Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

Unveiling pathways for the fissure among secessionists and unionists in Catalonia: identities, family language, and media influence

Unveiling pathways for the fissure among secessionists and unionists in Catalonia: identities,... ARTICLE https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z OPEN Unveiling pathways for the fissure among secessionists and unionists in Catalonia: identities, family language, and media influence 1 2 3 José M. Oller , Albert Satorra & Adolf Tobeña * ABSTRACT Catalonian secessionism acquired prominence from 2010 onwards. During the last decade secessionist parties won three regional elections and sustained Governments by tiny majorities at the Autonomous Parliament. Two illegal consultations about self- determination were called and around 2 million (38% of population census) supported secession from Spain. An “Independence Declaration” was proclaimed on 27th Oct. 2017, followed by suspension of Home Rule sanctioned by Spanish Parliament that endured till mid- 2018. The main consequence of the secessionist push was the build-up of a confrontation between two large segments of Catalan citizenry, unionists and secessionists, which was absent before. This study aims to shed light on the rise of secessionism and the appearance of a deep fissure between these communities. By building upon the complete series of data from iterated official polls (88.538 respondents, 45 surveys), the paper displays the evolving changes along the period 2006–2019 of national identity feelings (“sense of belonging”). Along that period, there were increases exceeding 15 percentage points of “only Catalan” national identity and analogous decreases of "equally Catalan and Spanish" dual national identity. The findings disclosed highly significant covariations between changing trends on national identity feelings with: (1) family/mother language, Catalan vs. Spanish; (2) following regional media versus other media. Since language/ascendancy origins and media consumption trends are closely interrelated, within Catalonia, our discussion focuses on the role played by such ethno-cultural cleavage. Further, statistical analysis for longitudinal data identified several turning points linked to singular political events that likely accentuated polarization around the issue of secession. The findings unveil evolving tracks that could help in the under- standing of a process that, in a very short time, produced a severe social division within a fully open and democratic society at the heart of Europe. 1 2 Department of Genetics, Microbiology and Statistics, University of Barcelona, Diagonal 643, 08028 Barcelona, Spain. Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona-GSE, Barcelona, Spain. Department of Psychiatry and Forensic Medicine, Institute of Neurosciences, Universitat Autònoma Barcelona, 08193-Bellaterra Campus, Cerdanyola, Barcelona, Spain. *email: adolf.tobena@uab.cat PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms 1 1234567890():,; ARTICLE PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z Introduction he surge, rapid evolution and failed culmination of the feelings (“sense of belonging”) are a main mediator of the divide recent secessionist attempt at Catalonia was a unique between secessionists and unionists (Oller et al., 2019a, 2019b): Texperiment in contemporary Western politics. It carried the first ones declare an almost exclusive emotional/affective characteristic ingredients: (1) gigantic and iterated street identity link with Catalonia, whereas unionists have various demonstrations fueled by an unrelenting and skillful activism; (2) communal affects, with a dominant double attachment with absence of a clear secessionist majority within the region; (3) Spain-Catalonia (Catspanish). The accentuation of affective fea- strong impulse and direction given by a Regional Government tures of identity around a specific political divide (accept/reject and an Autonomous Parliament openly confronting Central secession), can reproduce similar paths towards increasing ani- Powers; (4) systematic pro-secession bias by public media con- mosity and ruthless partisanship that have characterized recent trolled by Autonomous powers; (5) overwhelming social pressure political struggle at several Western societies (Von Babel and by a continuous presence of secessionist symbols everywhere; (6) Pereira, 2018). Harsh partisanship between USA democrats and successful silencing of the majoritarian non-secessionist citizenry republicans that grew through an increasingly narrow fusion throughout most of the upsurge (Barrio and Field, 2018; Elliott, between self and group identities is a prominent example of that 2018). All that arising at one of the richest and more advanced (Mason, 2018), and the contemptuous struggle that currently Spanish regions, within a democratic context at the heart of the divide Britons on the issue of remaining or leaving the EU is European Union. The upsurge was an unexpected, enduring and another one (Golec de Zavala et al., 2017; Zmigrod et al., 2018). extremely resilient mass movement (Crameri, 2014, 2015) that During deep political crises the existence of unsealed ethno- attracted global media attention (Minder, 2017; Morel, 2018), cultural cleavages is a widely known pre-requisite to trigger leaving the Spanish Government paralyzed for years and the processes of quick polarization between neighboring communities European Union perplexed (see at SI, a summary of events and (Horowitz, 2001; Esteban et al., 2012). The ethnolinguistic clea- electoral results). vage that separates the two main Catalonian communities had A plethora of interpretations (Amat, 2015, 2017; Barrio and been highlighted by Miley (2007, 2013). The first ones use Cat- Field, 2018; Barceló-Soler, 2013; Boylan, 2015; Crameri, alan language in all domains, whereas the second ones prefer 2014, 2015; Coll et al., 2018; Cuadras-Morató and Rodon, 2018; Spanish despite their knowledge of Catalan language . Using Dowling, 2018; Elliot, 2018; Griffiths et al., 2015; Minder, 2017; survey data from CEO Barometers after the four Regional elec- Morel, 2018; Serrano, 2013), tried to explain the secessionist surge tions between 2010 and 2017, Bertomeus (2018) found that at Catalonia focusing mainly on economic and socio-political Catalan-speaking citizens augmented their support to secessionist issues: a deep economic recession during the preceding years; parties, whereas Spanish-speaking ones increased their vote for irritation with malfunctioning and corruption of Spanish parties unionist parties in divergent though comparable shifts. OEC and institutions; arrogance and passivity of Spain’s central gov- Group (2017) had also showed that such tendency towards a ernment in front of a movement instigated by ambitious and stronger political polarization was rooted on the main linguistic discontent regional elites; weaknesses and inadequacies of the divide. Llaneras (2017) added socioeconomic factors to the gap European Union. These factors surely contributed in varying between unionists and secessionists. Secession appealed mostly to degrees, though they left unexplained why they had uniquely native Catalans (CEO Barometer July 2017): it was higher among combined within a single European region, to the point of trig- citizens born in Catalonia and with at least one parent born there, gering urgent demands for segregation, while similar tensions did with a maximum (75%) for those with long native ascendancy. not appear in other comparable Southern Europe regions. Among citizens coming from abroad or from other Spanish Barrio and Field (2018) proposed that the secessionist push was regions, and for those born within the region from migrant par- not simply a bottom-up process where malcontent and self- ents, secession was not attractive at all. The divide depended also organized citizens increasingly escalated demands for indepen- on incomes: secession support predominated among citizens with dence. Longitudinal findings had shown that Catalan political highest incomes and among those who said: “we live comfortably”. elites were more radical than citizens and that outbidding to win On the contrary, most people with the lowest salaries and those hegemony in the pro-secession camp probably fueled the move- disclosing “many economic difficulties” were against secession. ment (Barrio and Rodríguez-Teruel, 2017). Hence the secessionist Maza et al. (2019) multivariate analysis of voting behavior at the surge could have depended also from top-down influences arising last Regional Elections (21 Dec. 2017), confirmed the priority of from harsh competition between nationalist elites and parties to ascendancy origins to explain the results, while greatly diminish- keep a dominant position within the Region. From such per- ing the relevance of economic factors. Cuadras-Morató and Rodon spective the secessionist wave (“the procés”), was a movement (2018) obtained fully concordant results using survey and electoral nourished by local elites narrowly intermingled with the Auton- data, at two time points, and Oller et al. (2019b) as well, in a omous administration, to take advantage of the “window of parallel analysis of the longitudinal data used here. opportunity” (Griffiths et al., 2015) opened by the deep economic This ethnocultural cleavage defined a breaking line for the and political weaknesses of a Spain near bankruptcy, during division created by the secessionist campaign (Tobeña, 2017; 2008–2013 period. Barrio and Field, 2018; Elliot, 2018). The divide has not arrived at The more important consequence of the failed secession ven- the threshold of an open violent conflict, though tensions were ture was the excavation of a deep divide of Catalan society into high during autumn of 2017 and they subsist while the situation two confronted communities: secessionists and unionists . The remains on a chronic standstill. Frictions are not rare at different lack of a social majority behind the secessionist attempt opened social scenarios and keep confronted two communities who had apprehensions and frictions that had been mostly absent pre- enjoyed a long tradition of tolerant and convivial relationships viously (Amat, 2015; Barrio and Field, 2018; Elliot, 2018; Dowl- (Amat, 2015, 2017; Barrio and Field, 2018; Elliot, 2018). There ing, 2018). Close neighbors, colleagues, acquaintances and even have been worries that such a divide might lead to inter-group friends and families who had shared feelings of belonging to both clashes that would carry the ingredients that appear in societies Catalonia and Spain (in different degrees), as a part of their sheltering unsealed ethno-cultural frontiers (Esteban et al., 2012; values, are now divided on the issue of secession and must endure Horowitz, 2001; Lustick et al., 2004; Sidanius et al., 1997; Sorens, living together amid an unsolved tension (Amat, 2017; Barrio and 2005; Miley, 2007; Castano, 2008; Qvortrup, 2014; Waytz et al., Field, 2018; Coll et al., 2018; Elliott, 2018). National identity 2014). 2 PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z ARTICLE The present paper aims to shed light on enacting vectors that variable with others related to the main ethnolinguistic cleavage facilitated the division between the two main communities in that characterizes Catalonian citizenry. Specifically, we con- Catalonia. We do that by bringing extensive data of surveys sidered, for each survey, the qualitative variables Family/Mother collected from 2006 to 2019 by the official Catalan survey agency language and the binary variable Follow news on public regional (CEO Barometer). The longitudinal analyses of variations of the media (TV or radio, under control of Regional Government) or main variable, namely “sense of belonging” feelings (from “Only not, variable that we can refer hereafter as News (See at SI Catalan” to “Only Spanish” distinctive national identities, as Appendix the Detailed Survey Questions studied). defined through the five categories at the surveys), may add We were fully aware of the limits and restrictions we adopted important clues to the unsolved discussion about plausible in our analyses of an obviously multi-causal phenomenon. sources of the building of what is now a souterrain confrontation Among the ‘stories' offered by different options regarding seces- (Barrio and Field, 2018; Elliott, 2018; Maza et al., 2019; Tormos sion, citizens can ‘opt' for one of them for many reasons: some et al., 2014). We will focus first on variations of sense of belonging related to their entourage—family, friends, co-workers, even their feelings in two significant segments of Catalan citizens, those own random histories; others, from current economic hardships whose family language is Catalan vs. those whose family language or affective/ideological affinities; others from information is Spanish. This is mandatory since previous findings either from received through the media or social networks, and so on. survey data or from electoral results had established the priority Therefore, to be able to discern the causes of the changing trends of this ethnolinguistic cleavage rooted on ascendancy origins in this issue, a detailed and systematic follow-up of specific (Cuadras-Morató and Rodon, 2018; Maza et al., 2019; Miley, individuals would be necessary, an information that it is not 2007, 2013; Oller et al., 2019a, 2019b). Secondly, we will assess the available. evolving changes of sense of belonging depending on media fol- Hence, due to the nature of our data we decided to limit lowing preferences—whether the official TV and Radio controlled ourselves to study significant stochastic dependencies between by the Regional Government (broadcasting exclusively in Catalan variables: just a strictly statistical work (descriptive plus correla- language), vs. other TV and Radios, because in previous studies tional), although it is true that, in this context, high stochastic we and others had shown the importance of this variable (Garcia, associations might suggest plausible explanations of the 2013; Tobeña, 2017; Oller and Satorra, 2017; Oller et al., mechanisms that shaped the observed trends. Subsequent 2019a, 2019b). Since media and language are closely interrelated explorations of these associations would require accruing other within the region, our analysis will address an exciting issue, data and other mathematical tools. To our view, the so-called namely the language acting as a protective umbrella from pro- 'statistical causal models’ assess ‘causal' relationships only under a paganda from the other side. theoretical frame or hypothesis that are external to statistics. We Through detailed analyses of trend variations of “sense of do not pre-assume a theory, so our emphasis in this paper is to belonging” (national identity feelings), across the whole devel- exploit a rich database to unveiling significant associations that opment of the secessionist push, we wanted to explore the rele- should shed light on the plausibility of alternative theoretical vance of some “turning points” linked to recognizable induction frames or hypothesis. Other analysis could be pursued incor- events. In this way, we expected to disclose patterns of data which porating other type of data, to study the likelihood of alternative may help to discern between bottom-up vs. top-down pathways explanatory models. about the sources of the conflict. We finally foresee that our detailed, systematic and mostly descriptive/correlational statistical evidence can work as starting point to further searches looking Longitudinal changes of national identity feelings and lin- for more fully substantive explanations of this unexpected, serious guistic groups. We estimated first, the distinctive percentages of and stagnated political crises at the heart of Europe. “sense of belonging” (national identity feelings), an essential underlying variable of the phenomenon studied, in the overall population and in different family language groups, obtained Methods from survey samples, with some supplied weights if necessary. As To study the changing evolution of secessionist vs. unionist already stated the sample sizes of the 45 surveys analyzed oscil- strength among Catalonian citizenry we worked exclusively with lated between 2500 and 1500 citizens each (autumn 2017 survey data obtained by C.E.O. Barometers (the official survey agency of had only 1338 citizens), and we had a total of 88.538 respondents. the Regional Government), along the period 2006–2019. This The standard deviations of conditional distributions (sense of data was supplied in open access from March 2006 to the present belonging conditioned to family/mother language ) for samples and includes the totality of biannual/triannual systematic surveys between 2500 and 1500 for the main population segments (25% that CEO launches with high regularity. The sample sizes of of the population or more), oscillated from 2.5% to 1%. 