about the 55th min; partial waves ran cluded, so were islands such as Dongsha Islands, islands at up to 15 m. When passing by Dongsha Island, the Figure 5 Maximum amplitudes of water particles in the computational domain within 4.5 h. Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 7 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 Figure 6 Coastal run-up diagram. Areas circled indicate abnormal run-ups compared with the surrounding areas. Yellow circles indicate run-ups of 1.5-2.5 m; red circles indicate run-ups of 2.5-3.5 m; carmine circles indicate run-ups of 3.5-5.5 m; other coastal run-ups are less than 1.5 m. tsunami flowed around and formed cross tsunami waves Shangtou City. Two run-ups of 5.3 m occurred in Shanwei advancing towards the continent. This was common in City and Yezhoushan of Haifeng County under Shanwei other offshore areas (Figure 4, t = 106.3 min). When ar- City. Additionally, there were ten run-ups of 2.5-3.5 m riving at the coastal line, the first tsunami waves ran up, and eighteen run-ups of 1.5-2.5 m distributed crosswise with reflection, refractions and diffractions, forming along the coastal line (Figure 6). At other coastal lines in complex waveforms (Figure 4, t = 194.0 min). the computational domain, the tsunami ran up for about The instant sea surface diagrams reflected conditions 1m. of the tsunami on the sea surface at different time points; The abnormal run-ups were significantly dependent to the maximum amplitude diagram (Figure 5) reflected the submarine canyons. It can be seen from Figure 7 that, maximum amplitudes of the calculation points in the seabed topography may impact nearshore surge height computational domain within 4.5 h. Though 4.5 h was and costal run-ups. In nearshore area, the surge height long, as the wave velocity was positively correlated to the in seabed ridge is higher than that in other places. While water depth, the tsunami waves could not reach all along near the coast, the run-ups at both sides of submarine can- the coastal line in 4.5 h. In Figure 6, tsunami wavefronts yons are obviously higher those in other areas (Figure 7). waves reached the coastal line in areas except for the east All these indicate that submarine canyons near the coast area of Shantou. The maximum amplitude diagram clearly can focus wave energy (Wijetunge 2009; Didenkulova and shows the general route of tsunami waves, particularly the Pelinovsky 2010). spreading path of the tsunami waves after wave breaking What did these run-ups mean to the coastal lines? Let’s offshore. The tsunami generated at the water depth of take Shanwei City as an example. In Shanwei City, there 1,350 m encountered reduction of water depth when are seaside scenic spots, many factories, warehouses and spreading towards the continent, forming hydraulic docks, but no breakwaters; some waterside roads are no jumps. Therefore, maximum amplitudes of 17.5 m in the computational domain occurred on Dongsha Islands, which is the first exposure of land in the propagating process. As the tsunami propagated for nearly 300 km long to reach the coast, great energy of the tsunami was consumed. At the water depth of about 100 m, the max- imum tsunami wave was about 6 m; at the water depth of about 50 m, the maximum tsunami wave was about 3 m. Near the coastal line, the reduction of water depth leads to the shoaling effect of waves, getting higher and moving slower. When arriving at the continent, the tsunami waves formed run-ups. The maximum run-up of 17.5 m caused by Landslide S4-generated tsunami occurred not in Figure 6 but on Dongsha Island in Figure 5. The max- imum inundation lengths in the calculating area were about 1600 m located in Shanwei, 150 m in Hong Kong and 200 m in Shantou. In Figure 6, run-ups at the Figure 7 Enlarged map of part of Figure 6, located between coastal line were shown amplified. There were four run- Hong Kong and Shanwei. Blue lines were sounding lines. up areas of 3.5-5.5 m, lying in the east and west sides of Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 8 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 Figure 8 The tsunami travel time contour line map, the unit of contour lines are minute. Figure 9 Warning division diagram: blue for area subject to blue warning area, yellow for area subject to yellow warning area, orange for area subject to orange warning area, red for area subject to red warning area. Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 9 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 Figure 10 Hydrograph of typical points in the potential tsunami. The locations of G1 ~ G3 can be seen in Figure 9., and G3 is on the coastal line of Dapeng Bay. more than 5 m high. If some tsunami like tsunami in- follows: blue warning area for 0-1 m, yellow warning area duced to Landslide S4 occurs in NSCS, particularly in for 1-2 m, orange warning area for 2-3 m and red warning the 32 run-up splace mentioned above, the coastal pro- area for above 3 m. Distribution of the warning areas is duction and living quarters will suffer greatly or even a showninFigure8.As the computational domain is lim- catastrophe. ited, a Landslide S4-generated tsunami has impact on Also, the tsunami travel time (TTT) is one of most im- more than the computational domain, and thus the portant information related to early-warning and evacu- warning area is wider than that covered in prediction. ation plans. The phases of celerity are relative to the Meanwhile, in a warning and emergency response plan, bathymetry (Le Méhauté 1976), so TTT map (Figure 8) is it shall be considered that there might be more than one distributed like arch shape. As the coastal line is long, wave crest attacks due to flow disturbance by islands. time for tsunami waves to arrive differs greatly. For ex- From the three typical hydrographs shown in Figure 10, it ample, after occurrence of the landslide, it took 75 min for can be known that there were two violent attacks at off- tsunami waves to arrive at Dongsha Island, about 145 min shore of Hong Kong (the second attack higher than the to arrive at off-island of Hong Kong, about 160 min to ar- first attack). The coastal line of Dapeng Bay suffered mul- rive at Shangwei City, 200 min to arrive at Shantou City tiple waves’ attacks that lasted for more than 1.5 hours and 240 min to arrive at Macau. If wave buoys are set at with wave height of about 0.8 m. Multiple attacks and depth of 200 m, early-warning will be emitted when tsu- long duration of a tsunami shall be emphasized in emer- nami passing the buoy, thus valuable time of 1 hour will gency response and warning. be left for the evacuation. This tsunamis hazard assessment can be compared with According to the Contingency Plan against Disasters 1953 Suva tsunami of Fiji, some underwater landslide- of Storm Surges, Sea Waves, Tsunamis and Sea Ice (State generated tsunamis in the Padang region, Indonesia, and Oceanic Administration of China 2009), the Landslide the Grand Bank tsunami of North American coastline. S4-generated tsunamis in the computational domain can Based on Rahiman et al.’s (2007) analysis, a simulation be rated for warning (Figure 9). According to this Contin- using a 60 million cubic metre submarine landslide lo- gency Plan, the tsunami influence region can be rated as cated at the head of the Suva Canyon, 4 km to the Table 3 The relatived data of submarine landslides and its tsunamis Name Water depth Landslide volume Initial wave peak Initial wave trough Max. run-up 9 3 S4 landslide 1350 m 50 × 10 m 3.67 m −13.6 m 5.5 m 9 3 Suva landslide 125 m 0.05 × 10 m 11 m −40.8 m 10 m 9 3 Grand Bank 10,000 m 200 × 10 m (Max.) 3-8 m 13 m 9 3 Pandang landslides 1300 m 0.7 × 10 m 2.0 — 3.6 m 9 3 1300 m 0.5 × 10 m 2.1 — 3.6 m 9 3 1300 m 0.1 × 10 m 0.2 —— Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 10 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 WSW of Suva City reproduces the observed run-up. Islands). General wave height of tsunami attacks at Based on Sascha et al.’s (2010) study, some landslides the coastal line is less than 1.5 m, with 32 abnormal 70 km off Padang (Western Sumatra, Indonesia) may high run-ups. The maximum run-up at the continental generate tsunamis, and the yielding maximum run-up is coastal line is 5.3 m and the maximum inundation is about 3 m, while Padang with over 750,000 inhabitants 1600 m, occurring at Shanwei City. exhibits high tsunami vulnerability due to its very low 4) Tsunami warning areas are divided according to the elevation. On November 18th, 1929, in North American tsunami