Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

Simulating urban growth in a megalopolitan area using a patch‐based cellular automata

Simulating urban growth in a megalopolitan area using a patch‐based cellular automata Although traditional cellular automata (CA)‐based models can effectively simulate urban land‐use changes, they typically ignore the spatial evolution of urban patches, due to their use of cell‐based simulation strategies. This research proposes a new patch‐based CA model to incorporate a spatial constraint based on the growth patterns of urban patches into the conventional CA model for reducing the uncertainty of the distribution of simulated new urban patches. In this model, the growth pattern of urban patches is first estimated using a developed indicator that is based on the local variations in existing urban patches. The urban growth is then simulated by integrating the estimated growth pattern and land suitability using a pattern‐calibrated method. In this method, the pattern of new urban patches is gradually calibrated toward the dominant growth pattern through the steps of the CA model. The proposed model is applied to simulate urban growth in the Tehran megalopolitan area during 2000–2006–2012. The results from this model were compared with two common models: cell‐based CA and logistic‐patch CA. The proposed model yields a degree of patch‐level agreement that is 23.4 and 7.5% higher than those of these pre‐existing models, respectively. This reveals that the patch‐based CA model simulates actual development patterns much better than the two other models. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Transactions in Gis Wiley

Simulating urban growth in a megalopolitan area using a patch‐based cellular automata

Loading next page...
 
/lp/wiley/simulating-urban-growth-in-a-megalopolitan-area-using-a-patch-based-F4q0Dwk0rU

References (59)

Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
ISSN
1361-1682
eISSN
1467-9671
DOI
10.1111/tgis.12309
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Although traditional cellular automata (CA)‐based models can effectively simulate urban land‐use changes, they typically ignore the spatial evolution of urban patches, due to their use of cell‐based simulation strategies. This research proposes a new patch‐based CA model to incorporate a spatial constraint based on the growth patterns of urban patches into the conventional CA model for reducing the uncertainty of the distribution of simulated new urban patches. In this model, the growth pattern of urban patches is first estimated using a developed indicator that is based on the local variations in existing urban patches. The urban growth is then simulated by integrating the estimated growth pattern and land suitability using a pattern‐calibrated method. In this method, the pattern of new urban patches is gradually calibrated toward the dominant growth pattern through the steps of the CA model. The proposed model is applied to simulate urban growth in the Tehran megalopolitan area during 2000–2006–2012. The results from this model were compared with two common models: cell‐based CA and logistic‐patch CA. The proposed model yields a degree of patch‐level agreement that is 23.4 and 7.5% higher than those of these pre‐existing models, respectively. This reveals that the patch‐based CA model simulates actual development patterns much better than the two other models.

Journal

Transactions in GisWiley

Published: Jan 1, 2018

There are no references for this article.