Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

Using disaster‐induced closures to evaluate discrete choice models of hospital demand

Using disaster‐induced closures to evaluate discrete choice models of hospital demand Although diversion ratios are important inputs to merger evaluation, there is little evidence about how accurately discrete choice models predict diversions. Using a series of natural disasters that unexpectedly closed hospitals, we compare observed post‐disaster diversion ratios to those predicted from pre‐disaster data using standard models of hospital demand. We find that all standard models consistently underpredict large diversions. Both unobserved heterogeneity in preferences over travel and post‐disaster changes to physician practice patterns can explain some of the underprediction of large diversions. We find a significant improvement using models with a random coefficient on distance. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Rand Journal of Economics Wiley

Using disaster‐induced closures to evaluate discrete choice models of hospital demand

Loading next page...
 
/lp/wiley/using-disaster-induced-closures-to-evaluate-discrete-choice-models-of-TULD601Y0R

References (22)

Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
© 2022 The RAND Corporation.
ISSN
0741-6261
eISSN
1756-2171
DOI
10.1111/1756-2171.12421
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Although diversion ratios are important inputs to merger evaluation, there is little evidence about how accurately discrete choice models predict diversions. Using a series of natural disasters that unexpectedly closed hospitals, we compare observed post‐disaster diversion ratios to those predicted from pre‐disaster data using standard models of hospital demand. We find that all standard models consistently underpredict large diversions. Both unobserved heterogeneity in preferences over travel and post‐disaster changes to physician practice patterns can explain some of the underprediction of large diversions. We find a significant improvement using models with a random coefficient on distance.

Journal

The Rand Journal of EconomicsWiley

Published: Sep 1, 2022

Keywords: antitrust; diversion ratio; hospitals; natural experiment; patient choice

There are no references for this article.