contingency plan of China. As tsunami coastline, a submarine landslide occurred near the propagation correlates with water depth, time for Grand Banks by a large earthquake with Mw = 7.2 mo- the tsunami to reach different points differs greatly, ment magnitude causing 28 fatalities (Fine et al. 2005). providing a time difference for warning; for warning Some main relatived analysis data of The S4 landslide, and contingency, multiple wave attacks and long Suva landslide, Pandang landslides and its tsunamis are wave duration shall be considered. listed in Table 3. The comparison shows that the results of Prediction of Landslide S4-generated tsunamis tsunami generated by S4 landslide are in the middle of the suggests that local tsunami hazard might occur in examples. Some landslide with smaller volume has bigger China. However, as rare studies have been done on tsunami than S4. Tsunami generated by much bigger land- local submarine landslide-generated tsunamis in slide is not such bigger than the tsunami generated by S4 China, the government and researchers lack of landslide. The critical parameters for tsunami generation estimations about damages brought by a submarine are the landslide volume and water depth. landslide-generated tsunami. Therefore, more efforts shall be made to investigate potential damages Findings caused by a submarine landslide, particularly the Northern South China Sea, hot spot for oil and gas re- submarine landslides at Baiyun Depression in NSCS. search and production, is a critical area for China. Some Additionally, submarine landslide-generated significant submarine landslides are briefly described. tsunamis shall be made widely known, so as to avoid Tsunamis modelling are tested for some landslides damages technically and socially. sources in order to point out areas at risk. The forma- Competing interests tion, spreading and run-up of tsunamis generated by The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Landslide S4 within 4.5 h in a sea area of 672 × 673 km are predicted by using the GEO-WAVE Boussinesq Authors’ contributions SY and HB choosed the research direction of tsunami generated by model. As calculated, the greatest height of tsunami gen- submarine landslide, collected informations of submarine landslides around erated by Landslide S4 is 17.5 m, and the greatest run- Baiyun depression, NSCS, carried out the numerical simulation study on up formed on the coastal line is 5.3 m. This shows that tsunami generated by landslide, and drafted the manuscript. Both authors read and approved the final manuscript. numerous places of high vulnerability along seashore are potentially prone to significant tsunami disasters. Acknowledgements This study has been funded by the National Marine Public Scientific Research Conclusions (ID: 201005005) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (project ID: 41372321). We would like to extend our thanks to Dr. Hu Guanghai and Based on distribution of submarine landslides near Baiyun Senior Engineer Song Yupeng from the First Institute of Oceanography, SOA Depression of NSCS and prediction of tsunamis generated for their provision of large quantities of useful data and information. Finally, by submarine Landslide S4, the following conclusions are the authors want to thank two anonymous reviewers, Prof. Wang Fawu, Dr. Yang Hufeng and Prof. Patrick Wassmer for their helpful suggestion. drawn with suggestions proposed: This MS evaluates the potentiality for submarine landslides to induce tsunamis in Northern South China Sea. Northern South China Sea, hot spot for oil and gas 1) The NSCS has mature development of hydrocarbon; research and production, is a critical area for China. Some significant submarine landslides are briefly described and the authors investigate the potential for Baiyun Depression in this area has developed eleven landslide-induced tsunamis. The local governments along the shoreline and landslides of different scales. Movement of landslides offshore economics are not aware of the threat to this area related to large in this area may cause profound impact and submarine landslides and associate tsunamis. Tsunamis modelling are tested for some landslides sources in order to point out areas at risk. This approach shows damages. that numerous