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TIME LAG IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE, WAR, AND POPULATION RELATIONSHIP: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

TIME LAG IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE, WAR, AND POPULATION RELATIONSHIP: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Abstract Wars became more frequent in a cold climate at the macro-historical scale. However, war peaks and their associated population collapses appeared ~20–30 years after the commencement of a cold climate. Following Zhang et al.'s (2007a) conceptual model, this paper sought to further examine the climate-war-population time lag by using mathematical means. Result was: the relatively slow natural population adjustment to the climate-induced fluctuations in agricultural production generated the time lag between the climate, war, and population cycles in historical agrarian societies. This finding may lend a new dimension to the classic Malthusianism and have current implications to the less developed countries near the tropics. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Asian Geographer Taylor & Francis

TIME LAG IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE, WAR, AND POPULATION RELATIONSHIP: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

LEE, Harry F.; FOK, Lincoln; ZHANG, David D.
Asian Geographer , Volume 26 (1-2): 12 – Jan 1, 2009
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TIME LAG IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE, WAR, AND POPULATION RELATIONSHIP: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

Abstract

Abstract Wars became more frequent in a cold climate at the macro-historical scale. However, war peaks and their associated population collapses appeared ~20–30 years after the commencement of a cold climate. Following Zhang et al.'s (2007a) conceptual model, this paper sought to further examine the climate-war-population time lag by using mathematical means. Result was: the relatively slow natural population adjustment to the climate-induced fluctuations in agricultural...
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Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Copyright
Copyright Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
ISSN
2158-1762
eISSN
1022-5706
DOI
10.1080/10225706.2009.9684145
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Abstract Wars became more frequent in a cold climate at the macro-historical scale. However, war peaks and their associated population collapses appeared ~20–30 years after the commencement of a cold climate. Following Zhang et al.'s (2007a) conceptual model, this paper sought to further examine the climate-war-population time lag by using mathematical means. Result was: the relatively slow natural population adjustment to the climate-induced fluctuations in agricultural production generated the time lag between the climate, war, and population cycles in historical agrarian societies. This finding may lend a new dimension to the classic Malthusianism and have current implications to the less developed countries near the tropics.

Journal

Asian Geographer – Taylor & Francis

Published: Jan 1, 2009

Keywords: Climate change; wars; population feedback; time lag; agrarian societies

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