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ORIGINAL ARTICLE A Bayesian Model for Age, Period, and Cohort Effects on Mortality Trends for Lung Cancer, in Association with Gender-Specific Incidence and Case–Fatality Rates Chun-Ru Chien, MD, PhD,* and Tony Hsiu-Hsi Chen, PhD† lthough time trends in lung cancer incidence and mortal- Introduction: To study time trends in lung cancer mortality by 1– 4 Aity have been studied previously, it is of interest to separating the incidence and case–fatality rates, in association with study these in a country such as Taiwan, with a low but age, period, and cohort effects. rapidly increasing incidence rate for lung cancer. Lung cancer Methods: Lung cancer cases (n 44,139) diagnosed between 1996 1,2,4,5 is the leading cancer in Taiwan and accounts for 19.6% and 2002 in Taiwan were analyzed by decomposing the time trend of deaths from cancer, with the highest increase in mortality in mortality into incidence and case–fatality rates. Descriptive data, 1–3,5 for both men and women worldwide. together with periodical treatment distribution (surgery, chemother- The advent of new treatments may contribute to the time apy, and others) were analyzed using a Bayesian age, period, and trends in case–fatality rates, which in turn affect mortality. cohort (BAPC) model. Although
Journal of Thoracic Oncology – Wolters Kluwer Health
Published: Feb 1, 2009
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