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Climate change, including increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), nitrogen deposition, and recovery from past management have led to changes in forest productivity in many parts of the world. Process-based forest models have been widely used to project productivity changes under changing environmental conditions into the future. Based on a review of published simulation results from a large number of process-based models, a synthesis of impacts of environmental change on forest productivity and carbon pools is presented. This synthesis shows that most stand-scale process-based model studies have been carried out in temperate and boreal forests, focusing mostly on monospecific forests with tree species that are relevant for forestry and on analyses of the impacts of climate change and of increasing [CO2] rather than that of other environmental drivers. Forest productivity and biomass carbon pools in these forests mainly respond positively to environmental change especially if the effects of increasing [CO2] are included. If climate change is considered in isolation 61 % of the simulations show positive responses, but 35 % of the simulations show decreasing forest productivity and declining biomass carbon pools. Boreal forests mostly become more productive and sequester more carbon under climate change and increasing [CO2], while temperate and especially Mediterranean forests show more mixed responses depending on the importance of individual environmental driving variables. It is recommended that future modeling studies should increasingly strive to incorporate mixed stands and tropical forests, and include other environmental drivers besides climate and [CO2] to better capture the totality of future changes in forest productivity and carbon pools.
Current Forestry Reports – Springer Journals
Published: Apr 10, 2015
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