Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

Forecasting inflation in Sweden

Forecasting inflation in Sweden In this paper, we make use of Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models to conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exercise for CPIF inflation, the inflation target variable at the Riksbank in Sweden. The proposed BVAR models generally outperform simple benchmark models, the BVAR model used by the Riksbank as presented in Iversen et al. (Real-time forecasting for monetary policy analysis: the case of Sveriges Riksbank, Working Paper 16/318, Sveriges riksbank, Stockhol, 2016) and professional forecasts made by the National Institute of Economic Research in Sweden. Moreover, the BVAR models proposed in the present paper have better forecasting precision than both survey forecasts and the method suggested by Faust and Wright (in: Elliott, Timmermann (eds) Handbook of forecasting, 2013). The findings in this paper might be of value to analysts, policymakers and forecasters of the inflation in Sweden (and possibly other small open economies alike). http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png "Economia Politica" Springer Journals

Forecasting inflation in Sweden

Download PDF
30 pages

Loading next page...
 
/lp/springer-journals/forecasting-inflation-in-sweden-8xGSFuRfun

References (39)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019
ISSN
1120-2890
eISSN
1973-820X
DOI
10.1007/s40888-019-00161-9
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

In this paper, we make use of Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models to conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exercise for CPIF inflation, the inflation target variable at the Riksbank in Sweden. The proposed BVAR models generally outperform simple benchmark models, the BVAR model used by the Riksbank as presented in Iversen et al. (Real-time forecasting for monetary policy analysis: the case of Sveriges Riksbank, Working Paper 16/318, Sveriges riksbank, Stockhol, 2016) and professional forecasts made by the National Institute of Economic Research in Sweden. Moreover, the BVAR models proposed in the present paper have better forecasting precision than both survey forecasts and the method suggested by Faust and Wright (in: Elliott, Timmermann (eds) Handbook of forecasting, 2013). The findings in this paper might be of value to analysts, policymakers and forecasters of the inflation in Sweden (and possibly other small open economies alike).

Journal

"Economia Politica" – Springer Journals

Published: Apr 13, 2020

There are no references for this article.