45 surveys analyzed oscillated between 2500 and 1500 citizens We then plotted the longitudinal changes of national identity each, with the exception of autumn 2017 survey which had only feelings between 2006 and 2019 in the overall population 1338 citizens. We had thus a total of 88.538 respondents. distinguishing also by the main family/mother language groups: Our research focus (longitudinal opinion trends about the issue the Catalan-group (34.9% was the size of this linguistic group at of secession) is a multifaceted phenomenon that can be quantified the last survey, July 2019) and the Spanish-group (57.3% was its by many variables, among others by “Sense of Belonging” size, at that survey). For the sake of clarity, we decide to plot only (National Identity Feelings), “Preferences for political links with the more frequent identity feelings in each linguistic group: Spain”, “Affirmative/Negative answers on a legal referendum people who considered both languages, Spanish and Catalan, as about secession” and others. We selected “National Identity their family/mother languages (4.1% was the size of this linguistic Feelings” as our main target because it was studied in the whole group at July 2019 survey) exhibited an intermediate behavior. series of CEO surveys and does not depend on changing political We added also a smooth 95% confidence band based on a labels that may distort the results. Findings on “Preferences for generalized additive model implemented through the R package political links between Catalonia and Spain” and explicit “Sup- mgcv (Wood et al., 2016; Hastie and Tibshirani, 1990). port/Reject of secession” in a hypothetic referendum of inde- Furthermore, in the plots, we marked also historical events that pendence are briefly presented as well at Supplementary might have been relevant to understand the evolution of the Information (SI). We explored the relationship between our main studied variables along the period. These events were: the date PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms 3 ARTICLE PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z when a new Home Rule was approved (New Statute); the Notice that there were two sources of randomness: one resolution of the High Spanish Court (Tribunal Constitutional- corresponding to the sample procedure and another correspond- TC) that sanctioned 14 articles (over 223) as contrary to the ing to the political and communicative events along the period: Spanish Constitution and restricted the preamble and another 27 we used a linear model as a simple way to deal with both sources articles (June, 2010); the peak protests of the social 15M of variability, just as an approximation, introducing Time (in movement (15M Peak Protests, June 2011); the regional elections years, from 2006) to try to capture potential trends and checking of November 25, 2012 (25N); the illegal consultation about the global adequacy of this approach examining the standard independence of November 9, 2014 (9N); the regional elections of output supplied by the function lm of R package stats. We supply September 27, 2015 (27S); the illegal referendum about secession, also a graphic plot illustrating the dependence of each percentage October 1, 2017 (1 Oct) and the regional elections, December 21, (‘only Catalan’ and ‘equal Spanish than Catalan’) with respect to 2017 (21D). Time covariate, in each one of the four levels determined by both Additionally, in order to identify important change points factors. We did as well a bivariate version of these analysis, detected in the series, we used the R package ecp designed for considering both variables. Most of the results of this analysis can nonparametric multiple change point analysis of multivariate be found at SI Appendix. data (James and Matteson, 2013, 2014), which implements a Finally, also at SI, we supply a summary of relevant percentages divisive hierarchical algorithm to detect reasonable change points, of national identity feelings at specific relevant moments: the through a bisection method and a permutation test. We worked initial and final values, on the period 2006–2018, and these at 0.025 significance level and demanding at least six observa- percentages immediately before and after the regional elections at tions, from 1.75 to 2 years, between change points. The change 25th November 2012 (Table SI-6). points obtained using this approach are indicated as vertical red lines in the figures. These change points were obtained using the complete profile of national identity feelings of the groups: from 2D dynamic profile diagram. To compare the evolution of the those who self-considered Only Spanish to those who self- groups obtained considering family/mother language (Catalan diagnosed as Only Catalans, including also the class of DK/NA vs. Spanish) and whether news were followed or not through the (do not know or no answer). Hence, they are multivariate results regional public media (Regional vs. Others), we could analyze although the series showed the evolution of main profiles of each the plot series of all percentages of “Sense of belonging” for each linguistic group. one of them. These groups would be: A (family/mother language Catalan, following news in public regional media), B (family/ mother language Catalan, not following news in public regional Longitudinal changes of national identity feelings, linguistic media), C (family/mother language Spanish, following news in groups and regional public media. We studied also the evolution public regional media) and D (family/mother language Spanish, of these national identity feelings considering not only family/ not following news in public regional media); but this would mother language but also a dichotomous variable constructed have required plotting 4 × 6 = 24 series of distinctive percen- taking into account whether the news were followed or not tages of “Sense of belonging”, along the period. We present through regional public media (TV channel TV3, and radio sta- instead a synthetic two-dimensional Dynamic Profile Diagram tion Catalunya Radio). First, we plotted the evolution of national (of Sense of Belonging, in this case) through the period 2006 identity feeling ‘Only Catalan’ in the four groups of the Catalo- −2019. Essentially, it is a two dimensional (2D) Multi- nian population obtained crossing the two main categories of dimensional Scaling (MDS) representation of the abstract space Family/mother language (Catalan vs. Spanish) with the dichot- of Sense of Belonging profiles, using the Hellinger distance omous variable News (with also two levels, according to whether (Burbea and Rao, 1982). Each one of the four groups, at a the news were followed at regional public media or not). The particular time, is represented firstas a pointonthe above obtained graphics allow to compare the different evolution of mentioned (six dimensional) abstract space and then, though these groups. Secondly, we have obtained the same graphics but the MDS techniques, as a point on a 2D-plot. Since each of these with the national identity feeling ‘equal Spanish than Catalan’ in four points are not fixed, they apparently ‘move’ as Sense of the same groups as before and comparing their evolution. belonging feelings change, then we may connect them in the plot We additionally analyzed this data, as an approximation, to facilitate viewing the change along time. Therefore, the evo- through the perspective of Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA). lution of profiles at different time points is seen as a continuous For the sake of simplicity, we started with two ordinary univariate broken line, for each group, in the 2D representation. This analysis and continued with a combination of them in a bivariate graphic provides a simple overall summary of the joint evolution version of MANCOVA, that we shall describe hereafter. At the of the various groups. More technical details of this MDS graph start, we considered two factors for both analysis whose levels can be found at SI. were the different possible values of the qualitative variable family/mother language (with two levels corresponding to the main linguistic groups: Catalan and Spanish) and the dichot- Other variables. We repeated the analysis on another qualitative omous variable News (with also two levels, according to whether variable: Preferences for political link between Catalonia and the news were followed at regional public media or not), using Spain, whose values indicated preferences for a centralized state Time (from 2006) as a covariate and considering as dependent (Catalonia as a Region), actual status quo (Home Rule, CA), an variable the percentages of those who feel ‘only Catalan’, for the explicit federal solution (Federal) or an independent state first analysis, or ‘equal Spanish than Catalan’, for the second one. (Independent Catalonia), considering also DK/NA options. The Since the interaction between factors was highly significant, to results come at SI. Furthermore, the positive/negative explicit facilitate the analysis we built a new factor, Group, with four answers in the event of a hypothetic legal referendum about levels, combining the two levels of Family/mother language factor secession from Spain were also analyzed (see SI). This was a and both levels of the factor News. We have used this factor to qualitative variable with three possible outcomes: Yes, No and replace the previously mentioned original binary factors in the DK/NA, reproducing the approach and contrasts of the main final analysis. methods exposed. 4 PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z ARTICLE Ethical approval. All the data for this research came from the C. National identity feeling variable. In that year, the dual national E.O. Barometers, the official survey agency of the Regional identity group ‘Equal Spanish than Catalan’ initiates an abrupt Government, complying with the full legal Spanish requirements descend to nearly 17 percentage points (not yet recovered), while and restrictions to conduct sociological studies about voting single national identity feeling group ‘Only-Catalan’ initiates an behavior and political opinion, and in accordance to the ESO- abrupt escalation of roughly 20 points (not yet reversed). Such a MAR International Code on Market, Opinion and Social Research change in groups that are critical for cohesion of the whole society and Data Analytics. All the statistical analyses included in this call for further inspection involving other variables. paper fulfilled, in addition, the conditions established by the To deepen the analysis, we studied National Identity Feelings in Ethical Commissions of the University of Barcelona, Pompeu different population segments, obtained through another quali- Fabra University and the Autonomous University of Barcelona tative variable: Family/Mother language (surveys used slightly for treatment of human data, when their original source are different questions to address that, along the period, see SI surveys made by official agencies or private firms under specific Appendix). This is a qualitative variable whose main values are external regulations with due guarantees. An ethics approval was either Catalan language or Spanish language that represented the not required for this secondary analysis of the data, as per the 34.9% and 57.3% of the total population respectively, at the last authors’ institutions and national regulations. survey studied, July 2019 (see Fig. 2). The remaining cases were people who answered both Spanish and Catalan languages as family/mother languages. They represented 4.1% of the popula- tion at the last survey. Other cases were negligible. Results Longitudinal changes. We considered first the profiles of the The small group whose family/mother language was ‘Both’ (Spanish and Catalan), exhibited an intermediate behavior, so its variable National Identity Feelings (Sense of Belonging) along the whole period, 2006–2019 (see Fig. 1). This is a qualitative variable graph has been omitted for the sake of brevity. For the Catalan- group (family/mother language), the detected change points with six distinct values: Only Spanish (Spn), More Spanish than Catalan (Spn>Cat), Equal Spanish than Catalan (Spn=Cat), More (considering profiles of all sense of belonging feelings) appeared between the second and the third CEO 2010 Barometer (as a Catalan than Spanish (Cat>Spn), Only Catalan (Cat) and DK/NA decimal number approx. 2010.4), and the second and third CEO (do not know or no answers). Percentages were estimated from 45 surveys over the period 2006–2019 on samples of sizes 2012 Barometer (as a decimal number 2012.65). For the Spanish- group (family/mother language), the detected change points between 2500 and 1500 persons (one survey, at 2017, with 1338 only), with a total number of 88.538 respondents. In all, there was (considering also profiles of all sense of belonging) were between the second and the third CEO 2011 Barometers (as a decimal a total increase of 13 percentage points of those who feel ‘only Catalans’ and a fall of 7 percentage points of Catalan citizens who number 2011.65), and the second and the third CEO 2013 Barometers (as a decimal number 2013.7). The more striking feel ‘equal Catalan than Spanish’, signaling a substantial variation towards decreasing the relevance of dual CatSpanish National changes appeared within the Catalan-group (as defined by family/ mother language), in particular around the regional elections of Identity feelings. Such variations (Fig. 1) attained magnitudes that clearly exceeded 15 percentage points at some points, on both 25th Nov. 2012. The marks in these plots signal events that might have been directions, along the whole period. The more remarkable facts in Fig. 1 are the changes that arise relevant to understand the evolution of the variables along the period (see Methods). The crucial change points detected by the in around 2012 on the size of two critical segments defined by this Fig. 1 Longitudinal changes of National Identity Feelings across the period 2006–2019, for all Catalonian population. Each band shows the evolution of proportions for each national identity feeling (percentages) across the whole period. DK/NA omitted. Bands based on 95% smooth confidence intervals. PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms 5 ARTICLE PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z Fig. 2 Longitudinal changes of National Identity Feelings, across the period 2006–2019, depending on language segmentation. Two Catalonian population segments are considered. UP:a refers to citizens with Family/Mother language Catalan (at July 2019 survey: 34.9% of all Catalonian population). Down: b refers to citizens with Family/Mother language Spanish (at July 2019 survey: 57.3% of all Catalonian population). Bands based on 95% smooth confidence intervals. package ecp, as explained above, were marked as red lines within radio that broadcast exclusively in Catalan language) or through the plots. other media. This variable, which will be referred as News,is dichotomous reaching only two possible values: Regional or Other. We directed our focus (see Fig. 3) to the sense of belonging The effects of following news on public regional media.To ‘Only Catalan’ for the Catalan-group (as defined by family/ obtain a more detailed picture of the evolution of sense of mother language) and for the Spanish-group (also defined by belonging in the main linguistic groups we analyzed the relevance family/mother language). of another variable constructed taking into account the answers of There were abrupt changes in the sense of belonging ‘Only following the news either through regional public media (TV or Catalan’ along the period, clearly dependent on their family/ 6 PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z ARTICLE Fig. 3 Longitudinal changes of the National Identity Feeling “Only Catalan” across the period 2006–2019, depending on language and media news segmentations. The size of this identification type went from 14.2% of all Catalonian population at March 2006 survey, up to 23.5% at July 2019. The four bands correspond to the four citizenry segments obtained crossing the two main categories of Family/Mother language (Catalan vs. Spanish) with the binary variable News (Regional vs. other), depending on whether the news are followed in regional media or not. Bands based on 95% smooth confidence intervals. The fitted lines, one for each group, is a linear model fit. Observe the contrast between the biggest group (Family/mother language Spanish, not following news on regional media: 44.8% at last survey, in green), and the Family/mother language Catalan group who followed news on regional media (21.5%, at last survey, in red). Notice also the different slopes of regression lines indicating distinctive trends. Moreover, the regression lines corresponding to Spanish language subgroups (green and blue) intersect around the year 2006 and we may conjecture, by extrapolating, that the Catalan subgroups (red and purple) should have had a similar behavior in a recent past, around the year 2000. The sizes of blue and purple segments were smaller: 12.5% and 13.4%, respectively, at last survey. mother language but also dependent on having been exposed to 2D dynamic profile diagram. The four subgroups obtained by follow the news in regional public media or not (Fig. 3). The distinguishing family/mother language (Catalan vs. Spanish) and relevance of these where examined through a standard Analysis of whether news were followed in regional public media or other- Covariance. The dependent variable is the percentage of sense of wise, are represented in different colors and letters (see Fig. 5 and belonging ‘Only Catalan’ considering a factor Group (four levels) SI). At a particular time (a survey), each group is represented as a and Time (year) as a covariate. The Group factor and the colored point in the 2D-plot, whose position indicates the profiles interactions were highly significant (see SI). Furthermore, of Sense of belonging feelings corresponding to this group. The comparing the slope of the regression lines, we find that all the evolution of each group through time is explicitly showed joining slopes are significantly different with the exception of the slopes the consecutive points of the group resulting in a continuous of two groups: family/mother language Spanish who follow news colored broken line in the 2D-plot. Relevant dates in the period in public regional media and family/mother language Catalan 2006–2019 are also indicated, with the 25N event (2012) marked who follow news in other media; all the other levels exhibit highly in black. To correctly interpret the plot, different National iden- significant different slopes (p-values obtained by Tukey method tity feelings are also represented simultaneously as points in less than 0.0001). See Table SI-2 for more details. magenta color, with arrows indicating that if we move closer to Thesameanalysisofcovarianceisrepeatedconsidering as a these points, the corresponding identity feelings increase, since dependent variable the percentage of sense of belonging ‘Equal these arrows are the projection of the gradient vector field of the pffiffiffiffi Spanish than Catalan’ (see Fig. 4), with the same factor Group and mapsðÞ p ; ¼ ; p 7!2 p at some convenient points near the 1 6 i Time as covariate, as before. The effects of Group factor and the point which corresponds to a population segment with 100% of interactions were highly significant (see SI). Moreover, comparing people with the i-th identity feeling. The length of these arrows the slope of the regression lines, we can get the different effects of also depends of projection: the longer the arrow, the more media at the four levels of Group factor. Notice that with the important will be the role of the corresponding variable to exception of the slope between both family/mother language Catalan interpret group variability. subgroups, all other levels exhibited very significantly different slopes As can be seen adding the % of explained variance of the x and (p-values obtained by Tukey method less/equal than 0.0061, most of y axis of the graph 94.1% of the total variability is well represented them less than 0.0001). See Table SI-4 for more details. in this 2D-plot. Notice also that the evolution of three of these To complete the analysis, we considered both dependent four groups evolved similarly by increasing their national identity variables simultaneously (MANCOVA), obtaining that both feelings ‘Only Catalan’ and ‘More Catalan than Spanish’,or Group factor, the covariate Time and the interactions were highly decreasing the feeling ‘Equal Spanish than Catalan’ (Catalan or significant (see also SI). Spanish linguistic subgroups following news through public PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms 7 ARTICLE PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z Fig. 4 Longitudinal changes of the National Identity Feeling “Equal Catalan than Spanish” across the period 2006–2019, depending on language and media news segmentations. The size of this identification type went from 42.5% at March 2006 survey, to 39.2% at July 2019. The four bands correspond to the four citizenry segments obtained crossing the two main categories of Family/Mother language (Catalan vs. Spanish) with the binary variable News (Regional vs. other), depending on whether the news is followed in regional media or not. Bands based on 95% smooth confidence intervals. The fitted lines, one for each group, is a linear model fit. Observe the contrast between the biggest group (Family/mother language Spanish, not following news on regional media: 44.8% at last survey, in green) and the Family/mother language Catalan segment who followed news on regional media (21.5% at last survey, in red). They exhibited the highest difference. The biggest trend slopes differences occur when comparing the Spanish segments (green and blue). Notice that dark green and blue lines intersected at 2008, indicating that around this year both groups behaved similarly with respect to the dependent variable. The sizes of blue and purple segments were smaller: 12.5% and 13.4%, respectively, last survey. regional media). The Spanish group (family/mother language) By exploiting the microdata of the whole series of repeated who did not follow the news through the public regional media CEO surveys, Fig. 2 displays a fundamental finding. It shows the (approx. 