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When Payouts Pay Off: Conditional Cash Transfers and Voting Behavior in Brazil 2002–10

When Payouts Pay Off: Conditional Cash Transfers and Voting Behavior in Brazil 2002–10 This article estimates the electoral effects of conditional cash transfers (CCTs) in three presidential elections in Brazil. It analyzes municipal‐level electoral results and survey data and employs matching techniques to reduce causal inference problems typical of observational studies. Results show that CCTs are associated with increased performance by the incumbent party presidential candidate in all three elections but that these effects have been reaped by incumbents from different parties. It also shows that CCTs have had no discernible impacts on party identification and the performance of incumbent parties in legislative elections. Together, these findings suggest that CCTs are significant in the short run, but lack the capacity to induce substantial long‐term voter realignments. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png American Journal of Political Science Wiley

When Payouts Pay Off: Conditional Cash Transfers and Voting Behavior in Brazil 2002–10

Zucco, Cesar
American Journal of Political Science , Volume 57 (4) – Oct 1, 2013
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13 pages

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
©2013, by the Midwest Political Science Association
ISSN
0092-5853
eISSN
1540-5907
DOI
10.1111/ajps.12026
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This article estimates the electoral effects of conditional cash transfers (CCTs) in three presidential elections in Brazil. It analyzes municipal‐level electoral results and survey data and employs matching techniques to reduce causal inference problems typical of observational studies. Results show that CCTs are associated with increased performance by the incumbent party presidential candidate in all three elections but that these effects have been reaped by incumbents from different parties. It also shows that CCTs have had no discernible impacts on party identification and the performance of incumbent parties in legislative elections. Together, these findings suggest that CCTs are significant in the short run, but lack the capacity to induce substantial long‐term voter realignments.

Journal

American Journal of Political Science – Wiley

Published: Oct 1, 2013

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