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Current Trends in Philosophy of ScienceEnvironmental Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Current Trends in Philosophy of Science: Environmental Decision-Making Under Uncertainty [Extreme weather events like hurricanes occur rarely, but when they occur, they cause immense damage. How should decision-makers, both public and private, make decisions about such events? Such decisions face significant and often poorly understood uncertainty. We rework the so-called “confidence approach” to tackle decision-making under severe uncertainty with multiple models, and we illustrate the approach with the case study of insurance pricing using hurricane models. The confidence approach has important consequences for this case and offers a powerful framework for a wide class of problems.] http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png

Current Trends in Philosophy of ScienceEnvironmental Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Part of the Synthese Library Book Series (volume 462)
Editors: Gonzalez, Wenceslao J.
Roussos, Joe; Bradley, Richard; Frigg, Roman
Current Trends in Philosophy of Science — Jul 26, 2022
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17 pages

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Publisher
Springer International Publishing
Copyright
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022
ISBN
978-3-031-01314-0
Pages
45 –62
DOI
10.1007/978-3-031-01315-7_3
Publisher site
See Chapter on Publisher Site

Abstract

[Extreme weather events like hurricanes occur rarely, but when they occur, they cause immense damage. How should decision-makers, both public and private, make decisions about such events? Such decisions face significant and often poorly understood uncertainty. We rework the so-called “confidence approach” to tackle decision-making under severe uncertainty with multiple models, and we illustrate the approach with the case study of insurance pricing using hurricane models. The confidence approach has important consequences for this case and offers a powerful framework for a wide class of problems.]

Published: Jul 26, 2022

Keywords: Uncertainty; Confidence; Insurance pricing; Averaging; Catastrophe model; Hurricane model; Extreme weather event; Climate change

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