44.8% of the population, at July 2019), was an exception evolution of Sense of belonging (National identity feelings) dif- of this radicalizing trend. This group, after a small oscillation ferentiated into two main citizenry segments: family/mother between 2012 and 2013 (closer in time to 25N event, 2012), language Catalan versus family/mother language Spanish. For the returned almost to its initial position. In the remaining groups the first one there was a striking variation in a short period: an central and remarkable position of 25N 2012 event, is clearly intense erosion of the dual-identity (Spn=Cat, at Figures) and an visible, to the point of an apparent delimitation of two clusters intense increase of the single-identity Only Catalan. Note that, in within each group. Groups B and C appear to be moving, lately, this segment, the single-identity Only Catalan scaled approxi- towards their initial positions. mately 30 percentual points in less than eight years. To our Similar plots were built for preferred political-territorial link knowledge, there are no other examples of such dramatic changes with Spain, to analyze the evolution of preferences about political in national identity within a stable Western society, in such a ties between Catalonia and Spain (See SI Figs. SI-1, SI-2). short period. In contrast, for the segment family/mother language Spanish, the dual-identity (Spn=Cat) continued with nearly no erosion (neither we see appreciable variation towards the single- identity Only Spanish). Figure 1 also documents the sudden Discussion change, around 2012, on national identity of two fractions, Our analyses focused mainly on “Sense of belonging” (National namely the “Equal Catalan than Spanish” and “Only Catalan”, identity feelings) since it is a variable which (a) has been present two population segments that are likely to contribute with invariably in all CEO surveys and (b) has shown dramatic cohesion or division, respectively, within the whole society. The changes along the secessionist surge (the so-called “el procés”) outstanding feature of Figs. 2a, b is the detailed dissection of such (Amat, 2015; Barrio and Field, 2018; Coll et al., 2018; Elliot, important variations, documenting the differences in the evolu- 2018). As argued above, the eruption of the secessionist campaign tion of sense of belonging among these two segments. delimited two periods: long and stable previous decades when This statistical evidence, supported by more than 45 surveys dual-national identity (Sense of belonging: Equal Catalan than amounting to 88.538 observations is striking, given the extended Spanish) was dominant and worked as an amalgamating factor previous period in which no moves were seen on this key, for Catalonian society (Amat, 2015; Elliot, 2018); and the current national identity variable (Tormos et al., 2014; Barrio and Field, one, when an abrupt polarization lead the citizenry into antag- 2018). It is worth noting that the change introduced by CEO, at onistic and confronted blocks, one formed by those with single- 2011, asking for ‘childhood or maternal language' instead of identity Catalan (dominant on the secessionist field), and a sec- ‘family language' may have had some consequences, although ond one where dual-identity Cat-Spanish prevails (dominant on they were not apparent at all in the observed series. Cultivation of the unionist field). 8 PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z ARTICLE Only Spn Spn>Cat * Only Cat (44.8%) 10   B * 11   18  17 15 (13.4%)  2019 7   16 15 16   13 DK/NA 17  . 25N 13 *  18 2019 . 12 . 2019 25N 13 12 17  (21.5%) 25N   8 8 7 7    9 . * *  8 25N 9 11 (12.5%) Spn=Cat Cat>Spn −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 PC1 (87.3%) Fig. 5 2D−Dynamic Profile Diagram of National Identity Feelings across the period 2006–2019. For the four citizenry segments obtained crossing Family/ Mother language (Catalan vs. Spanish) and News (following news on public regional media or not). Group A (red): Family/mother language Catalan, following news on regional media (21.5% at July 2019 survey); Group B (purple): Family/mother language Catalan not following news on regional media (13.4% at July 2019 survey); Group C (blue): Family/mother language Spanish, following news on public regional media (12.5% at July 2019 survey); Group D (green): Family/mother language Spanish not following news on regional media (44.8% at July 2019 survey). This diagram summarizes the evolution of identity profiles for each colored group (24 series of respondent answers coming from 45 surveys, 2006–2019) in a mathematical space in which each point represents the percentages of National Identity Feelings within a group. Notice that Groups A–C suffered a clear displacement in the space of National Identity Feelings pre and post 25N regional elections (November 25th, 2012), in the sense of a greater polarization (‘Only Catalan’ feeling increases when we move to the top-right of the diagram). Group D exhibited a small movement near the event of 25N, but returned to its original position at present. Notice that this group is the biggest one (44.8%, last survey: July 2019). This is a two-dimension reduction with quality of representationof 83% in the x-axes and 6.8% in the y-axis (overall, a quality of representation of 94.1%). double or multilayered national identity feelings has been argued first group, the results are compatible with the hypothesis that a to be preventive for societies harboring unsealed ethno-cultural good number of people with family/mother language Catalan rely frontiers, whereas promoting single-identity national feelings, above all on the regional public media (Garcia, 2013; Tobeña, either only Catalan or only Spanish in this case, can be a source of 2017; Oller et al, 2019a, 2019b) which additionally, broadcast social unrest and potentially serious confrontations (Horowitz, exclusively in Catalan language. A good part of the segment with 2001; Esteban and Ray, 2008; Esteban et al., 2012). In con- family/mother language Catalan follows political news through sequence, it may be wise to invest resources promoting double- these regional public media (it accounts for approximately 21.5% identities. of overall population, at the last survey) and they can become Figures 3, 4 show that following Regional public media (TV disseminators themselves through family/friends networks. This and Radio) under control of Regional Government (both may explain why the group with family/mother language Catalan broadcasting in Catalan language, exclusively) correlated with a that do not follow news in the regional public media is also higher polarization around the issue of secession in the main affected (it accounts for approximately 13.4% of overall popula- language segments, family/mother language Catalan and family/ tion, last survey), albeit in an attenuated way: the growth rate of mother language Spanish, with some differences. Concerning the 'Only Catalan' identity feelings was approximately 2/3 of the PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms 9 PC2 (6.8%) −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 ARTICLE PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z growth rate of those who follow regional public media. The key fact, the definitive point of departure for the secessionist wave, factor is the trust on media that everyone view as ‘familiar' within when Catalonian President at that time (leading a moderate these two segments. Notice the contrasting evolution of red nationalist party) lose the majority at the Autonomous Parlia- (regional public media) vs. purple (other media), for the family/ ment. From that moment onwards, parliamentary majority mother language Catalan group at Figs. 3, 4. depended from various secessionist forces and the Government Concerning the second group, family/mother language Spanish opted for secession from Spain as its dominant strategy (Barrio two facts deserve attention. First, the segment who follow news and Field, 2018; Elliot, 2018). Figure 2 illustrates how, around through public regional media (it accounts for 12.5% approx. of these elections, a segment of citizenry (formed mainly by those overall population, last survey) changed their identity feelings in with family/mother language Catalan and reporting “only Cata- the same direction as the group with family/mother language lan”, as national identity), departed from a previous slowly rising Catalan. However, the family/mother language Spanish segment tendency (Bertomeus, 2018a), towards an abrupt acceleration. who does not follow news through public regional media Percentages peaked on the first (illegal) consultation about (accounting for 44.8% approx. of overall population, last survey) secession (9 Nov 2014), and the rising stabilized at high levels all remained stable, without appreciable changes. Secondly, there was along the struggle between Regional and Spanish powers that an absence of significant polarization at the opposite national persist today. This segment displayed parallel trends on several Identity ‘Only Spanish’. This fact is compatible with the con- measures: national identity feelings (“sense of belonging”); pre- jecture that public regional media were a source of polarizing ferences for political links with Spain (opting for “independence”); inputs, as the remaining media, which broadcast to all Spain, have and expressing support for secession on a hypothetic (and legal) not paid as much attention to regional political crises despite its referendum for self-determination (see SI1-SI2 Figures). Such relevance at particular moments. Figure SI-S4 (see SI) shows the narrowing of national self-identification linked to preferences for absence of intensification of National identity feelings in the secession showed by this group of “Catalan-natives” mainly, was citizenry segment who follow news in Spanish generalist TV not mirrored in the other big segments of citizenry (those with channels broadcasting to all of Spain (it accounts for approxi- either Spanish or both Catalan+Spanish languages as their mately 32.9% of overall population, last survey), independently of family/mother language). These fractions tended to maintain their family/mother language. their dual “CatSpanish” national identities without noticeable Notice the contrasting evolution of blue (regional public changes. Globally, our systematic results confirmed the out- media) vs. dark green (other media), for the family/mother lan- standing polarization around the issue of secession that Llaneras guage Spanish group at Figs. 3, 4. The evolution of identity feelings (2017), Marí-Klose (2018), Bertomeus (2018), Guntermann et al. shown at these Figures, where we interacted family language with (2018), Rodón and Guinjoan (2019), and Maza et al. (2019) had preferences for following Regional media, raises suspicions about already shown departing from a handful of surveying points or the persuasive role played by the contents of public TV and Radio from electoral results. controlled by Autonomous powers. We must highlight the fact Following or not the news on Regional public media was an that the narrowing and intensification on National identity feel- important mediator of changes on National identity feelings ings only occurred in the segment with family/mother language (“sense of belonging”) and for preferences for secession. The Catalan, whereas the segment family/mother language Spanish, strong gaps on media following preferences (news and political larger in size, did not significantly evolved in the opposite debates) based essentially on family-language divisions, surely direction, towards a 'Only Spanish' identity. This contributes to contributed to exaggerate distinctive communal affections and diminish the chances of an open conflict. The erosion of dual- frames of reference at both sides of the ethnolinguistic frontier: identity feelings within these segments would be a loss of the Catalans vs. CatSpanish. TV channels, newspapers and broad- amalgamating capital of a citizenry that shares the same territory casting stations which are directly or indirectly under control of (in Catalonia, this means usually face to face doors). the Regional Government not only dominated but fully encap- Two recognizable “turning points” signaled clear departures sulated the secessionist audiences operating only or mostly, in towards distinctive polarization profiles among those segments of Catalan language. This represents an obvious mismatch as Catalan citizenship subgroups. The first one appeared shortly Spanish is the language of daily use of more than half of Catalan before the sentence of the Spanish High Court, at 2010, modifying citizens, thus reflecting the operation of a “communication bub- the Autonomy Statute that had been approved at 2006. A second ble” that nourished the secessionist fraction: middle class natives and much more important one was the decision taken by the and assimilated citizens who use Catalan language almost moderate nationalist party that had been leading the Regional exclusively, in their daily routines and get their political opinion Government, for decades, of adopting a secessionist agenda mainly from regional/local media (Barrio and Field, 2018; Coll around autumn 2012. In his systematic comparison between the et al., 2018; Miley, 2007, 2013; Crameri, 2014, 2015; Tobeña, lawful and agreed Scottish bid for independence (preceding the 2017a; Rodon and Guinjoan, 2018). Despite unsolved discussions 2014 referendum), and the unlawful and unilateral at Catalonia, on the relative power of media to modify social opinion, there is Elliot (2018) identified the same “breaking points”. Our plots agreement on their influence upon segmented audiences (Quat- show that the appearance of the first one contradicts the depiction trociocchi et al., 2011, 2014, Shoemaker and Stremlau, 2014). of Catalonian secessionist push as an outrage reaction against the Before the dawn of secessionist surge, Miley (2007) established “deep grievance” of the sentence from High Spanish Court, the existence of divergent modes of national identification across modifying a few articles the 2006 new Statute of Autonomy that the main segments of Catalan society that depended on an eth- had been voted by a minority of citizens. Pro-secession polar- nolinguistic frontier. Departing from CIS surveys and other ization within a fraction of citizenry had already started before social data, he challenged the depiction of Catalonian nationalism such sentence. This is compatible with the conjecture that the as a form of “civic nationalism.” He showed that Catalan society impact of the TC sentence about the new Home Rule was relevant contained an ethnolinguistic cleavage that distinguished self- mainly to the extent that it has been used, extensively, as a identification of two main population segments: “native, Catalan political weapon to invigorate secessionist activism and increase speaking” citizens and their Spanish-speaking neighbors with polarization . immigrant origins from other parts of Spain. “Mother tongue” Much more decisive was, however, the period leading to the had, in fact, the strongest impact upon an individual’s self- regional elections at 25th Nov 2012. Such elections marked, in identification as predominantly Catalan vs. predominantly 10 PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z ARTICLE Spanish o mixed “CatSpanish” identities. In subsequent studies, contextual intimidation to keep silent the majority of citizenry Miley (2013) showed that there was a gap between political (Barrio and Field, 2018; Morel, 2018; Tobeña, 2017a, 2018). Our preferences of wide segments of citizenry and those of their findings indicate that family language has worked as a dividing representatives at the Autonomous Parliament: the language line but also as a