places of high vulnerability along seashore are potentially prone 2) Suppose submarine Landslide S4 occurs. The to significant tsunami disasters. This research, focused on potential threat linked TOPICS submarine landslide-generated surge to local tsunami sources, is in its early stage in China but it is of capital importance for the local people, local government and offshore economics. model is used to establish a 672 × 673 km submarine This MS also reminds many researchers and research institutions that one landslide-generated tsunami model, so as to predict should not ignore local sources for tsunami generation in China. formation, spreading and run-ups within 4.5 h of a Author details tsunami. The First Institute of Oceanography, SOA. Xianxialing Road 6#, Laoshan 3) Landslide S4 may generate a tsunami with the District, Qingdao City, China. Wuhan Center of China Geological Survey, maximum height of 17.5 m (occurring on Dongsha Guanggu Road 69#, Wuhan City, China. Yongfu and Bolin Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014, 1:7 Page 11 of 11 http://www.geoenvironmental-disasters.com/content/1/1/7 Received: 14 August 2014 Accepted: 20 October 2014 Prior DB (1984) Subaqueous landslides. Proceedings of the IV International Symposium on Landslides, Toronto 1:179–196 Rahiman IHT, Pettinga JR, Watts P (2007) The source mechanism and numerical modeling of the 1953 Suva tsunami, Fiji. Mar Geol 237:55–70 Sascha B, Andrey YB, Christoph G, Stefan L (2010) Hazard assessment of References underwater landslide-generated tsunamis: a case study in the Padang region, Applied Fluids Engineering Inc, University of Delaware, U.S.A (2008) Geowave 1.1 Indonesia. Nat Hazards 53:205–218 Tutorial Shi W, Chen H, Chen C (2006) Modeling of pressure evolution and Chen Y, Chen Q, Zhang W (2007) Tsunami disaster in China. Journal of Natural hydrocarbon migration in the Baiyun Depression, Pearl River mouth Disasters 16(2):1–6 basin, China. Earth Science-Journal of China University of Geosciences Didenkulova I, Pelinovsky E (2010) Runup of tsunami waves in U-shaped bays. 31(2):229–336 Pure Appl Geophys 168:1239–1249 State Oceanic Administration of China (2009) Contingency Plan against Disasters Enet F, Grilli ST and Watts P (2003) Laboratory Experiments for Tsunamis of Storm Surges, Sea Waves, Tsunamis and Sea Ice, NO.685 Generated by Underwater Landslides: Comparison with Numerical Modeling. th Sue LP, Nokes RI, Davidson MJ (2011) Tsunami generation by submarine Proceeding of the 13 International Offshore and Polar Engineering landslides: comparison of physical and numerical models. Environ Fluid Mech Conference: 372–379 11:133–165 Enet F, Grilli ST (2007) Experimental study of tsunami generation by three-dimensional Sun Y (2011) The Mechanism and Prediction of Deepwater Geohazard in the rigid underwater landslides. J Waterw Port Coastal Ocean Eng 133:442–454 Northern of South China Sea, The thesis for Ph.D. Institute of Oceanology, Fang C, Zhang W (2010) Mechanism and analysis of landslide on the seabed due Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao to the decomposition of gas hydrate. Chinese Journal of Studia Marina Sinica Sun Y, Wu S, Wang Z, Li Q, Wang X, Dong D, Liu F (2008) The geometry and 50:149–156 deformation characteristics of Baiyun submarine landslide. Mar Geol Quat Fen W, Shi Y, Chen L (1994) Research for seafloor landslide stability on the outer Geol 6:69–77 continental shelf and the upper continental slope in the northern south Sun Z, Pang X, Zhong Z (2005) Dynamics of tertiary tectonic evolution of the China Sea. Mar Geol Quat Geol 14(2):81–94 Baiyun Sag in the Pearl River mouth basin. Chinese Journal of Earth Science Fine IV, Rabinovich AB, Bornhold BD, Thomson RE, Kulikov EA (2005) The Grand Frontiers 12(4):489–498 Banks landslide-generated tsunami of November 18, 1929: prelaminary Tinti S, Bortolucci E (2000) Energy of water waves induced by submarine analysis and numerical modeling. Mar Geol 215:45–57 landslides. Pure Appl Geophys 157:281–318 Fuchs H, Heller V, Hager WH (2010) Impulse wave run-over: experimental benchmark Tinti S, Bortolucci E, Armigliato A (1999) Numerical simulation of the study for numerical modeling. Exp Fluids 49:985–1004 landslide-induced tsunami of 1988 on Vulcano Island, Italy. Bull