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[The need to of en transform raw data is discussed and the logarithmic transformation is introduced in some detail. It is emphasised that the slope of a graph of the original data says nothing about the growth rate of the variable, since it is only from the slope of the graph of the logarithms that such information can be obtained. These ideas are illustrated by constructing alternative measures of UK inflation. Other transformations are discussed, including the famous Phillips curve, linking inflation to the inverse of the unemployment rate. Moving averages are introduced as a way of smoothing data and such ideas are extended to decomposing a time series, illustrated by decomposing retail sales into its trend, seasonal and irregular components as a prelude to seasonally adjusting the series.]
Published: Oct 26, 2015
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