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Shifted models cannot be used for predicting responses of biodiversity to global change: the African elephant as an example

Shifted models cannot be used for predicting responses of biodiversity to global change: the... African Zoology 2022, 57(1): 70–73 Copyright © Zoological Society Printed in South Africa — All rights reserved of Southern Africa AFRICAN ZOOLOGY ISSN 1562-7020 EISSN 2224-073X https://doi.org/10.1080/15627020.2022.2053883 Letter to the Editor Shifted models cannot be used for predicting responses of biodiversity to global change: the African elephant as an example 1 1,2 Graham IH Kerley * and Sophie Monsarrat Centre for African Conservation Ecology, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha, South Africa Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE) & Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus City, Denmark *Correspondence: graham.kerley@mandela.ac.za Introduction Human activities have affected animals’ behaviour, birth on open beaches to now giving birth in sea caves distribution and population structure and this effect is represents a behavioural shift (González 2015). Britnell et predicted to increase in the future. Considerable effort is al. (2021) argue further that biases in research because of therefore being focussed on understanding and predicting failure to recognise such shifted niches further exacerbates such future changes in response to anthropogenic pressures, misconceptions in our understanding of species’ ecological this to better conserve and restore populations and species. requirements and roles, this leading to artificial stereotyping However, there is a http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png African Zoology Taylor & Francis

Shifted models cannot be used for predicting responses of biodiversity to global change: the African elephant as an example

Kerley, Graham IH; Monsarrat, Sophie
African Zoology , Volume 57 (1): 4 – Jan 2, 2022
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Shifted models cannot be used for predicting responses of biodiversity to global change: the African elephant as an example

Abstract

African Zoology 2022, 57(1): 70–73 Copyright © Zoological Society Printed in South Africa — All rights reserved of Southern Africa AFRICAN ZOOLOGY ISSN 1562-7020 EISSN 2224-073X https://doi.org/10.1080/15627020.2022.2053883 Letter to the Editor Shifted models cannot be used for predicting responses of biodiversity to global change: the African elephant as an example 1 1,2 Graham IH Kerley * and Sophie Monsarrat Centre for African Conservation Ecology, Nelson Mandela...
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Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Copyright
© 2022 Zoological Society of Southern Africa
ISSN
2224-073X
eISSN
1562-7020
DOI
10.1080/15627020.2022.2053883
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

African Zoology 2022, 57(1): 70–73 Copyright © Zoological Society Printed in South Africa — All rights reserved of Southern Africa AFRICAN ZOOLOGY ISSN 1562-7020 EISSN 2224-073X https://doi.org/10.1080/15627020.2022.2053883 Letter to the Editor Shifted models cannot be used for predicting responses of biodiversity to global change: the African elephant as an example 1 1,2 Graham IH Kerley * and Sophie Monsarrat Centre for African Conservation Ecology, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha, South Africa Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE) & Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus City, Denmark *Correspondence: graham.kerley@mandela.ac.za Introduction Human activities have affected animals’ behaviour, birth on open beaches to now giving birth in sea caves distribution and population structure and this effect is represents a behavioural shift (González 2015). Britnell et predicted to increase in the future. Considerable effort is al. (2021) argue further that biases in research because of therefore being focussed on understanding and predicting failure to recognise such shifted niches further exacerbates such future changes in response to anthropogenic pressures, misconceptions in our understanding of species’ ecological this to better conserve and restore populations and species. requirements and roles, this leading to artificial stereotyping However, there is a

Journal

African Zoology – Taylor & Francis

Published: Jan 2, 2022

References

  • The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling
  • Species stereotypes as a result of unconscious research biases compromise conservation efficacy
  • Modelling continental range shift of the African elephant (Loxodonta africana) under a changing climate and land cover: implications for future conservation of the species
  • Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts
  • Worldclim 2: New 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas
  • Prehistoric and historic distributions of the critically endangered Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus monachus) in the eastern Atlantic
  • Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models
  • Concluding remarks
  • Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species’ ranges
  • The Protected Area Paradox and refugee species: The giant panda and baselines shifted towards conserving species in marginal habitats
  • Conservation implications of the refugee species concept and the European bison: king of the forest or refugee in a marginal habitat?
  • Recognition and management of ecological refugees: A case study of the Cape mountain zebra
  • Using fossil records to inform reintroduction of the kakapo as a refugee species
  • Coping with heat: behavioural and physiological responses of savanna elephants in their natural habitat
  • Anthropocene refugia: integrating history and predictive modelling to assess the space available for biodiversity in a human-dominated world
  • Shifted distribution baselines: neglecting long-term biodiversity records risks overlooking potentially suitable habitat for conservation management
  • The decline of the Knysna elephants: Pattern and hypotheses
  • Anecdotes and the shifting baseline syndrome of fisheries
  • Desert-dwelling African elephants (Loxodonta africana) in Namibia dig wells to purify drinking water
  • The effect of past defaunation on ranges, niches, and future biodiversity forecasts
  • Human footprint and protected areas shape elephant range across Africa