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An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility for China, 1952–2000

An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility for China, 1952–2000 This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952–2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10–12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development – consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis – played a key role in China's fertility transition. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies Taylor & Francis

An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility for China, 1952–2000

19 pages

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References (51)

Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Copyright
Copyright Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
ISSN
1476-5292
eISSN
1476-5284
DOI
10.1080/14765280600737039
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952–2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10–12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development – consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis – played a key role in China's fertility transition.

Journal

Journal of Chinese Economic and Business StudiesTaylor & Francis

Published: Jul 1, 2006

Keywords: China; fertility transition; cointegration; family planning policy; social economic development; JEL Classifications: J13; C22; C52

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