protective umbrella to preserve a mixed Cat- policy implemented by Regional powers was inconsistent with Spanish national identity, during a period of relentless social preferences of Spanish-speaking citizens. He identified, moreover, pressure coming from secessionist activism and local media. two mechanisms that blocked their representation into the Other types of social influence were used extensively, with the aim Region’s institutions: (1) a clear under-representation of those of deepening political polarization. A large-scale analysis pro- citizens in the Autonomous Parliament; and (2) a partial assim- vided solid evidence that during the 2017 illegal “referendum” for ilation of some Spanish-speaking elected politicians into the Catalonian independence, analyzed as a case study, social bots attitudes of Catalan-speaking rulers. He concluded that the social generated and promoted violent content, aimed mainly at the bases of support for Catalan nationalism were “overwhelmingly secessionist population segment (Stella et al., 2018). Nearly 4 ethnic” and that the movement was an elite-led, “top down” million Twitter posts, on that issue, generated by almost 1 million project. The present findings add likelihood to that hypothesis, users were monitored and analyzed during two weeks around since we see that the ethnolinguistic factor is highly associated to such event. The findings clearly indicated that automated social distinctive polarization during the secessionist surge. Divergent hacking contributed to exacerbate a severe political conflict. polarizing profiles associated also to differential exposures to the In conclusion, the present findings showed that an ethno- media under control of Regional powers. linguistic cleavage based mainly on family/mother language Boylan (2015) had already shown, that national identity (being (Catalan vs. Spanish) worked as a dividing line for a serious Catalan native or assimilated) was a much stronger predictor of political confrontation between secessionists and unionists. This the desire for secession, than perceived grievances resulting from is the first complete quantitative analyses of the distinctive evo- an unfair fiscal treatment or other economic and political factors lution of National identity feelings among those population seg- (analyzing CEO surveys, 2011–2013). Applying different statistical ments, during the period 2006–2019. The findings underscore the methods both Bel et al. (2019) and Romero-Vidal (2019) have crucial role played by media influence to accentuate political emphasized the inability of important contextual factors to explain polarization and partisanship around the issue of secession. They the surge and maintenance of Catalonian secessionist push: nei- provide a workable example of how ethnolinguistic frontiers can ther the impact of the deep economic crisis between 2008–2013 or be used as fracture line for divisive conflict within an advanced, the evolution of preferences for policy attitudes at the Region, open and democratic European context. We suspect that there are along the whole period 1991–2018, were able to convincingly still political avenues to be pursued, with the aim of preventing explain the appearance of intense and sustained demands for full the conversion of the ongoing secessionist challenge, in Catalonia, sovereignty. In this regard, the present findings may represent an into a chronic and intractable ethno-political conflict. Departing initial step for more extensive and fruitful approaches to an from objective and thorough statistical data could be, perhaps, a unexpected and mostly not yet explained secession crisis. good starting point for giving chances to encompassing instead of The highest achievement of the secessionist movement was the divisive and dangerous polarizing policies. creation of an intense devotion for the goal of Catalonian inde- pendence, to the point of carrying the emphatic characteristics of Data availability a collective romantic passion that engaged an impressive segment As already stated our primary data are public and easily accesible of citizenry (Tobeña, 2017a). Such passion hardly enticed, how- at CEO web (Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió, http://ceo.gencat.cat/). In ever, the rest of Catalan population. The ingroup self-glorification addition to the data provided both at Main Text and SI sections, ingredients conveyed by such nationalistic passion excluded, by many other analytical and graphic results were obtained for the definition, other actors within the region (Roccas et al., 2006; period 2006–2019. In particular, all series of mosaic plots derived Leidner et al., 2010; Waytz et al., 2014). Fulfilling a dream for by crossing different pairs of variables. All of them can be sup- reaching full sovereignty by agreed and democratic pathways plied by the authors to interested readers on demand. requires a clear majority, but Catalan secessionists appeared convinced that they deserved a swift and easy separation from Received: 2 May 2019; Accepted: 29 October 2019; Spain on the bases of a tiny parliamentary (non-social) majority. This belief might perhaps derive from “collective narcissism” (Golec de Zavala et al., 2009, 2019), a propensity that amounts to a conviction in the greatness of one’s group accompanied by demands of external validation. Those narcissists typically Notes demand privileged recognition and treatment, not equal rights. 1 We use the label “Unionists” to identify the citizenry who is against secession, for Recent findings indicated that national collective narcissism practical reasons. This label permits an immediate understanding of the opposing mediated voting behavior in the Unites States: besides intense postures. We are fully aware that some anti-secession forces prefer the term partisanship (Mason, 2018), this trait was a main factor pre- “Constitutionalists” or “Non-secessionists” because “Unionism” carries, in Catalonia, a deprecating tone and can be used as an insult during hot political debates. dicting Trump victory in the 2016 US election (Golec de Zavala 2 Catalan language is mandatory, as first language, at primary school and most of high et al., 2017). Collective narcissism also mediated Brexit 2016 vote, school (See: “Usos lingüístics de la població de Catalunya: Enquesta 2013, Generalitat at UK (Federico and Golec de Zavala, 2018), along with other de Catalunya: Departament de Cultura, http://llengua.gencat.cat/web/.content/ cognitive mediators (Zmigrod et al., 2018). Specific studies on this documents/publicacions/altres/arxius/eulp2013_fullet.pdf.) issue would be required that should encompass not only Cata- 3 CEO (Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió, http://ceo.gencat.cat/). lonian secessionists but also people from recently reactivated 4 Until summer 2011 the survey question explicitly asked for ‘family language’, after that for ‘childhood language in the family’, see more details at SI Appendix. pockets of Spanish nationalism. 5 See SI and Oller et al. 2019b: a less technical essay directed to a general audience, on The lack of a social majority behind the secessionist push similar targets as the present one but involving a smaller data set and with more opened apprehensions that had been tampered for decades emphasis on economic aspects. (Amat, 2015, 2017; Coll et al., 2018; Crameri, 2014; Elliott, 2018), 6 CIS (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/index. and it is hard to foresee pathways to defuse current tensions. The html). pressure applied by the secessionist field included many forms of PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms 11 ARTICLE PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z References Matteson DS, James NA (2014) A nonparametric approach for multiple change Amat J (2015) El llarg procés: cultura i política a la Catalunya contemporània point analysis of multivariate data. J Am Stat Assoc 109(505):334–345. (1937–2014). Tusquets, Barcelona https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2013.849605 Amat J (2017) La conjura de los irresponsables. Anagrama, Barcelona Maza A, Villaverde J, Hierro M (2019) The 2017 Regional Election in Catalonia: an Barceló-Soler J (2013) The battle for secession: Catalonia versus Spain. J Politic attempt to understand the pro-independence vote. Econom Política 36:1–18 Inquiry 1:1–11 Miley ThJ (2007) Against the thesis of the "civic nation": the case of Catalonia in Barrio A, Rodríguez-Teruel J (2017) Reducing the gap between leaders and voters? contemporary Spain. Nationalism Ethn Politics 13:1–37 Elite polarization, outbidding competition, and the rise of secessionism in Miley ThJ (2013) Blocked articulation and nationalist hegemony in Catalonia. Catalonia. Ethn Racial Stud 40(10):1776–1794 Regional Fed Stud 23(1):7–26 Barrio A, Field BN (2018) The push for independence in Catalonia. Nat Hum Minder R (2017) The struggle for Catalonia: rebel politics in Spain, London: Hurst Behav 2:713–715 and Co. Bel G, Cuadras-Morató X, Rodon (2019) Crisis? What crisis? Economic recovery Morel S (2018) En el huracán catalán, Barcelona:Planeta and support for independence in Catalonia, Regional Science Policy and Oller JM, Satorra A (2017) Toward an index of political toxicity. BEIO 33 Practice. https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12236 (2):163–182. http://www.seio.es/BBEIO/BEIOVol33Num2/index.html#86 Bertomeus O (2018) ¿Sigue Cataluña siendo “un sol poble”? Agenda Pública 3:5 Oller JM, Satorra A, Tobeña A (2019a) Secessionists vs. Unionists in Catalonia: Bertomeus O (2018a) El terratrèmol silenciós: relleu generacional i transformació mood, emotional profiles and beliefs about secession perspectives in two del comportament electoral a Catalunya. Eumo Ed, Vic confronted communities. Psychology 10:336–357. https://doi.org/10.4236/ Boylan BM (2015) In pursuit of independence: the political economy of Catalonia’s psych.2019.103024 secessionist movement. Nation Nationalism 21:761–785 Oller JM, Satorra A, Tobeña A (2019b) Pathways and legacies of the secessionist Burbea J, Rao CR (1982) Entropy differential metric, distance and divergence measures push in Catalonia: linguistic frontiers, economic segments and media roles in probability spaces: a unified approach. J Multivar Anal 12(4):575–596 within a divided society, Policy Network Papers, Oct. (https://policynetwork. Castano E (2008) On the perils of glorifying the in-group: intergroup violence, in- org/publications/papers/pathways-and-legacies-of-the-secessionist-push-in- group glorification and moral disengagement. Personal Soc Psychol Compass catalonia/). 2(1):154–170 Quattrociocchi W, Conte R, Lodi E (2011) Opinions manipulation: media, power Crameri K (2014) Goodbye Spain? The Question of Independence for Catalonia. and gossip. Adv Complex Syst 14:567–586 Sussex Academic Press, Eastbourne Quattrociocchi W, Caldarelli G, Scala A (2014) Opinion dynamics on interacting Crameri K (2015) Political power and civil counterpower: the complex dynamics of networks: media competition and social influence. Sci Rep 4:4938 the Catalan independence movement. Nationalism Ethn Polit 21:104–120 Qvortrup M (2014) Referendums and Ethnic Conflict. University of Pennsylvania Coll J, Molina I, Arias-Maldonado M (eds.) (2018) Anatomía del procés. Debate, Press, Philadelphia Madrid OEC Group (2017) La Cataluña immune al procès. SCC, Barcelona. https://www. Cuadras-Morató X, Rodon T (2018) The dog that didn’t bark: on the effect of the societatcivilcatalana.cat/sites/default/files/docs/La-Cataluna-inmune-vf.pdf Great Recession on the surge of secessionism. Ethnic Racial Stud 1–20 Roccas S, Klar Y, Leviatan I (2006) The paradox of group-based guilt: modes of Dowling A (2018) The rise of Catalan independence: Spain’s territorial crisis. national identification, conflict vehemence, and reactions to the in-group’s Routdlege, New York moral violations. J Personal Soc Psychol 91(4):698–711 Elliot JH (2018) Scots and Catalans: union and disunion. Yale University Press, Rodon T, Guinjoan M (2018) When the context matters: identity, secession and the New Haven spatial dimension in Catalonia. Political Geogr 63:75–87 Esteban J, Ray D (2008) On the salience of ethnic conflict. Am Econ Rev 98 Romero-Vidal X (2019) Two temperatures for one thermostat: the evolution of (5):2185–2202 policy attitudes and suport for independence in Catalonia 1991-2018. Nation Esteban J, Mayoral L, Ray D (2012) Ethnicity and conflicts: theory and facts. Nationalism. https://doi.org/10.1111/nana.12559 Science 336:858–865 Serrano I (2013) Just a matter of identity?: support for independence in Catalonia. Federico ChM, Golec de Zavala A (2018) Collective Narcissism and the 2016 Regional Fed Stud 23(5):523–545 United States Presidential Vote. Public Opin Q 82(1):110–121 Sidanius J, Feshbach S, Levin S, Pratto F (1997) The interface between ethnic and Garcia C (2013) Strategic communication applied to nation building in Spain: the national attachment: ethnic pluralism or ethnic dominance? Public Opin Q experience of the Catalan Region. Public Relat Rev 39:558–562 61(1):102–133 Golec de Zavala A, Cichocka A, Eidelson R, Jayawickreme N (2009) Collective Shoemaker E, Stremlau N (2014) Media and conflict: an assessment of evidence. narcissism and its social consequences. J Personal Soc Psychol 97:1074–1096 Prog Dev Stud 14(2):181–195 Golec de Zavala A, Guerra R, Simao C (2017) The Relationship between the Brexit Sorens J (2005) The cross-sectional determinants of secessionism in advanced vote and individual predictors of prejudice: collective narcissism, right-wing democracies. Comp Political Stud 38:304–326 authoritarianism and social dominance orientation. Front Psychol 8:2023. Stella M, Ferrara E, De Domenico M (2018) Bots increase exposure to negative and https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.02023 inflammatory content in online social systems. PNAS 115:12435–12440. Golec de Zabala A, Dyduch-Hazar K, Lantos D (2019) Collective narcissism: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1803470115 political consequences of investing self-worth in the ingroup’s image. Political Tobeña A (2017) Secessionist urges in Catalonia: media indoctrination and social Psychol 40(S1):37–74 pressure effects. Psychology 8:77–96 Griffiths RD, Guillén-Alvarez P, Martínez Coma F (2015) Between the sword and Tobeña A (2017a) La pasión secesionista: psicobiología del independentismo. the wall: Spain’s limited options for Catalan secessionism. Nation National- EDLibros, Barcelona ism 21:43–61 Tobeña A (2018) Entrenched Catalonia: a secessionist venture trapped on an Guntermann E, Blais A, Lago I, Guinjoan M (2018) A study of voting behaviour in ethnopolitical draw. Psychology 9:460–471 an exceptional context: the 2017 Catalan election study. Eur Political Sci, Tormos R, Muñoz J, Hierro MJ (2014) Endogenous identities? How the inde- https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-018-0173-8 pendence debate is reshaping Catalans’ identity. IBEI Workshop The Politics Hastie T, Tibshirani R (1990) Generalized Additive Models. Chapman and Hall, of Identity Adoption, Barcelona, http://www.cuimpb.cat/files/TormosMu% London C3%B1ozHierro_EndogenousIdentities.pdf Horowitz D (2001) The deadly ethnic riot. University of California Press, Berkeley Von Babel JJ, Pereira A (2018) The partisan brain: an identity-based model of James NA Matteson DS (2013) ecp: R package Nonparametr Mult change point political belief. Trends Cogn Sci 22(3):213–223 Anal Multivar data, arXiv 1309:3295, http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/ Waytz A, Young LL, Ginges J (2014) Motive attribution asimmetry for love vs. hate 2013arXiv1309.3295J drives intractable conflict. PNAS 11(44):15687–15692 Leidner B, Castano E, Zaiser E, Giner-Sorolla R (2010) Ingroup glorification, moral Wood SN, Pya N, Saefken B (2016) Smoothing parameter and model selection for disengagement, and justice in the context of collective violence. Personal Soc general smooth models (with discussion). J Am Stat Assoc 111:1548–1575. Psychol Bull 36(8):1115–1129 https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2016.1180986 Llaneras K (2017) El apoyo a la independencia tiene raíces económicas y de origen social, Zmigrod L, Rentfrow PJ, Robbins TW (2018) Cognitive underpinnings of natio- El País. https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/09/28/ratio/1506601198_808440. nalistic ideology in the context of Brexit. PNAS 115(19):E4532–E4540 html Lustick IS, Miodownik D, Eidelson RJ (2004) Secessionism in multicultural states: does sharing power prevent or encourage it? Am Political Sci Rev 98:209–229 Marí-Klose P (2018) Cataluña deshilachada: procesos de desintegración de una Acknowledgements comunidad imaginada. In: Coll J, Molina I, Arias-Maldonado M (eds) Damián Gil M.D. provided the first script that permitted to build the database of the full Anatomía del procés. Debate, Madrid, pp 221–246 series of CEO Barometers. OEC Group members provided lively discussions with suggestions Mason L (2018) Uncivil agreement: how politics became our identity. University that improved and helped to focus the present research. A.T. work was partially supported by Chicago Press AFOSR-MINERVA FA9550-18-0496 Grant and Bial Foundation Grant 163/14. 12 PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z ARTICLE Competing interests Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons The authors declare no competing interests. Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Additional information Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party Supplementary information is available for this paper at https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599- material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless 019-0357-z. indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to A.T. regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/ Reprints and permission information is available at http://www.nature.com/reprints licenses/by/4.0/. Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. © The Author(s) 2019 PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms 13 http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Humanities and Social Sciences Communications Springer Journals

Unveiling pathways for the fissure among secessionists and unionists in Catalonia: identities, family language, and media influence

Loading next page...