Gong Z, Li S (1997) Preliminary Analysis of Basins and Petroleum Accumulation in Volcanol 61:121–137 the Northern Continental Margin Basin of South China Sea. Chinese Science Uriten B, Twichell D, Lynett P, Geist E, Chaytor J, Lee H, Buczkowski B, Flores C Press, Beijing (2009) Regional Assessment of Tsunami Potential in the Gulf of Mexico – Grilli ST, Watts P (2005) Tsunami generation by submarine mass failure. Part I: Report to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. Geological modeling, experimental validation, and sensitivity analysis. J Water Port Survey, U.S Coastal Ocean Eng 131:283–297 Vanneste M, Forsberg CF, Glimsdal S, Harbitz CB, Issler D, Kvalstad TJ, Løvholt F, Hu T, Ye Y (2006) Prediction models of landslide tsunami and its application. Nadim F (2011) Submarine Landslides and their Consequences: What do we Chinese Journal of Marine Sciences 24(3):21–30 know, what can we do? Proceedings of the second World Landslide Forum, ITDB/WLD (2007) Integrated Tsunami Database for the World Ocean, Version 6.51 Rome of February 20, 2007. CD-ROM, Tsunami Laboratory, ICMMG SD RAS, Ward SN (2001) Landslide tsunami. J Geophys Res 106(6):11201–11215 Novosibirsk Ward SN, Day S (2003) Ritter Island Volcano-lateral collapse and the tsunami of Jiang X (2009) Forming conditions and genetic analysis of natural gas hydrate. 1888. Geophys J Int 154:891-9-2 Coal Geology of China 21(12):07–11 Wijetunge JJ (2009) Field measurements and numerical simulations of the Le Méhauté B (1976) An Introduction to Hydrodynamics and Water Waves. 2004 tsunami impact on the east coast of Sri Lanka. Pure Appl Springer, New York Geophys 16:593–622 Levin B, Nosov M (2009) Physics of Tsunamis. Springer, Netherlands 1–29 Yang W, Zhang Y, Li B (2011) Types and characteristics of deepwater Li W, Wu S, Wang X, Zhao F, Wang D, Mi L, Li Q (2014a) Baiyun slide and its geologic hazard in Qiongdongnan of the South China Sea. Offshore Oil relation to fluid migration in the northern slope of Southern China Sea. 31(1):1–7 Submarine Mass Movements and Their Consequences 37:105–115 Zhu W, Zhang G, Yang S (2007) Gas Geology in the Northern Continental Liu F (2012) A Safety evaluation for Submarine Slope Instability of the Northern Margin Basin of South China Sea. Chinese Petroleum Industry Press, South China Sea Due to Gas Hydrate Dissociation, The thesis for Ph.D. Beijing Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao Locat J, Lee HJ (2002) Submarine landslide: advances and challenges. Canada doi:10.1186/s40677-014-0007-0 Geotechnology Journal 39(1):193–212 Cite this article as: Yongfu and Bolin: A Potential Tsunami impact Marine Geological Survey Bureau of the Ministry of Geology and Mineral assessment of submarine landslide at Baiyun Depression in Northern Resources, China (1993) Marine Engineering Geology Report of Zhunjiangkou South China Sea. Geoenvironmental Disasters 2014 1:7. Basin. South China Sea Masson DG, Harbitz CB, Wynn RB, Pedersen G, LØvholt F (2006) Submarine landslides: processes, triggers and hazard prediction. Phil Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 364:2009–2039 Submit your manuscript to a MiL ZG, Shen H (2008) Eocene-lower oligocene sedimentation characteristics of journal and benefi t from: Baiyun sag in the deep water area of Pearl River mouth basin. Acta PetroleiSinica 29(1):29–33 7 Convenient online submission Li W, Shiguo W, Wang X, Zhao F, Wang D, LijunMi QL (2014b) Baiyun Slide 7 Rigorous peer review and its relation to fluid migration in the Northen slope of Southern China Sea. Adances in Natural and Technological Hazard Research 7 Immediate publication on acceptance 37:105–113 7 Open access: articles freely available online Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) (2005) Offshore geohazards[R]. Summary 7 High visibility within the fi eld report for research institution-based strategic project 2002-2005, NGI report 7 Retaining the copyright to your article No.20021023-2 Okal EA (2003) T waves from the 1998 Papua New Guinea earthquake and its aftershocks: timing the tsunamigenic slump. Pure Appl Geophys Submit your next manuscript at 7 springeropen.com 160:1843–1863

Journal

Geoenvironmental DisastersSpringer Journals

Published: Dec 18, 2014

There are no references for this article.