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Displacement trends of slow-moving landslides: Classification and forecasting

Displacement trends of slow-moving landslides: Classification and forecasting A framework is proposed to characterize and forecast the displacement trends of slow-moving landslides, defined as the reactivation stage of phenomena in rocks or fine-grained soils, with movements localized along one or several existing shear surfaces. The framework is developed based on a thorough analysis of the scientific literature and with reference to significant reported case studies for which a consistent dataset of continuous displacement measurements is available. Three distinct trends of movement are defined to characterize the kinematic behavior of the active stages of slow-moving landslides in a velocity-time plot: a linear trend-type I, which is appropriate for stationary phenomena; a convex shaped trend-type II, which is associated with rapid increases in pore water pressure due to rainfall, followed by a slow decrease in the groundwater level with time; and a concave shaped trend-type III, which denotes a non-stationary process related to the presence of new boundary conditions such as those associated with the development of a newly formed local slip surface that connects with the main existing slip surface. Within the proposed framework, a model is developed to forecast future displacements for active stages of trend-type II based on displacement measurements at the beginning of the stage. The proposed model is validated by application to two case studies. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Mountain Science Springer Journals

Displacement trends of slow-moving landslides: Classification and forecasting

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References (48)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2014 by Science Press, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
Subject
Earth Sciences; Earth Sciences, general; Geography (general); Environment, general; Ecology
ISSN
1672-6316
eISSN
1993-0321
DOI
10.1007/s11629-013-2961-5
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

A framework is proposed to characterize and forecast the displacement trends of slow-moving landslides, defined as the reactivation stage of phenomena in rocks or fine-grained soils, with movements localized along one or several existing shear surfaces. The framework is developed based on a thorough analysis of the scientific literature and with reference to significant reported case studies for which a consistent dataset of continuous displacement measurements is available. Three distinct trends of movement are defined to characterize the kinematic behavior of the active stages of slow-moving landslides in a velocity-time plot: a linear trend-type I, which is appropriate for stationary phenomena; a convex shaped trend-type II, which is associated with rapid increases in pore water pressure due to rainfall, followed by a slow decrease in the groundwater level with time; and a concave shaped trend-type III, which denotes a non-stationary process related to the presence of new boundary conditions such as those associated with the development of a newly formed local slip surface that connects with the main existing slip surface. Within the proposed framework, a model is developed to forecast future displacements for active stages of trend-type II based on displacement measurements at the beginning of the stage. The proposed model is validated by application to two case studies.

Journal

Journal of Mountain Science – Springer Journals

Published: May 15, 2014

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