 
/lp/springer-journals/unveiling-pathways-for-the-fissure-among-secessionists-and-unionists-hNyJzkONuf

References (63)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
2019 The Author(s)
eISSN
2055-1045
DOI
10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

ARTICLE https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z OPEN Unveiling pathways for the fissure among secessionists and unionists in Catalonia: identities, family language, and media influence 1 2 3 José M. Oller , Albert Satorra & Adolf Tobeña * ABSTRACT Catalonian secessionism acquired prominence from 2010 onwards. During the last decade secessionist parties won three regional elections and sustained Governments by tiny majorities at the Autonomous Parliament. Two illegal consultations about self- determination were called and around 2 million (38% of population census) supported secession from Spain. An “Independence Declaration” was proclaimed on 27th Oct. 2017, followed by suspension of Home Rule sanctioned by Spanish Parliament that endured till mid- 2018. The main consequence of the secessionist push was the build-up of a confrontation between two large segments of Catalan citizenry, unionists and secessionists, which was absent before. This study aims to shed light on the rise of secessionism and the appearance of a deep fissure between these communities. By building upon the complete series of data from iterated official polls (88.538 respondents, 45 surveys), the paper displays the evolving changes along the period 2006–2019 of national identity feelings (“sense of belonging”). Along that period, there were increases exceeding 15 percentage points of “only Catalan” national identity and analogous decreases of "equally Catalan and Spanish" dual national identity. The findings disclosed highly significant covariations between changing trends on national identity feelings with: (1) family/mother language, Catalan vs. Spanish; (2) following regional media versus other media. Since language/ascendancy origins and media consumption trends are closely interrelated, within Catalonia, our discussion focuses on the role played by such ethno-cultural cleavage. Further, statistical analysis for longitudinal data identified several turning points linked to singular political events that likely accentuated polarization around the issue of secession. The findings unveil evolving tracks that could help in the under- standing of a process that, in a very short time, produced a severe social division within a fully open and democratic society at the heart of Europe. 1 2 Department of Genetics, Microbiology and Statistics, University of Barcelona, Diagonal 643, 08028 Barcelona, Spain. Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona-GSE, Barcelona, Spain. Department of Psychiatry and Forensic Medicine, Institute of Neurosciences, Universitat Autònoma Barcelona, 08193-Bellaterra Campus, Cerdanyola, Barcelona, Spain. *email: adolf.tobena@uab.cat PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms 1 1234567890():,; ARTICLE PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z Introduction he surge, rapid evolution and failed culmination of the feelings (“sense of belonging”) are a main mediator of the divide recent secessionist attempt at Catalonia was a unique between secessionists and unionists (Oller et al., 2019a, 2019b): Texperiment in contemporary Western politics. It carried the first ones declare an almost exclusive emotional/affective characteristic ingredients: (1) gigantic and iterated street identity link with Catalonia, whereas unionists have various demonstrations fueled by an unrelenting and skillful activism; (2) communal affects, with a dominant double attachment with absence of a clear secessionist majority within the region; (3) Spain-Catalonia (Catspanish). The accentuation of affective fea- strong impulse and direction given by a Regional Government tures of identity around a specific political divide (accept/reject and an Autonomous Parliament openly confronting Central secession), can reproduce similar paths towards increasing ani- Powers; (4) systematic pro-secession bias by public media con- mosity and ruthless partisanship that have characterized recent trolled by Autonomous powers; (5) overwhelming social pressure political struggle at several Western societies (Von Babel and by a continuous presence of secessionist symbols everywhere; (6) Pereira, 2018). Harsh partisanship between USA democrats and successful silencing of the majoritarian non-secessionist citizenry republicans that grew through an increasingly narrow fusion throughout most of the upsurge (Barrio and Field, 2018; Elliott, between self and group identities is a prominent example of that 2018). All that arising at one of the richest and more advanced (Mason, 2018), and the contemptuous struggle that currently Spanish regions, within a democratic context at the heart of the divide Britons on the issue of remaining or leaving the EU is European Union. The upsurge was an unexpected, enduring and another one (Golec de Zavala et al., 2017; Zmigrod et al., 2018). extremely resilient mass movement (Crameri, 2014, 2015) that During deep political crises the existence of unsealed ethno- attracted global media attention (Minder, 2017; Morel, 2018), cultural cleavages is a widely known pre-requisite to trigger leaving the Spanish Government paralyzed for years and the processes of quick polarization between neighboring communities European Union perplexed (see at SI, a summary of events and (Horowitz, 2001; Esteban et al., 2012). The ethnolinguistic clea- electoral results). vage that separates the two main Catalonian communities had A plethora of interpretations (Amat, 2015, 2017; Barrio and been highlighted by Miley (2007, 2013). The first ones use Cat- Field, 2018; Barceló-Soler, 2013; Boylan, 2015; Crameri, alan language in all domains, whereas the second ones prefer 2014, 2015; Coll et al., 2018; Cuadras-Morató and Rodon, 2018; Spanish despite their knowledge of Catalan language . Using Dowling, 2018; Elliot, 2018; Griffiths et al., 2015; Minder, 2017; survey data from CEO Barometers after the four Regional elec- Morel, 2018; Serrano, 2013), tried to explain the secessionist surge tions between 2010 and 2017, Bertomeus (2018) found that at Catalonia focusing mainly on economic and socio-political Catalan-speaking citizens augmented their support to secessionist issues: a deep economic recession during the preceding years; parties, whereas Spanish-speaking ones increased their vote for irritation with malfunctioning and corruption of Spanish parties unionist parties in divergent though comparable shifts. OEC and institutions; arrogance and passivity of Spain’s central gov- Group (2017) had also showed that such tendency towards a ernment in front of a movement instigated by ambitious and stronger political polarization was rooted on the main linguistic discontent regional elites; weaknesses and inadequacies of the divide. Llaneras (2017) added socioeconomic factors to the gap European Union. These factors surely contributed in varying between unionists and secessionists. Secession appealed mostly to degrees, though they left unexplained why they had uniquely native Catalans (CEO Barometer July 2017): it was higher among combined within a single European region, to the point of trig- citizens born in Catalonia and with at least one parent born there, gering urgent demands for segregation, while similar tensions did with a maximum (75%) for those with long native ascendancy. not appear in other comparable Southern Europe regions. Among citizens coming from abroad or from other Spanish Barrio and Field (2018) proposed that the secessionist push was regions, and for those born within the region from migrant par- not simply a bottom-up process where malcontent and self- ents, secession was not attractive at all. The divide depended also organized citizens increasingly escalated demands for indepen- on incomes: secession support predominated among citizens with dence. Longitudinal findings had shown that Catalan political highest incomes and among those who said: “we live comfortably”. elites were more radical than citizens and that outbidding to win On the contrary, most people with the lowest salaries and those hegemony in the pro-secession camp probably fueled the move- disclosing “many economic difficulties” were against secession. ment (Barrio and Rodríguez-Teruel, 2017). Hence the secessionist Maza et al. (2019) multivariate analysis of voting behavior at the surge could have depended also from top-down influences arising last Regional Elections (21 Dec. 2017), confirmed the priority of from harsh competition between nationalist elites and parties to ascendancy origins to explain the results, while greatly diminish- keep a dominant position within the Region. From such per- ing the relevance of economic factors. Cuadras-Morató and Rodon spective the secessionist wave (“the procés”), was a movement (2018) obtained fully concordant results using survey and electoral nourished by local elites narrowly intermingled with the Auton- data, at two time points, and Oller et al. (2019b) as well, in a omous administration, to take advantage of the “window of parallel analysis of the longitudinal data used here. opportunity” (Griffiths et al., 2015) opened by the deep economic This ethnocultural cleavage defined a breaking line for the and political weaknesses of a Spain near bankruptcy, during division created by the secessionist campaign (Tobeña, 2017; 2008–2013 period. Barrio and Field, 2018; Elliot, 2018). The divide has not arrived at The more important consequence of the failed secession ven- the threshold of an open violent conflict, though tensions were ture was the excavation of a deep divide of Catalan society into high during autumn of 2017 and they subsist while the situation two confronted communities: secessionists and unionists . The remains on a chronic standstill. Frictions are not rare at different lack of a social majority behind the secessionist attempt opened social scenarios and keep confronted two communities who had apprehensions and frictions that had been mostly absent pre- enjoyed a long tradition of tolerant and convivial relationships viously (Amat, 2015; Barrio and Field, 2018; Elliot, 2018; Dowl- (Amat, 2015, 2017; Barrio and Field, 2018; Elliot, 2018). There ing, 2018). Close neighbors, colleagues, acquaintances and even have been worries that such a divide might lead to inter-group friends and families who had shared feelings of belonging to both clashes that would carry the ingredients that appear in societies Catalonia and Spain (in different degrees), as a part of their sheltering unsealed ethno-cultural frontiers (Esteban et al., 2012; values, are now divided on the issue of secession and must endure Horowitz, 2001; Lustick et al., 2004; Sidanius et al., 1997; Sorens, living together amid an unsolved tension (Amat, 2017; Barrio and 2005; Miley, 2007; Castano, 2008; Qvortrup, 2014; Waytz et al., Field, 2018; Coll et al., 2018; Elliott, 2018). National identity 2014). 2 PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z ARTICLE The present paper aims to shed light on enacting vectors that variable with others related to the main ethnolinguistic cleavage facilitated the division between the two main communities in that characterizes Catalonian citizenry. Specifically, we con- Catalonia. We do that by bringing extensive data of surveys sidered, for each survey, the qualitative variables Family/Mother collected from 2006 to 2019 by the official Catalan survey agency language and the binary variable Follow news on public regional (CEO Barometer). The longitudinal analyses of variations of the media (TV or radio, under control of Regional Government) or main variable, namely “sense of belonging” feelings (from “Only not, variable that we can refer hereafter as News (See at SI Catalan” to “Only Spanish” distinctive national identities, as Appendix the Detailed Survey Questions studied). defined through the five categories at the surveys), may add We were fully aware of the limits and restrictions we adopted important clues to the unsolved discussion about plausible in our analyses of an obviously multi-causal phenomenon. sources of the building of what is now a souterrain confrontation Among the ‘stories' offered by different options regarding seces- (Barrio and Field, 2018; Elliott, 2018; Maza et al., 2019; Tormos sion, citizens can ‘opt' for one of them for many reasons: some et al., 2014). We will focus first on variations of sense of belonging related to their entourage—family, friends, co-workers, even their feelings in two significant segments of Catalan citizens, those own random histories; others, from current economic hardships whose family language is Catalan vs. those whose family language or affective/ideological affinities; others from information is Spanish. This is mandatory since previous findings either from received through the media or social networks, and so on. survey data or from electoral results had established the priority Therefore, to be able to discern the causes of the changing trends of this ethnolinguistic cleavage rooted on ascendancy origins in this issue, a detailed and systematic follow-up of specific (Cuadras-Morató and Rodon, 2018; Maza et al., 2019; Miley, individuals would be necessary, an information that it is not 2007, 2013; Oller et al., 2019a, 2019b). Secondly, we will assess the available. evolving changes of sense of belonging depending on media fol- Hence, due to the nature of our data we decided to limit lowing preferences—whether the official TV and Radio controlled ourselves to study significant stochastic dependencies between by the Regional Government (broadcasting exclusively in Catalan variables: just a strictly statistical work (descriptive plus correla- language), vs. other TV and Radios, because in previous studies tional), although it is true that, in this context, high stochastic we and others had shown the importance of this variable (Garcia, associations might suggest plausible explanations of the 2013; Tobeña, 2017; Oller and Satorra, 2017; Oller et al., mechanisms that shaped the observed trends. Subsequent 2019a, 2019b). Since media and language are closely interrelated explorations of these associations would require accruing other within the region, our analysis will address an exciting issue, data and other mathematical tools. To our view, the so-called namely the language acting as a protective umbrella from pro- 'statistical causal models’ assess ‘causal' relationships only under a paganda from the other side. theoretical frame or hypothesis that are external to statistics. We Through detailed analyses of trend variations of “sense of do not pre-assume a theory, so our emphasis in this paper is to belonging” (national identity feelings), across the whole devel- exploit a rich database to unveiling significant associations that opment of the secessionist push, we wanted to explore the rele- should shed light on the plausibility of alternative theoretical vance of some “turning points” linked to recognizable induction frames or hypothesis. Other analysis could be pursued incor- events. In this way, we expected to disclose patterns of data which porating other type of data, to study the likelihood of alternative may help to discern between bottom-up vs. top-down pathways explanatory models. about the sources of the conflict. We finally foresee that our detailed, systematic and mostly descriptive/correlational statistical evidence can work as starting point to further searches looking Longitudinal changes of national identity feelings and lin- for more fully substantive explanations of this unexpected, serious guistic groups. We estimated first, the distinctive percentages of and stagnated political crises at the heart of Europe. “sense of belonging” (national identity feelings), an essential underlying variable of the phenomenon studied, in the overall population and in different family language groups, obtained Methods from survey samples, with some supplied weights if necessary. As To study the changing evolution of secessionist vs. unionist already stated the sample sizes of the 45 surveys analyzed oscil- strength among Catalonian citizenry we worked exclusively with lated between 2500 and 1500 citizens each (autumn 2017 survey data obtained by C.E.O. Barometers (the official survey agency of had only 1338 citizens), and we had a total of 88.538 respondents. the Regional Government), along the period 2006–2019. This The standard deviations of conditional distributions (sense of data was supplied in open access from March 2006 to the present belonging conditioned to family/mother language ) for samples and includes the totality of biannual/triannual systematic surveys between 2500 and 1500 for the main population segments (25% that CEO launches with high regularity. The sample sizes of of the population or more), oscillated from 2.5% to 1%. 