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Applying Time-series Cross Correlation Analysis to Examine the Nexus between Firearms and Homicide in Hong Kong

Applying Time-series Cross Correlation Analysis to Examine the Nexus between Firearms and... This paper applied time series analysis to examine the nexus between firearm robberies and homicide in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HK). Recent years have seen a reduction in firearm related offences in HK compared to Britain. For instance, only three cases of firearm robbery in 2004 in HK (0.1% of all robbery; 2,237 incidents) involved genuine firearms, compared to 4,117 firearm robbery incidents (4% of all robbery) in Britain in the same year. This paper established a cross-correlation coefficient of 0.50 at lag 0 for the annual rate of two serious crimes, genuine firearm robbery and homicide, after identifying an ARMA(1,0) model from each time series (1972–2002). The results suggest that the prevalence of firearm robbery is moderately associated with the prevalence of homicide in HK. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Asian Journal of Criminology Springer Journals

Applying Time-series Cross Correlation Analysis to Examine the Nexus between Firearms and Homicide in Hong Kong

Lee, King
Asian Journal of Criminology , Volume 4 (1) – Jun 13, 2008
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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 by Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
Subject
Energy; Criminology and Criminal Justice, general; Social Sciences, general; Political Science; Law, general
ISSN
1871-0131
eISSN
1871-014X
DOI
10.1007/s11417-008-9053-4
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This paper applied time series analysis to examine the nexus between firearm robberies and homicide in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HK). Recent years have seen a reduction in firearm related offences in HK compared to Britain. For instance, only three cases of firearm robbery in 2004 in HK (0.1% of all robbery; 2,237 incidents) involved genuine firearms, compared to 4,117 firearm robbery incidents (4% of all robbery) in Britain in the same year. This paper established a cross-correlation coefficient of 0.50 at lag 0 for the annual rate of two serious crimes, genuine firearm robbery and homicide, after identifying an ARMA(1,0) model from each time series (1972–2002). The results suggest that the prevalence of firearm robbery is moderately associated with the prevalence of homicide in HK.

Journal

Asian Journal of Criminology – Springer Journals

Published: Jun 13, 2008

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