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Phases of the Canadian business cycle

Phases of the Canadian business cycle In this paper we contrast a number of univariate models of Canadian GDP. Our preferred models are used to provide a business cycle chronology for Canada, which is compared with some existing, more judgmentally determined chronologies. We find that a simple, ‘two quarters of negative growth’ rule for determining recession dates is the most similar to our chronology. We also find that the most recent recession in Canada was unique in both its length and the slow speed of recovery. JEL Classification: C22, C51, C52, E32 http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne D'économique Wiley

Phases of the Canadian business cycle

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 2000 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
ISSN
0008-4085
eISSN
1540-5982
DOI
10.1111/0008-4085.00033
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

In this paper we contrast a number of univariate models of Canadian GDP. Our preferred models are used to provide a business cycle chronology for Canada, which is compared with some existing, more judgmentally determined chronologies. We find that a simple, ‘two quarters of negative growth’ rule for determining recession dates is the most similar to our chronology. We also find that the most recent recession in Canada was unique in both its length and the slow speed of recovery. JEL Classification: C22, C51, C52, E32

Journal

Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne D'économique – Wiley

Published: Aug 1, 2000

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