45 surveys analyzed oscillated between 2500 and 1500 citizens We then plotted the longitudinal changes of national identity each, with the exception of autumn 2017 survey which had only feelings between 2006 and 2019 in the overall population 1338 citizens. We had thus a total of 88.538 respondents. distinguishing also by the main family/mother language groups: Our research focus (longitudinal opinion trends about the issue the Catalan-group (34.9% was the size of this linguistic group at of secession) is a multifaceted phenomenon that can be quantified the last survey, July 2019) and the Spanish-group (57.3% was its by many variables, among others by “Sense of Belonging” size, at that survey). For the sake of clarity, we decide to plot only (National Identity Feelings), “Preferences for political links with the more frequent identity feelings in each linguistic group: Spain”, “Affirmative/Negative answers on a legal referendum people who considered both languages, Spanish and Catalan, as about secession” and others. We selected “National Identity their family/mother languages (4.1% was the size of this linguistic Feelings” as our main target because it was studied in the whole group at July 2019 survey) exhibited an intermediate behavior. series of CEO surveys and does not depend on changing political We added also a smooth 95% confidence band based on a labels that may distort the results. Findings on “Preferences for generalized additive model implemented through the R package political links between Catalonia and Spain” and explicit “Sup- mgcv (Wood et al., 2016; Hastie and Tibshirani, 1990). port/Reject of secession” in a hypothetic referendum of inde- Furthermore, in the plots, we marked also historical events that pendence are briefly presented as well at Supplementary might have been relevant to understand the evolution of the Information (SI). We explored the relationship between our main studied variables along the period. These events were: the date PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms 3 ARTICLE PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z when a new Home Rule was approved (New Statute); the Notice that there were two sources of randomness: one resolution of the High Spanish Court (Tribunal Constitutional- corresponding to the sample procedure and another correspond- TC) that sanctioned 14 articles (over 223) as contrary to the ing to the political and communicative events along the period: Spanish Constitution and restricted the preamble and another 27 we used a linear model as a simple way to deal with both sources articles (June, 2010); the peak protests of the social 15M of variability, just as an approximation, introducing Time (in movement (15M Peak Protests, June 2011); the regional elections years, from 2006) to try to capture potential trends and checking of November 25, 2012 (25N); the illegal consultation about the global adequacy of this approach examining the standard independence of November 9, 2014 (9N); the regional elections of output supplied by the function lm of R package stats. We supply September 27, 2015 (27S); the illegal referendum about secession, also a graphic plot illustrating the dependence of each percentage October 1, 2017 (1 Oct) and the regional elections, December 21, (‘only Catalan’ and ‘equal Spanish than Catalan’) with respect to 2017 (21D). Time covariate, in each one of the four levels determined by both Additionally, in order to identify important change points factors. We did as well a bivariate version of these analysis, detected in the series, we used the R package ecp designed for considering both variables. Most of the results of this analysis can nonparametric multiple change point analysis of multivariate be found at SI Appendix. data (James and Matteson, 2013, 2014), which implements a Finally, also at SI, we supply a summary of relevant percentages divisive hierarchical algorithm to detect reasonable change points, of national identity feelings at specific relevant moments: the through a bisection method and a permutation test. We worked initial and final values, on the period 2006–2018, and these at 0.025 significance level and demanding at least six observa- percentages immediately before and after the regional elections at tions, from 1.75 to 2 years, between change points. The change 25th November 2012 (Table SI-6). points obtained using this approach are indicated as vertical red lines in the figures. These change points were obtained using the complete profile of national identity feelings of the groups: from 2D dynamic profile diagram. To compare the evolution of the those who self-considered Only Spanish to those who self- groups obtained considering family/mother language (Catalan diagnosed as Only Catalans, including also the class of DK/NA vs. Spanish) and whether news were followed or not through the (do not know or no answer). Hence, they are multivariate results regional public media (Regional vs. Others), we could analyze although the series showed the evolution of main profiles of each the plot series of all percentages of “Sense of belonging” for each linguistic group. one of them. These groups would be: A (family/mother language Catalan, following news in public regional media), B (family/ mother language Catalan, not following news in public regional Longitudinal changes of national identity feelings, linguistic media), C (family/mother language Spanish, following news in groups and regional public media. We studied also the evolution public regional media) and D (family/mother language Spanish, of these national identity feelings considering not only family/ not following news in public regional media); but this would mother language but also a dichotomous variable constructed have required plotting 4 × 6 = 24 series of distinctive percen- taking into account whether the news were followed or not tages of “Sense of belonging”, along the period. We present through regional public media (TV channel TV3, and radio sta- instead a synthetic two-dimensional Dynamic Profile Diagram tion Catalunya Radio). First, we plotted the evolution of national (of Sense of Belonging, in this case) through the period 2006 identity feeling ‘Only Catalan’ in the four groups of the Catalo- −2019. Essentially, it is a two dimensional (2D) Multi- nian population obtained crossing the two main categories of dimensional Scaling (MDS) representation of the abstract space Family/mother language (Catalan vs. Spanish) with the dichot- of Sense of Belonging profiles, using the Hellinger distance omous variable News (with also two levels, according to whether (Burbea and Rao, 1982). Each one of the four groups, at a the news were followed at regional public media or not). The particular time, is represented firstas a pointonthe above obtained graphics allow to compare the different evolution of mentioned (six dimensional) abstract space and then, though these groups. Secondly, we have obtained the same graphics but the MDS techniques, as a point on a 2D-plot. Since each of these with the national identity feeling ‘equal Spanish than Catalan’ in four points are not fixed, they apparently ‘move’ as Sense of the same groups as before and comparing their evolution. belonging feelings change, then we may connect them in the plot We additionally analyzed this data, as an approximation, to facilitate viewing the change along time. Therefore, the evo- through the perspective of Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA). lution of profiles at different time points is seen as a continuous For the sake of simplicity, we started with two ordinary univariate broken line, for each group, in the 2D representation. This analysis and continued with a combination of them in a bivariate graphic provides a simple overall summary of the joint evolution version of MANCOVA, that we shall describe hereafter. At the of the various groups. More technical details of this MDS graph start, we considered two factors for both analysis whose levels can be found at SI. were the different possible values of the qualitative variable family/mother language (with two levels corresponding to the main linguistic groups: Catalan and Spanish) and the dichot- Other variables. We repeated the analysis on another qualitative omous variable News (with also two levels, according to whether variable: Preferences for political link between Catalonia and the news were followed at regional public media or not), using Spain, whose values indicated preferences for a centralized state Time (from 2006) as a covariate and considering as dependent (Catalonia as a Region), actual status quo (Home Rule, CA), an variable the percentages of those who feel ‘only Catalan’, for the explicit federal solution (Federal) or an independent state first analysis, or ‘equal Spanish than Catalan’, for the second one. (Independent Catalonia), considering also DK/NA options. The Since the interaction between factors was highly significant, to results come at SI. Furthermore, the positive/negative explicit facilitate the analysis we built a new factor, Group, with four answers in the event of a hypothetic legal referendum about levels, combining the two levels of Family/mother language factor secession from Spain were also analyzed (see SI). This was a and both levels of the factor News. We have used this factor to qualitative variable with three possible outcomes: Yes, No and replace the previously mentioned original binary factors in the DK/NA, reproducing the approach and contrasts of the main final analysis. methods exposed. 4 PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z ARTICLE Ethical approval. All the data for this research came from the C. National identity feeling variable. In that year, the dual national E.O. Barometers, the official survey agency of the Regional identity group ‘Equal Spanish than Catalan’ initiates an abrupt Government, complying with the full legal Spanish requirements descend to nearly 17 percentage points (not yet recovered), while and restrictions to conduct sociological studies about voting single national identity feeling group ‘Only-Catalan’ initiates an behavior and political opinion, and in accordance to the ESO- abrupt escalation of roughly 20 points (not yet reversed). Such a MAR International Code on Market, Opinion and Social Research change in groups that are critical for cohesion of the whole society and Data Analytics. All the statistical analyses included in this call for further inspection involving other variables. paper fulfilled, in addition, the conditions established by the To deepen the analysis, we studied National Identity Feelings in Ethical Commissions of the University of Barcelona, Pompeu different population segments, obtained through another quali- Fabra University and the Autonomous University of Barcelona tative variable: Family/Mother language (surveys used slightly for treatment of human data, when their original source are different questions to address that, along the period, see SI surveys made by official agencies or private firms under specific Appendix). This is a qualitative variable whose main values are external regulations with due guarantees. An ethics approval was either Catalan language or Spanish language that represented the not required for this secondary analysis of the data, as per the 34.9% and 57.3% of the total population respectively, at the last authors’ institutions and national regulations. survey studied, July 2019 (see Fig. 2). The remaining cases were people who answered both Spanish and Catalan languages as family/mother languages. They represented 4.1% of the popula- tion at the last survey. Other cases were negligible. Results Longitudinal changes. We considered first the profiles of the The small group whose family/mother language was ‘Both’ (Spanish and Catalan), exhibited an intermediate behavior, so its variable National Identity Feelings (Sense of Belonging) along the whole period, 2006–2019 (see Fig. 1). This is a qualitative variable graph has been omitted for the sake of brevity. For the Catalan- group (family/mother language), the detected change points with six distinct values: Only Spanish (Spn), More Spanish than Catalan (Spn>Cat), Equal Spanish than Catalan (Spn=Cat), More (considering profiles of all sense of belonging feelings) appeared between the second and the third CEO 2010 Barometer (as a Catalan than Spanish (Cat>Spn), Only Catalan (Cat) and DK/NA decimal number approx. 2010.4), and the second and third CEO (do not know or no answers). Percentages were estimated from 45 surveys over the period 2006–2019 on samples of sizes 2012 Barometer (as a decimal number 2012.65). For the Spanish- group (family/mother language), the detected change points between 2500 and 1500 persons (one survey, at 2017, with 1338 only), with a total number of 88.538 respondents. In all, there was (considering also profiles of all sense of belonging) were between the second and the third CEO 2011 Barometers (as a decimal a total increase of 13 percentage points of those who feel ‘only Catalans’ and a fall of 7 percentage points of Catalan citizens who number 2011.65), and the second and the third CEO 2013 Barometers (as a decimal number 2013.7). The more striking feel ‘equal Catalan than Spanish’, signaling a substantial variation towards decreasing the relevance of dual CatSpanish National changes appeared within the Catalan-group (as defined by family/ mother language), in particular around the regional elections of Identity feelings. Such variations (Fig. 1) attained magnitudes that clearly exceeded 15 percentage points at some points, on both 25th Nov. 2012. The marks in these plots signal events that might have been directions, along the whole period. The more remarkable facts in Fig. 1 are the changes that arise relevant to understand the evolution of the variables along the period (see Methods). The crucial change points detected by the in around 2012 on the size of two critical segments defined by this Fig. 1 Longitudinal changes of National Identity Feelings across the period 2006–2019, for all Catalonian population. Each band shows the evolution of proportions for each national identity feeling (percentages) across the whole period. DK/NA omitted. Bands based on 95% smooth confidence intervals. PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms 5 ARTICLE PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z Fig. 2 Longitudinal changes of National Identity Feelings, across the period 2006–2019, depending on language segmentation. Two Catalonian population segments are considered. UP:a refers to citizens with Family/Mother language Catalan (at July 2019 survey: 34.9% of all Catalonian population). Down: b refers to citizens with Family/Mother language Spanish (at July 2019 survey: 57.3% of all Catalonian population). Bands based on 95% smooth confidence intervals. package ecp, as explained above, were marked as red lines within radio that broadcast exclusively in Catalan language) or through the plots. other media. This variable, which will be referred as News,is dichotomous reaching only two possible values: Regional or Other. We directed our focus (see Fig. 3) to the sense of belonging The effects of following news on public regional media.To ‘Only Catalan’ for the Catalan-group (as defined by family/ obtain a more detailed picture of the evolution of sense of mother language) and for the Spanish-group (also defined by belonging in the main linguistic groups we analyzed the relevance family/mother language). of another variable constructed taking into account the answers of There were abrupt changes in the sense of belonging ‘Only following the news either through regional public media (TV or Catalan’ along the period, clearly dependent on their family/ 6 PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z ARTICLE Fig. 3 Longitudinal changes of the National Identity Feeling “Only Catalan” across the period 2006–2019, depending on language and media news segmentations. The size of this identification type went from 14.2% of all Catalonian population at March 2006 survey, up to 23.5% at July 2019. The four bands correspond to the four citizenry segments obtained crossing the two main categories of Family/Mother language (Catalan vs. Spanish) with the binary variable News (Regional vs. other), depending on whether the news are followed in regional media or not. Bands based on 95% smooth confidence intervals. The fitted lines, one for each group, is a linear model fit. Observe the contrast between the biggest group (Family/mother language Spanish, not following news on regional media: 44.8% at last survey, in green), and the Family/mother language Catalan group who followed news on regional media (21.5%, at last survey, in red). Notice also the different slopes of regression lines indicating distinctive trends. Moreover, the regression lines corresponding to Spanish language subgroups (green and blue) intersect around the year 2006 and we may conjecture, by extrapolating, that the Catalan subgroups (red and purple) should have had a similar behavior in a recent past, around the year 2000. The sizes of blue and purple segments were smaller: 12.5% and 13.4%, respectively, at last survey. mother language but also dependent on having been exposed to 2D dynamic profile diagram. The four subgroups obtained by follow the news in regional public media or not (Fig. 3). The distinguishing family/mother language (Catalan vs. Spanish) and relevance of these where examined through a standard Analysis of whether news were followed in regional public media or other- Covariance. The dependent variable is the percentage of sense of wise, are represented in different colors and letters (see Fig. 5 and belonging ‘Only Catalan’ considering a factor Group (four levels) SI). At a particular time (a survey), each group is represented as a and Time (year) as a covariate. The Group factor and the colored point in the 2D-plot, whose position indicates the profiles interactions were highly significant (see SI). Furthermore, of Sense of belonging feelings corresponding to this group. The comparing the slope of the regression lines, we find that all the evolution of each group through time is explicitly showed joining slopes are significantly different with the exception of the slopes the consecutive points of the group resulting in a continuous of two groups: family/mother language Spanish who follow news colored broken line in the 2D-plot. Relevant dates in the period in public regional media and family/mother language Catalan 2006–2019 are also indicated, with the 25N event (2012) marked who follow news in other media; all the other levels exhibit highly in black. To correctly interpret the plot, different National iden- significant different slopes (p-values obtained by Tukey method tity feelings are also represented simultaneously as points in less than 0.0001). See Table SI-2 for more details. magenta color, with arrows indicating that if we move closer to Thesameanalysisofcovarianceisrepeatedconsidering as a these points, the corresponding identity feelings increase, since dependent variable the percentage of sense of belonging ‘Equal these arrows are the projection of the gradient vector field of the pffiffiffiffi Spanish than Catalan’ (see Fig. 4), with the same factor Group and mapsðÞ p ; ¼ ; p 7!2 p at some convenient points near the 1 6 i Time as covariate, as before. The effects of Group factor and the point which corresponds to a population segment with 100% of interactions were highly significant (see SI). Moreover, comparing people with the i-th identity feeling. The length of these arrows the slope of the regression lines, we can get the different effects of also depends of projection: the longer the arrow, the more media at the four levels of Group factor. Notice that with the important will be the role of the corresponding variable to exception of the slope between both family/mother language Catalan interpret group variability. subgroups, all other levels exhibited very significantly different slopes As can be seen adding the % of explained variance of the x and (p-values obtained by Tukey method less/equal than 0.0061, most of y axis of the graph 94.1% of the total variability is well represented them less than 0.0001). See Table SI-4 for more details. in this 2D-plot. Notice also that the evolution of three of these To complete the analysis, we considered both dependent four groups evolved similarly by increasing their national identity variables simultaneously (MANCOVA), obtaining that both feelings ‘Only Catalan’ and ‘More Catalan than Spanish’,or Group factor, the covariate Time and the interactions were highly decreasing the feeling ‘Equal Spanish than Catalan’ (Catalan or significant (see also SI). Spanish linguistic subgroups following news through public PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms 7 ARTICLE PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z Fig. 4 Longitudinal changes of the National Identity Feeling “Equal Catalan than Spanish” across the period 2006–2019, depending on language and media news segmentations. The size of this identification type went from 42.5% at March 2006 survey, to 39.2% at July 2019. The four bands correspond to the four citizenry segments obtained crossing the two main categories of Family/Mother language (Catalan vs. Spanish) with the binary variable News (Regional vs. other), depending on whether the news is followed in regional media or not. Bands based on 95% smooth confidence intervals. The fitted lines, one for each group, is a linear model fit. Observe the contrast between the biggest group (Family/mother language Spanish, not following news on regional media: 44.8% at last survey, in green) and the Family/mother language Catalan segment who followed news on regional media (21.5% at last survey, in red). They exhibited the highest difference. The biggest trend slopes differences occur when comparing the Spanish segments (green and blue). Notice that dark green and blue lines intersected at 2008, indicating that around this year both groups behaved similarly with respect to the dependent variable. The sizes of blue and purple segments were smaller: 12.5% and 13.4%, respectively, last survey. regional media). The Spanish group (family/mother language) By exploiting the microdata of the whole series of repeated who did not follow the news through the public regional media CEO surveys, Fig. 2 displays a fundamental finding. It shows the (approx. 