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- Publisher
- Springer Journals
- Copyright
- Copyright © 2014 by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
- Subject
- Economics / Management Science; Economic Theory; History; Econometrics; Methodology and the History of Economic Thought; Game Theory/Mathematical Methods; Statistics for Business/Economics/Mathematical Finance/Insurance
- ISSN
- 1863-2505
- eISSN
- 1863-2513
- DOI
- 10.1007/s11698-014-0118-6
- Publisher site
- See Article on Publisher Site
Abstract
This paper documents the channels through which commodity price volatility can affect resource intensive industries’ investment decisions, production levels and profitability. Over the very long run, the Canadian forestry sector was not immune from the negative effects of commodity price volatility. However, the long run averages mask dynamic and asymmetric patterns in the sector’s responses to price volatility. The supply of investment funds from formal-external sources was suppressed during episodes of high and rising commodity price volatility, but insensitive to low and falling volatility. These effects weakened as the economy matured. The accumulation of reproducible and natural capital was affected by commodity price volatility through an investment supply channel that was also asymmetric, but in this case, the effect was strongest during low and falling volatility. These results show how a maturing economy with diversified investment opportunities can become increasingly immune from the negative effects of commodity price volatility.
Journal
Cliometrica – Springer Journals
Published: Oct 14, 2014