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Modelling Trends and Cycles in Economic Time SeriesIntroduction

Modelling Trends and Cycles in Economic Time Series: Introduction [This chapter begins with a historical perspective on the analysis of trends and cycles in economic time series, beginning with the early studies of business cycles in the late nineteenth century, before moving on to the introduction of the concept of trends in the early years of the twentieth century. Formal models of the business cycle began to emerge in the 1930s, and a range of approaches, some using mathematical developments from other scientific fields, were employed to take the models in various directions. After the ‘measurement without theory’ debate of the late 1940s and early 1950s, technical developments in time series analysis from the 1970s enabled great progress to be made in the statistical and econometric modelling of stochastic and common trends and cycles existing in observed economic data. The chapter then provides an overview of the remaining chapters of the book.] http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png

Modelling Trends and Cycles in Economic Time SeriesIntroduction

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Publisher
Springer International Publishing
Copyright
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021. 1st edition: © Terence C. Mills 2003
ISBN
978-3-030-76358-9
Pages
1 –15
DOI
10.1007/978-3-030-76359-6_1
Publisher site
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Abstract

[This chapter begins with a historical perspective on the analysis of trends and cycles in economic time series, beginning with the early studies of business cycles in the late nineteenth century, before moving on to the introduction of the concept of trends in the early years of the twentieth century. Formal models of the business cycle began to emerge in the 1930s, and a range of approaches, some using mathematical developments from other scientific fields, were employed to take the models in various directions. After the ‘measurement without theory’ debate of the late 1940s and early 1950s, technical developments in time series analysis from the 1970s enabled great progress to be made in the statistical and econometric modelling of stochastic and common trends and cycles existing in observed economic data. The chapter then provides an overview of the remaining chapters of the book.]

Published: Jul 30, 2021

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