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Time–frequency analysis of cryptocurrency attention

Time–frequency analysis of cryptocurrency attention We present a wavelet analysis of retail investor attention and the daily returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin at five selected crypto exchanges that identifies the fractal dynamics of the short- and long-term persistent processes. The investors’ attention is proxied by the Search Volume Index provided by Google at daily frequency. We detect significant temporal cyclical movements and coherence between cryptocurrency returns and retail investor attention at long investment horizons: from the beginning of 2017 to the middle of 2018 and, to a lesser degree, in 2019. Investment horizons that dominated in 2017 and 2018 were mainly driven by retail investor attention rather than by uncertainty, risk, or stock markets. Therefore, we do not confirm that cryptocurrencies can be considered a safe-haven asset in times of crisis because there is no significant negative comovement between the returns of cryptocurrencies and stock returns or economic uncertainty. Furthermore, the phase shift analysis indicates that attention can serve as a leading indicator for the cryptocurrency returns, particularly in 2017 and 2018. Therefore, retail investors are encouraged to use the Search Volume Index as an early warning indicator in case of sudden changes in the cryptocurrency returns to maximise profits or minimise losses. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Investment Analysts Journal Taylor & Francis

Time–frequency analysis of cryptocurrency attention

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Time–frequency analysis of cryptocurrency attention

Abstract

We present a wavelet analysis of retail investor attention and the daily returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin at five selected crypto exchanges that identifies the fractal dynamics of the short- and long-term persistent processes. The investors’ attention is proxied by the Search Volume Index provided by Google at daily frequency. We detect significant temporal cyclical movements and coherence between cryptocurrency returns and retail investor attention at long investment...
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Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Copyright
© 2023 Investment Analysts Society of South Africa
ISSN
2077-0227
eISSN
1029-3523
DOI
10.1080/10293523.2023.2198755
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We present a wavelet analysis of retail investor attention and the daily returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin at five selected crypto exchanges that identifies the fractal dynamics of the short- and long-term persistent processes. The investors’ attention is proxied by the Search Volume Index provided by Google at daily frequency. We detect significant temporal cyclical movements and coherence between cryptocurrency returns and retail investor attention at long investment horizons: from the beginning of 2017 to the middle of 2018 and, to a lesser degree, in 2019. Investment horizons that dominated in 2017 and 2018 were mainly driven by retail investor attention rather than by uncertainty, risk, or stock markets. Therefore, we do not confirm that cryptocurrencies can be considered a safe-haven asset in times of crisis because there is no significant negative comovement between the returns of cryptocurrencies and stock returns or economic uncertainty. Furthermore, the phase shift analysis indicates that attention can serve as a leading indicator for the cryptocurrency returns, particularly in 2017 and 2018. Therefore, retail investors are encouraged to use the Search Volume Index as an early warning indicator in case of sudden changes in the cryptocurrency returns to maximise profits or minimise losses.

Journal

Investment Analysts Journal – Taylor & Francis

Published: May 9, 2023

Keywords: cryptocurrencies; attention; Search Volume Index; wavelet analysis; G14; C14; C58

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