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Is a significant socio-economic structural change a pre-requisite for `initial' fertility decline in the LDCs? Evidence from Thailand based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error correction modelling approach

Is a significant socio-economic structural change a pre-requisite for `initial' fertility decline... This study is the first attempt at placing the analysis of fertility in a temporal dynamic framework in the case of a developing Asian economy such as Thailand by binding the relationship between fertility and its determinants within a cointegrated system. The analysis is based on the application of the following recently developed dynamic time series techniques: cointegration, vector error-correction modelling, variance decompositions and the impulse response functions. The results tend to indicate that in the complex dynamic interactions, the importance of the conventional `structural' hypothesis as a significant factor in bringing fertility down in the longer term cannot be denied. However, in the short to longer term, our findings, although not fully supportive of any particular hypothesis, appear to be broadly consistent more with the hypothesis emphasising the critical role played by the `ideational' or diffusion forces along with the demographic variables in ensuring `initial' fertility decline than with the conventional `structural' hypothesis emphasising a significant socio-economic structural change as a pre-condition for `initial' fertility decline. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Population Economics Springer Journals

Is a significant socio-economic structural change a pre-requisite for `initial' fertility decline in the LDCs? Evidence from Thailand based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error correction modelling approach

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References (56)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 1999 by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
Subject
Economics; Population Economics; Labor Economics; Demography; Social Policy
ISSN
0933-1433
eISSN
1432-1475
DOI
10.1007/s001480050109
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This study is the first attempt at placing the analysis of fertility in a temporal dynamic framework in the case of a developing Asian economy such as Thailand by binding the relationship between fertility and its determinants within a cointegrated system. The analysis is based on the application of the following recently developed dynamic time series techniques: cointegration, vector error-correction modelling, variance decompositions and the impulse response functions. The results tend to indicate that in the complex dynamic interactions, the importance of the conventional `structural' hypothesis as a significant factor in bringing fertility down in the longer term cannot be denied. However, in the short to longer term, our findings, although not fully supportive of any particular hypothesis, appear to be broadly consistent more with the hypothesis emphasising the critical role played by the `ideational' or diffusion forces along with the demographic variables in ensuring `initial' fertility decline than with the conventional `structural' hypothesis emphasising a significant socio-economic structural change as a pre-condition for `initial' fertility decline.

Journal

Journal of Population EconomicsSpringer Journals

Published: Aug 17, 1999

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