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[Systemic wars mean many things to different analysts. Complex affairs lend themselves to a variety of interpretations—many of which may be plausible. Rather than attempting to sort out the analytical disarray, I propose to add to the interpretative cacophony (and the complexity) by stressing a feature of systemic wars that is often underappreciated. Systemic wars uniformly involve commercial/economic rivalries, have done so since the emergence of the global war format in 1494, and may well continue to do so into the immediate future. In particular, the effects of economic interdependence have been mixed. Conflicts may be constrained in some instances, but they can also be aggravated by the inherent natures of commercial exchange and industrial production. Singled out as particularly problematic in the past 500 years are tendencies toward closed markets, sectoral development similarities, access to raw materials, and perceived unfair practices—all of which have tended to promote intense conflict among major economic actors. Combinations of the four also have the potential to overwhelm any conflict constraining effects of economic interdependence. An analysis of the five global wars since the end of the fifteenth century suggests significant roles for these factors in a variety of combinations as causes for either war or war duration.]
Published: Jun 11, 2020
Keywords: Global war; Economic rivalry; Economic interdependence; Unfair practices; Leading sectors
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