44.8% of the population, at July 2019), was an exception evolution of Sense of belonging (National identity feelings) dif- of this radicalizing trend. This group, after a small oscillation ferentiated into two main citizenry segments: family/mother between 2012 and 2013 (closer in time to 25N event, 2012), language Catalan versus family/mother language Spanish. For the returned almost to its initial position. In the remaining groups the first one there was a striking variation in a short period: an central and remarkable position of 25N 2012 event, is clearly intense erosion of the dual-identity (Spn=Cat, at Figures) and an visible, to the point of an apparent delimitation of two clusters intense increase of the single-identity Only Catalan. Note that, in within each group. Groups B and C appear to be moving, lately, this segment, the single-identity Only Catalan scaled approxi- towards their initial positions. mately 30 percentual points in less than eight years. To our Similar plots were built for preferred political-territorial link knowledge, there are no other examples of such dramatic changes with Spain, to analyze the evolution of preferences about political in national identity within a stable Western society, in such a ties between Catalonia and Spain (See SI Figs. SI-1, SI-2). short period. In contrast, for the segment family/mother language Spanish, the dual-identity (Spn=Cat) continued with nearly no erosion (neither we see appreciable variation towards the single- identity Only Spanish). Figure 1 also documents the sudden Discussion change, around 2012, on national identity of two fractions, Our analyses focused mainly on “Sense of belonging” (National namely the “Equal Catalan than Spanish” and “Only Catalan”, identity feelings) since it is a variable which (a) has been present two population segments that are likely to contribute with invariably in all CEO surveys and (b) has shown dramatic cohesion or division, respectively, within the whole society. The changes along the secessionist surge (the so-called “el procés”) outstanding feature of Figs. 2a, b is the detailed dissection of such (Amat, 2015; Barrio and Field, 2018; Coll et al., 2018; Elliot, important variations, documenting the differences in the evolu- 2018). As argued above, the eruption of the secessionist campaign tion of sense of belonging among these two segments. delimited two periods: long and stable previous decades when This statistical evidence, supported by more than 45 surveys dual-national identity (Sense of belonging: Equal Catalan than amounting to 88.538 observations is striking, given the extended Spanish) was dominant and worked as an amalgamating factor previous period in which no moves were seen on this key, for Catalonian society (Amat, 2015; Elliot, 2018); and the current national identity variable (Tormos et al., 2014; Barrio and Field, one, when an abrupt polarization lead the citizenry into antag- 2018). It is worth noting that the change introduced by CEO, at onistic and confronted blocks, one formed by those with single- 2011, asking for ‘childhood or maternal language' instead of identity Catalan (dominant on the secessionist field), and a sec- ‘family language' may have had some consequences, although ond one where dual-identity Cat-Spanish prevails (dominant on they were not apparent at all in the observed series. Cultivation of the unionist field). 8 PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z ARTICLE Only Spn Spn>Cat * Only Cat (44.8%) 10   B * 11   18  17 15 (13.4%)  2019 7   16 15 16   13 DK/NA 17  . 25N 13 *  18 2019 . 12 . 2019 25N 13 12 17  (21.5%) 25N   8 8 7 7    9 . * *  8 25N 9 11 (12.5%) Spn=Cat Cat>Spn −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 PC1 (87.3%) Fig. 5 2D−Dynamic Profile Diagram of National Identity Feelings across the period 2006–2019. For the four citizenry segments obtained crossing Family/ Mother language (Catalan vs. Spanish) and News (following news on public regional media or not). Group A (red): Family/mother language Catalan, following news on regional media (21.5% at July 2019 survey); Group B (purple): Family/mother language Catalan not following news on regional media (13.4% at July 2019 survey); Group C (blue): Family/mother language Spanish, following news on public regional media (12.5% at July 2019 survey); Group D (green): Family/mother language Spanish not following news on regional media (44.8% at July 2019 survey). This diagram summarizes the evolution of identity profiles for each colored group (24 series of respondent answers coming from 45 surveys, 2006–2019) in a mathematical space in which each point represents the percentages of National Identity Feelings within a group. Notice that Groups A–C suffered a clear displacement in the space of National Identity Feelings pre and post 25N regional elections (November 25th, 2012), in the sense of a greater polarization (‘Only Catalan’ feeling increases when we move to the top-right of the diagram). Group D exhibited a small movement near the event of 25N, but returned to its original position at present. Notice that this group is the biggest one (44.8%, last survey: July 2019). This is a two-dimension reduction with quality of representationof 83% in the x-axes and 6.8% in the y-axis (overall, a quality of representation of 94.1%). double or multilayered national identity feelings has been argued first group, the results are compatible with the hypothesis that a to be preventive for societies harboring unsealed ethno-cultural good number of people with family/mother language Catalan rely frontiers, whereas promoting single-identity national feelings, above all on the regional public media (Garcia, 2013; Tobeña, either only Catalan or only Spanish in this case, can be a source of 2017; Oller et al, 2019a, 2019b) which additionally, broadcast social unrest and potentially serious confrontations (Horowitz, exclusively in Catalan language. A good part of the segment with 2001; Esteban and Ray, 2008; Esteban et al., 2012). In con- family/mother language Catalan follows political news through sequence, it may be wise to invest resources promoting double- these regional public media (it accounts for approximately 21.5% identities. of overall population, at the last survey) and they can become Figures 3, 4 show that following Regional public media (TV disseminators themselves through family/friends networks. This and Radio) under control of Regional Government (both may explain why the group with family/mother language Catalan broadcasting in Catalan language, exclusively) correlated with a that do not follow news in the regional public media is also higher polarization around the issue of secession in the main affected (it accounts for approximately 13.4% of overall popula- language segments, family/mother language Catalan and family/ tion, last survey), albeit in an attenuated way: the growth rate of mother language Spanish, with some differences. Concerning the 'Only Catalan' identity feelings was approximately 2/3 of the PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms 9 PC2 (6.8%) −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 ARTICLE PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z growth rate of those who follow regional public media. The key fact, the definitive point of departure for the secessionist wave, factor is the trust on media that everyone view as ‘familiar' within when Catalonian President at that time (leading a moderate these two segments. Notice the contrasting evolution of red nationalist party) lose the majority at the Autonomous Parlia- (regional public media) vs. purple (other media), for the family/ ment. From that moment onwards, parliamentary majority mother language Catalan group at Figs. 3, 4. depended from various secessionist forces and the Government Concerning the second group, family/mother language Spanish opted for secession from Spain as its dominant strategy (Barrio two facts deserve attention. First, the segment who follow news and Field, 2018; Elliot, 2018). Figure 2 illustrates how, around through public regional media (it accounts for 12.5% approx. of these elections, a segment of citizenry (formed mainly by those overall population, last survey) changed their identity feelings in with family/mother language Catalan and reporting “only Cata- the same direction as the group with family/mother language lan”, as national identity), departed from a previous slowly rising Catalan. However, the family/mother language Spanish segment tendency (Bertomeus, 2018a), towards an abrupt acceleration. who does not follow news through public regional media Percentages peaked on the first (illegal) consultation about (accounting for 44.8% approx. of overall population, last survey) secession (9 Nov 2014), and the rising stabilized at high levels all remained stable, without appreciable changes. Secondly, there was along the struggle between Regional and Spanish powers that an absence of significant polarization at the opposite national persist today. This segment displayed parallel trends on several Identity ‘Only Spanish’. This fact is compatible with the con- measures: national identity feelings (“sense of belonging”); pre- jecture that public regional media were a source of polarizing ferences for political links with Spain (opting for “independence”); inputs, as the remaining media, which broadcast to all Spain, have and expressing support for secession on a hypothetic (and legal) not paid as much attention to regional political crises despite its referendum for self-determination (see SI1-SI2 Figures). Such relevance at particular moments. Figure SI-S4 (see SI) shows the narrowing of national self-identification linked to preferences for absence of intensification of National identity feelings in the secession showed by this group of “Catalan-natives” mainly, was citizenry segment who follow news in Spanish generalist TV not mirrored in the other big segments of citizenry (those with channels broadcasting to all of Spain (it accounts for approxi- either Spanish or both Catalan+Spanish languages as their mately 32.9% of overall population, last survey), independently of family/mother language). These fractions tended to maintain their family/mother language. their dual “CatSpanish” national identities without noticeable Notice the contrasting evolution of blue (regional public changes. Globally, our systematic results confirmed the out- media) vs. dark green (other media), for the family/mother lan- standing polarization around the issue of secession that Llaneras guage Spanish group at Figs. 3, 4. The evolution of identity feelings (2017), Marí-Klose (2018), Bertomeus (2018), Guntermann et al. shown at these Figures, where we interacted family language with (2018), Rodón and Guinjoan (2019), and Maza et al. (2019) had preferences for following Regional media, raises suspicions about already shown departing from a handful of surveying points or the persuasive role played by the contents of public TV and Radio from electoral results. controlled by Autonomous powers. We must highlight the fact Following or not the news on Regional public media was an that the narrowing and intensification on National identity feel- important mediator of changes on National identity feelings ings only occurred in the segment with family/mother language (“sense of belonging”) and for preferences for secession. The Catalan, whereas the segment family/mother language Spanish, strong gaps on media following preferences (news and political larger in size, did not significantly evolved in the opposite debates) based essentially on family-language divisions, surely direction, towards a 'Only Spanish' identity. This contributes to contributed to exaggerate distinctive communal affections and diminish the chances of an open conflict. The erosion of dual- frames of reference at both sides of the ethnolinguistic frontier: identity feelings within these segments would be a loss of the Catalans vs. CatSpanish. TV channels, newspapers and broad- amalgamating capital of a citizenry that shares the same territory casting stations which are directly or indirectly under control of (in Catalonia, this means usually face to face doors). the Regional Government not only dominated but fully encap- Two recognizable “turning points” signaled clear departures sulated the secessionist audiences operating only or mostly, in towards distinctive polarization profiles among those segments of Catalan language. This represents an obvious mismatch as Catalan citizenship subgroups. The first one appeared shortly Spanish is the language of daily use of more than half of Catalan before the sentence of the Spanish High Court, at 2010, modifying citizens, thus reflecting the operation of a “communication bub- the Autonomy Statute that had been approved at 2006. A second ble” that nourished the secessionist fraction: middle class natives and much more important one was the decision taken by the and assimilated citizens who use Catalan language almost moderate nationalist party that had been leading the Regional exclusively, in their daily routines and get their political opinion Government, for decades, of adopting a secessionist agenda mainly from regional/local media (Barrio and Field, 2018; Coll around autumn 2012. In his systematic comparison between the et al., 2018; Miley, 2007, 2013; Crameri, 2014, 2015; Tobeña, lawful and agreed Scottish bid for independence (preceding the 2017a; Rodon and Guinjoan, 2018). Despite unsolved discussions 2014 referendum), and the unlawful and unilateral at Catalonia, on the relative power of media to modify social opinion, there is Elliot (2018) identified the same “breaking points”. Our plots agreement on their influence upon segmented audiences (Quat- show that the appearance of the first one contradicts the depiction trociocchi et al., 2011, 2014, Shoemaker and Stremlau, 2014). of Catalonian secessionist push as an outrage reaction against the Before the dawn of secessionist surge, Miley (2007) established “deep grievance” of the sentence from High Spanish Court, the existence of divergent modes of national identification across modifying a few articles the 2006 new Statute of Autonomy that the main segments of Catalan society that depended on an eth- had been voted by a minority of citizens. Pro-secession polar- nolinguistic frontier. Departing from CIS surveys and other ization within a fraction of citizenry had already started before social data, he challenged the depiction of Catalonian nationalism such sentence. This is compatible with the conjecture that the as a form of “civic nationalism.” He showed that Catalan society impact of the TC sentence about the new Home Rule was relevant contained an ethnolinguistic cleavage that distinguished self- mainly to the extent that it has been used, extensively, as a identification of two main population segments: “native, Catalan political weapon to invigorate secessionist activism and increase speaking” citizens and their Spanish-speaking neighbors with polarization . immigrant origins from other parts of Spain. “Mother tongue” Much more decisive was, however, the period leading to the had, in fact, the strongest impact upon an individual’s self- regional elections at 25th Nov 2012. Such elections marked, in identification as predominantly Catalan vs. predominantly 10 PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z ARTICLE Spanish o mixed “CatSpanish” identities. In subsequent studies, contextual intimidation to keep silent the majority of citizenry Miley (2013) showed that there was a gap between political (Barrio and Field, 2018; Morel, 2018; Tobeña, 2017a, 2018). Our preferences of wide segments of citizenry and those of their findings indicate that family language has worked as a dividing representatives at the Autonomous Parliament: the language line but also as a protective umbrella to preserve a mixed Cat- policy implemented by Regional powers was inconsistent with Spanish national identity, during a period of relentless social preferences of Spanish-speaking citizens. He identified, moreover, pressure coming from secessionist activism and local media. two mechanisms that blocked their representation into the Other types of social influence were used extensively, with the aim Region’s institutions: (1) a clear under-representation of those of deepening political polarization. A large-scale analysis pro- citizens in the Autonomous Parliament; and (2) a partial assim- vided solid evidence that during the 2017 illegal “referendum” for ilation of some Spanish-speaking elected politicians into the Catalonian independence, analyzed as a case study, social bots attitudes of Catalan-speaking rulers. He concluded that the social generated and promoted violent content, aimed mainly at the bases of support for Catalan nationalism were “overwhelmingly secessionist population segment (Stella et al., 2018). Nearly 4 ethnic” and that the movement was an elite-led, “top down” million Twitter posts, on that issue, generated by almost 1 million project. The present findings add likelihood to that hypothesis, users were monitored and analyzed during two weeks around since we see that the ethnolinguistic factor is highly associated to such event. The findings clearly indicated that automated social distinctive polarization during the secessionist surge. Divergent hacking contributed to exacerbate a severe political conflict. polarizing profiles associated also to differential exposures to the In conclusion, the present findings showed that an ethno- media under control of Regional powers. linguistic cleavage based mainly on family/mother language Boylan (2015) had already shown, that national identity (being (Catalan vs. Spanish) worked as a dividing line for a serious Catalan native or assimilated) was a much stronger predictor of political confrontation between secessionists and unionists. This the desire for secession, than perceived grievances resulting from is the first complete quantitative analyses of the distinctive evo- an unfair fiscal treatment or other economic and political factors lution of National identity feelings among those population seg- (analyzing CEO surveys, 2011–2013). Applying different statistical ments, during the period 2006–2019. The findings underscore the methods both Bel et al. (2019) and Romero-Vidal (2019) have crucial role played by media influence to accentuate political emphasized the inability of important contextual factors to explain polarization and partisanship around the issue of secession. They the surge and maintenance of Catalonian secessionist push: nei- provide a workable example of how ethnolinguistic frontiers can ther the impact of the deep economic crisis between 2008–2013 or be used as fracture line for divisive conflict within an advanced, the evolution of preferences for policy attitudes at the Region, open and democratic European context. We suspect that there are along the whole period 1991–2018, were able to convincingly still political avenues to be pursued, with the aim of preventing explain the appearance of intense and sustained demands for full the conversion of the ongoing secessionist challenge, in Catalonia, sovereignty. In this regard, the present findings may represent an into a chronic and intractable ethno-political conflict. Departing initial step for more extensive and fruitful approaches to an from objective and thorough statistical data could be, perhaps, a unexpected and mostly not yet explained secession crisis. good starting point for giving chances to encompassing instead of The highest achievement of the secessionist movement was the divisive and dangerous polarizing policies. creation of an intense devotion for the goal of Catalonian inde- pendence, to the point of carrying the emphatic characteristics of Data availability a collective romantic passion that engaged an impressive segment As already stated our primary data are public and easily accesible of citizenry (Tobeña, 2017a). Such passion hardly enticed, how- at CEO web (Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió, http://ceo.gencat.cat/). In ever, the rest of Catalan population. The ingroup self-glorification addition to the data provided both at Main Text and SI sections, ingredients conveyed by such nationalistic passion excluded, by many other analytical and graphic results were obtained for the definition, other actors within the region (Roccas et al., 2006; period 2006–2019. In particular, all series of mosaic plots derived Leidner et al., 2010; Waytz et al., 2014). Fulfilling a dream for by crossing different pairs of variables. All of them can be sup- reaching full sovereignty by agreed and democratic pathways plied by the authors to interested readers on demand. requires a clear majority, but Catalan secessionists appeared convinced that they deserved a swift and easy separation from Received: 2 May 2019; Accepted: 29 October 2019; Spain on the bases of a tiny parliamentary (non-social) majority. This belief might perhaps derive from “collective narcissism” (Golec de Zavala et al., 2009, 2019), a propensity that amounts to a conviction in the greatness of one’s group accompanied by demands of external validation. Those narcissists typically Notes demand privileged recognition and treatment, not equal rights. 1 We use the label “Unionists” to identify the citizenry who is against secession, for Recent findings indicated that national collective narcissism practical reasons. This label permits an immediate understanding of the opposing mediated voting behavior in the Unites States: besides intense postures. We are fully aware that some anti-secession forces prefer the term partisanship (Mason, 2018), this trait was a main factor pre- “Constitutionalists” or “Non-secessionists” because “Unionism” carries, in Catalonia, a deprecating tone and can be used as an insult during hot political debates. dicting Trump victory in the 2016 US election (Golec de Zavala 2 Catalan language is mandatory, as first language, at primary school and most of high et al., 2017). Collective narcissism also mediated Brexit 2016 vote, school (See: “Usos lingüístics de la població de Catalunya: Enquesta 2013, Generalitat at UK (Federico and Golec de Zavala, 2018), along with other de Catalunya: Departament de Cultura, http://llengua.gencat.cat/web/.content/ cognitive mediators (Zmigrod et al., 2018). Specific studies on this documents/publicacions/altres/arxius/eulp2013_fullet.pdf.) issue would be required that should encompass not only Cata- 3 CEO (Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió, http://ceo.gencat.cat/). lonian secessionists but also people from recently reactivated 4 Until summer 2011 the survey question explicitly asked for ‘family language’, after that for ‘childhood language in the family’, see more details at SI Appendix. pockets of Spanish nationalism. 5 See SI and Oller et al. 2019b: a less technical essay directed to a general audience, on The lack of a social majority behind the secessionist push similar targets as the present one but involving a smaller data set and with more opened apprehensions that had been tampered for decades emphasis on economic aspects. (Amat, 2015, 2017; Coll et al., 2018; Crameri, 2014; Elliott, 2018), 6 CIS (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/index. and it is hard to foresee pathways to defuse current tensions. The html). pressure applied by the secessionist field included many forms of PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms 11 ARTICLE PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z References Matteson DS, James NA (2014) A nonparametric approach for multiple change Amat J (2015) El llarg procés: cultura i política a la Catalunya contemporània point analysis of multivariate data. J Am Stat Assoc 109(505):334–345. (1937–2014). Tusquets, Barcelona https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2013.849605 Amat J (2017) La conjura de los irresponsables. Anagrama, Barcelona Maza A, Villaverde J, Hierro M (2019) The 2017 Regional Election in Catalonia: an Barceló-Soler J (2013) The battle for secession: Catalonia versus Spain. J Politic attempt to understand the pro-independence vote. Econom Política 36:1–18 Inquiry 1:1–11 Miley ThJ (2007) Against the thesis of the "civic nation": the case of Catalonia in Barrio A, Rodríguez-Teruel J (2017) Reducing the gap between leaders and voters? contemporary Spain. Nationalism Ethn Politics 13:1–37 Elite polarization, outbidding competition, and the rise of secessionism in Miley ThJ (2013) Blocked articulation and nationalist hegemony in Catalonia. Catalonia. Ethn Racial Stud 40(10):1776–1794 Regional Fed Stud 23(1):7–26 Barrio A, Field BN (2018) The push for independence in Catalonia. Nat Hum Minder R (2017) The struggle for Catalonia: rebel politics in Spain, London: Hurst Behav 2:713–715 and Co. Bel G, Cuadras-Morató X, Rodon (2019) Crisis? What crisis? Economic recovery Morel S (2018) En el huracán catalán, Barcelona:Planeta and support for independence in Catalonia, Regional Science Policy and Oller JM, Satorra A (2017) Toward an index of political toxicity. BEIO 33 Practice. https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12236 (2):163–182. http://www.seio.es/BBEIO/BEIOVol33Num2/index.html#86 Bertomeus O (2018) ¿Sigue Cataluña siendo “un sol poble”? Agenda Pública 3:5 Oller JM, Satorra A, Tobeña A (2019a) Secessionists vs. Unionists in Catalonia: Bertomeus O (2018a) El terratrèmol silenciós: relleu generacional i transformació mood, emotional profiles and beliefs about secession perspectives in two del comportament electoral a Catalunya. Eumo Ed, Vic confronted communities. Psychology 10:336–357. https://doi.org/10.4236/ Boylan BM (2015) In pursuit of independence: the political economy of Catalonia’s psych.2019.103024 secessionist movement. Nation Nationalism 21:761–785 Oller JM, Satorra A, Tobeña A (2019b) Pathways and legacies of the secessionist Burbea J, Rao CR (1982) Entropy differential metric, distance and divergence measures push in Catalonia: linguistic frontiers, economic segments and media roles in probability spaces: a unified approach. J Multivar Anal 12(4):575–596 within a divided society, Policy Network Papers, Oct. (https://policynetwork. Castano E (2008) On the perils of glorifying the in-group: intergroup violence, in- org/publications/papers/pathways-and-legacies-of-the-secessionist-push-in- group glorification and moral disengagement. Personal Soc Psychol Compass catalonia/). 2(1):154–170 Quattrociocchi W, Conte R, Lodi E (2011) Opinions manipulation: media, power Crameri K (2014) Goodbye Spain? The Question of Independence for Catalonia. and gossip. Adv Complex Syst 14:567–586 Sussex Academic Press, Eastbourne Quattrociocchi W, Caldarelli G, Scala A (2014) Opinion dynamics on interacting Crameri K (2015) Political power and civil counterpower: the complex dynamics of networks: media competition and social influence. Sci Rep 4:4938 the Catalan independence movement. Nationalism Ethn Polit 21:104–120 Qvortrup M (2014) Referendums and Ethnic Conflict. University of Pennsylvania Coll J, Molina I, Arias-Maldonado M (eds.) (2018) Anatomía del procés. Debate, Press, Philadelphia Madrid OEC Group (2017) La Cataluña immune al procès. SCC, Barcelona. https://www. Cuadras-Morató X, Rodon T (2018) The dog that didn’t bark: on the effect of the societatcivilcatalana.cat/sites/default/files/docs/La-Cataluna-inmune-vf.pdf Great Recession on the surge of secessionism. Ethnic Racial Stud 1–20 Roccas S, Klar Y, Leviatan I (2006) The paradox of group-based guilt: modes of Dowling A (2018) The rise of Catalan independence: Spain’s territorial crisis. national identification, conflict vehemence, and reactions to the in-group’s Routdlege, New York moral violations. J Personal Soc Psychol 91(4):698–711 Elliot JH (2018) Scots and Catalans: union and disunion. Yale University Press, Rodon T, Guinjoan M (2018) When the context matters: identity, secession and the New Haven spatial dimension in Catalonia. Political Geogr 63:75–87 Esteban J, Ray D (2008) On the salience of ethnic conflict. Am Econ Rev 98 Romero-Vidal X (2019) Two temperatures for one thermostat: the evolution of (5):2185–2202 policy attitudes and suport for independence in Catalonia 1991-2018. Nation Esteban J, Mayoral L, Ray D (2012) Ethnicity and conflicts: theory and facts. Nationalism. https://doi.org/10.1111/nana.12559 Science 336:858–865 Serrano I (2013) Just a matter of identity?: support for independence in Catalonia. Federico ChM, Golec de Zavala A (2018) Collective Narcissism and the 2016 Regional Fed Stud 23(5):523–545 United States Presidential Vote. Public Opin Q 82(1):110–121 Sidanius J, Feshbach S, Levin S, Pratto F (1997) The interface between ethnic and Garcia C (2013) Strategic communication applied to nation building in Spain: the national attachment: ethnic pluralism or ethnic dominance? Public Opin Q experience of the Catalan Region. Public Relat Rev 39:558–562 61(1):102–133 Golec de Zavala A, Cichocka A, Eidelson R, Jayawickreme N (2009) Collective Shoemaker E, Stremlau N (2014) Media and conflict: an assessment of evidence. narcissism and its social consequences. J Personal Soc Psychol 97:1074–1096 Prog Dev Stud 14(2):181–195 Golec de Zavala A, Guerra R, Simao C (2017) The Relationship between the Brexit Sorens J (2005) The cross-sectional determinants of secessionism in advanced vote and individual predictors of prejudice: collective narcissism, right-wing democracies. Comp Political Stud 38:304–326 authoritarianism and social dominance orientation. Front Psychol 8:2023. Stella M, Ferrara E, De Domenico M (2018) Bots increase exposure to negative and https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.02023 inflammatory content in online social systems. PNAS 115:12435–12440. Golec de Zabala A, Dyduch-Hazar K, Lantos D (2019) Collective narcissism: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1803470115 political consequences of investing self-worth in the ingroup’s image. Political Tobeña A (2017) Secessionist urges in Catalonia: media indoctrination and social Psychol 40(S1):37–74 pressure effects. Psychology 8:77–96 Griffiths RD, Guillén-Alvarez P, Martínez Coma F (2015) Between the sword and Tobeña A (2017a) La pasión secesionista: psicobiología del independentismo. the wall: Spain’s limited options for Catalan secessionism. Nation National- EDLibros, Barcelona ism 21:43–61 Tobeña A (2018) Entrenched Catalonia: a secessionist venture trapped on an Guntermann E, Blais A, Lago I, Guinjoan M (2018) A study of voting behaviour in ethnopolitical draw. Psychology 9:460–471 an exceptional context: the 2017 Catalan election study. Eur Political Sci, Tormos R, Muñoz J, Hierro MJ (2014) Endogenous identities? How the inde- https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-018-0173-8 pendence debate is reshaping Catalans’ identity. IBEI Workshop The Politics Hastie T, Tibshirani R (1990) Generalized Additive Models. Chapman and Hall, of Identity Adoption, Barcelona, http://www.cuimpb.cat/files/TormosMu% London C3%B1ozHierro_EndogenousIdentities.pdf Horowitz D (2001) The deadly ethnic riot. University of California Press, Berkeley Von Babel JJ, Pereira A (2018) The partisan brain: an identity-based model of James NA Matteson DS (2013) ecp: R package Nonparametr Mult change point political belief. Trends Cogn Sci 22(3):213–223 Anal Multivar data, arXiv 1309:3295, http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/ Waytz A, Young LL, Ginges J (2014) Motive attribution asimmetry for love vs. hate 2013arXiv1309.3295J drives intractable conflict. PNAS 11(44):15687–15692 Leidner B, Castano E, Zaiser E, Giner-Sorolla R (2010) Ingroup glorification, moral Wood SN, Pya N, Saefken B (2016) Smoothing parameter and model selection for disengagement, and justice in the context of collective violence. Personal Soc general smooth models (with discussion). J Am Stat Assoc 111:1548–1575. Psychol Bull 36(8):1115–1129 https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2016.1180986 Llaneras K (2017) El apoyo a la independencia tiene raíces económicas y de origen social, Zmigrod L, Rentfrow PJ, Robbins TW (2018) Cognitive underpinnings of natio- El País. https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/09/28/ratio/1506601198_808440. nalistic ideology in the context of Brexit. PNAS 115(19):E4532–E4540 html Lustick IS, Miodownik D, Eidelson RJ (2004) Secessionism in multicultural states: does sharing power prevent or encourage it? Am Political Sci Rev 98:209–229 Marí-Klose P (2018) Cataluña deshilachada: procesos de desintegración de una Acknowledgements comunidad imaginada. In: Coll J, Molina I, Arias-Maldonado M (eds) Damián Gil M.D. provided the first script that permitted to build the database of the full Anatomía del procés. Debate, Madrid, pp 221–246 series of CEO Barometers. OEC Group members provided lively discussions with suggestions Mason L (2018) Uncivil agreement: how politics became our identity. University that improved and helped to focus the present research. A.T. work was partially supported by Chicago Press AFOSR-MINERVA FA9550-18-0496 Grant and Bial Foundation Grant 163/14. 12 PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z ARTICLE Competing interests Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons The authors declare no competing interests. Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Additional information Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party Supplementary information is available for this paper at https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599- material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless 019-0357-z. indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to A.T. regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/ Reprints and permission information is available at http://www.nature.com/reprints licenses/by/4.0/. Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. © The Author(s) 2019 PALGRAVE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 5:148 | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0357-z | www.nature.com/palcomms 13

Journal

Humanities and Social Sciences CommunicationsSpringer Journals

Published: Nov 26, 2019

Keywords: politics and international relations; social policy

There are no references for this article.